Russia: Using Missile Defense as a Geopolitical Lever

Stratfor ^ | June 12, 2007 19 45 GMT | George Friedman

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Russian President Vladmir Putin threw a classic Cold War curveball during his chat with U.S. President George W. Bush at the G-8 summit. Having totally opposed the creation of a U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) system in Poland and the Czech Republic, Putin suddenly shifted his position, saying he might go along with a BMD system under certain conditions. The system, he said, would be acceptable if the United States used a Russian radar system placed in Azerbaijan and based its interceptor missiles anywhere else, such as on ships or in Turkey or Iraq -- anywhere but in Poland.

By rejecting the proposal, Washington would look hostile and uncompromising. Accepting it would mean basing the missiles near the Iranian border, possibly too close to intercept long-range missiles fired from there. Using Russian radar -- which currently is insufficient for U.S. needs -- would make the entire system dependent on Russian cooperation. And pulling the system from Poland would be a signal to Central Europe that military agreements with the United States are subject to negotiation with the Russians. That, of course, is exactly the signal Putin wants sent.

First, let's consider the BMD system itself. There are two criticisms of it, usually made by the same people. The first is that it won't work, and the second is that it is destabilizing. That the two statements are incompatible does not seem to faze most people. Therefore, it is necessary to begin by explaining the reason the BMD is such a passionate issue.

The foundation of stability during the Cold War was Mutually Assured Destruction, or MAD. MAD was based on the certainty that an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), once launched, could not be blocked.

[TChris]

Bush needs to stop all the feel-good rhetoric about "cooperation", both in domestic and international relations. "Cooperation" is usually just newspeak for compromise and concession. America's interests are progressively frittered away so Mr. Bush can be a "compassionate conservative."

Our BMD system doesn't need the cooperation of Russia. Our relations with Poland are none of Russia's business. Poland's defense is her own matter, and Russia can kindly buzz off.

This whole thing has the smell of a situation that Mr. Bush didn't take the time to think through. Putin is playing him like a fiddle.

[Vn_survivor_67-68]

Mr. Bush didn’t take the time to think through. Putin is playing him like a fiddle.

I can’t WAIT until Tony Snow tackles this one.....

(a bit more from stratfor)
If the Russians can get the Americans to switch from Poland, and place the missiles just about anywhere else, the Russians will have achieved their goal. The Russians have a lingering distaste for the BMD — but the real issue is to force a U.S. retreat from Poland.

[SeafoodGumbo]

When Putin came up with a list of countries where we could host our anti-missile bases, Bush should have told him to mind his own business as Putin has told us on many occasions, instead of saying he'd consider the idea or whatever mealy-mouthed, equivocal answer he did give.

Tell Putin to piss up a rope.

[Tallguy]

Our poker-playing president just got check-raised by Putin.