The problem with your theory is that it assumes there are plenty of Americans willing to work those jobs at minimum wage once the illegals drive the prices down to that level.
If liberalism has proven anything it has proven there are plenty of native born Americans that would rather sit on their behinds and collect a government check rather than work minimum wage. I don't see how driving unskilled wages down to minimum legal helps anyone but the employers, and that benefit is only short term up to the point where many unemployed Americans can't afford their services anymore.
I'm back to my original point. Illegals will have to be driven out of this country by force. They won't leave up to the very point where they have to and they have a distinct advantage in the workplace because they are willing to work for much less money and benefits. They hold that advantage regardless they are here legally or not - and you can look around everywhere and see this.
At conventional (ie, legit) wages, there is no shortage of people willing to do construction work, especially at union rates.
Most people think that jobs like mechanics’, carpenters’, plumbers’, etc — pay squat.
You’re oh-so-wrong if you think this.
At legit wage rates (non-union), these are well-paying jobs. We’re talking $25/hour and up.
At union rates, they’re fantastic paying jobs. Think $35/hour and up, especially on overtime jobs. On union job sites here in Nevada, the people you see standing in traffic, flagging traffic to go around construction? They’re being paid $25 and up. To wave a little flag in traffic.
There’s NO shortage of people willing to be paid $25/hour to wave a little flag on road construction sites. None.
That’s why the illegals moved into the construction industry so quickly during the recent housing boom: subs (ie, sub-contractor) companies found that they could get lots of contracts with generals (ie, general contractors) on these large housing developments by employing illegals and undercutting *all* the legit competition on blind price bids where there was no requirement for verifying the employment of people by the subs.
If employers are forced to verify employment eligibility, forced to pay legit wages and taxes, penalized for employing illegals, etc — they price differential for employing suddenly legit former illegals simply vanishes. If the illegals made legit by this proposed legislation are then unionized, they’re not going to be paid minimum wage, I can assure you.
This is why I don’t get why the business community is thinking they’re going to get something wonderful out of this comprehensive immigration “reform” — unless it will do nothing to stem the flow of illegals, which it obviously wouldn’t. The illegals who become legal suddenly will find themselves out of work just as low-skilled US workers have been displaced by illegals. This blows a huge hole in the argument(s) by the business community that this legislation “regularizes” illegals and makes them legit. If it did, then business employment costs would go up very quickly, which is exactly what these business don’t want.
So you and I are in high agreement that the legislation won’t do anything to cure illegals coming in. What I’m saying is that the claims by the business community about the results of the legislation and the business effects of the results of the legislation are at variance, and the variance isn’t one beneficial to those business employing illegals.
You’re never going to see the pansy politicians in DC use force to drive out the illegals. Ain’t gonna happen. They lack the spine and testicular fortitude to enforce our borders, which would be necessary before you start rounding up people and shipping them back, so they don’t just turn around and come right back in.
You’re going to need a physical barrier first. Then you’re going to have to round up some of them (ala Eisenhower’s tactics) to set an example, and then come down on employers with airtight employment eligibility verification, with safe harbor for employers to fire anyone who gets a SSA “variance” letter or to not hire anyone who has ID problems come back from a government ID check. Once you have the employers on the hook for verifying ID’s, then the illegal ID mills dry up, the ID thefts dry up, the illegals find they have no ID documents to either get jobs or get social services, and they have no economic base of support. They’re going to go home (or somewhere else), rather than starve here.
I forgot to add another example of jobs that Americans WILL do. It is literally right in my neighborhood here in Nevada.
Here in Nevada, we produce the majority of gold that is mined in the US. Most people who have never been around a mine site aren’t familiar with the mining regs for safety, etc. There is a whole federal agency charged with mine safety — MSHA - Mine Safety and Health Administration, within the Dep’t of Labor.
Mines don’t employ illegals. Want to know why? Because their records are audited and discrepancies within their employment docs cause real civil fines. Illegals are also used to taking shortcuts of all manners, and any miner who takes safety shortcuts is quickly fired or hazed off the job site, because causing “lost time” accidents means that the entire crew loses their safety bonus (worth thousands to over $10K/year) at the end of the year.
The mines (even the non-union mines) pay $18/hour to START, doing nothing more challenging than driving a haul-pak (huge dump truck) around in circles. That’s it. $18/hour, plus bennies (medical/401(k), perhaps profit sharing, plus educational bonuses) and they can get all manner of people driving those trucks. Kids right out of high school, college grads, housewives, professional miners, etc.
What is the requirement? A clean driving record, pass a drug test, clean documentation. And they’re going to verify all of it, because if they don’t, MSHA very well might catch the problems.
People operating a loader or shovel make $25/hour on up. Mechanics are being paid $25/hour on up. Again, this is from a local mine here, which is not unionized.
Underground mining is now typically done by professional miners working for contract companies specializing in underground mining and underground mine engineering. They make very tidy salaries, with experienced miners working for these outfits making upwards of $90K/year, plus bennies.
You can’t show me a shortage of applicants for those jobs at those wages.
Now, here is the catch: Even contractors working on a mine site MUST have MSHA certification. Even if you’re doing something really low-level — like changing tires, or you’re doing basic construction work, welding, etc. You have to have your MSHA card/training, and your docs must be clean. This closes the “sub-contractor” or “contractor” loopholes that have depressed wages in construction.
There ya go. Americans will do these jobs, and the fact that the mines can find people to do some very dirty, hard jobs (you wouldn’t believe the dust, smoke, noise and heat on mining sites) without problem. And illegals aren’t undercutting the salaries because the docs are checked and cross-checked.