I just have a little concern about the expectation game. The expectation is UMP will win anywhere from 380 to 501 seats. Any win closer to 380 will be seen and labeled as a ‘failure’ by their critics, even though the number may be big enough to make the reform works.
I understand your concern, but I think the numbers you cited are just the purely hypothetical mathematical possibilities, not the reality of the polls.
The latest IPSOS poll just out shows:
132-167 seats All parties on the left : PC, PS, and Greens
408-440 seats UDF and allied Right
The Left is in total disarray. The new MoDem is a failure.