Posted on 06/15/2007 11:44:48 AM PDT by Congressman Billybob
You’d think that what happens in western Carolina, in the 11th Congressional District, isn’t very important to the powers-that-be in Washington. That’s usually so. But not now. And two extraordinary events that have occurred a year and a half before the 2008 election for that seat, prove the point.
Some of you are aware of the TV ads now being run by AFSCME that paint freshman Congressman Heath Shuler, NC 11th, as a good guy. The ad sponsor’s full name is American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees. This union is committed to steady expansion of government at all levels, supported by more taxes at all levels.
Why is that union, part of the left wing of the Democratic Party, supporting Heath Shuler (who ran as a “conservative” Democrat) a year before he announces for reelection? It’s simple. AFSCME is practical. If Shuler gets challenged by a hard-line liberal Democrat, like most of the Democrats who have run for this seat over the years, there are two possible bad outcomes. The liberal might beat Shuler and get trounced in the general election. Or, the liberal might damage Shuler so much that he will lose the general.
This exceptional action by this national union in 2007, has a clear meaning. The unions are trying to scare off any liberal competition for Shuler in his primary. It’s a message that the unions are satisfied that they can work with Shuler for union issues in Congress.
And what gives them that assurance? Shuler has reliably voted with Speaker Nancy Pelosi on critical votes in the House, except when he sought permission to stray – on issues like stem cell research where she had the winning votes anyway, and Heath pleaded for a little independence for the sake of the folks back home.
Are the Republicans taking the 11th District as seriously in 2008? Yes, they are, as shown by the fact that the chief political strategist in the White House, Karl Rove, came to the District recently to address the annual Convention of the Republicans here. Why would someone that important show up here?
The 11th District was one of about 9 Districts which have been Republican for a decade or more, that should have stayed that way even in 2006, but which the Democrats managed to take. These few Districts make up almost half of the seats the Republicans need to retake control of the House.
Who are the voters in the 11th District? We have a few more Democrats than Republicans, but independents (those who “declined” to name a party) occupy the center, about 11% of the total. Many of the independents, and a significant number of the Democrats are like Zell Miller, former Senator from Georgia who lives just across the state line from us. These are, like Zell, conservative folks who happen to bear the label Democrat or independent.
The man who held this seat for the Republicans for 16 years, Charles Taylor, is making noises about running again. I think the only likely way for the Republicans to lose this seat to Shuler again, would be if Taylor gets the Republican nomination. Here’s why:
Taylor used to be one of the most powerful Republicans in Washington. He got himself in trouble in a number of ways. He wound up losing to a rookie with no experience – while spending a million dollars more than the challenger. Taylor was supposedly a sharp cookie. Shuler’s obviously not the sharpest tool in the shed. But Shuler won in 2006.
For 2008, Shuler is stronger, Taylor is weaker. If it’s the same race, the result will be the same. On the other hand, if the Republicans run an experienced, knowledgeable, honest candidate, both parties will bring in their big guns, but the Republican should win comfortably.
And, the 11th District is, next year, a mine canary for all the House races. Win or lose, the fate of the Republicans nationally will probably be the same as here, in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
[As a matter of full disclosure, the author ran for this seat in 2006, losing to Taylor in the primary.]
- 30 -
About the Author: John Armor practiced in the US Supreme Court for 33 years. John_Armor@aya.yale.edu He lives in the 11th District of North Carolina.
- 30 -
John / Billybob
Well, I hope you get permission.
has anyone over there noticed that Heath Shuler is as dumb as a box of rocks? Just asking.
I don’t know about Shuler, but our new Congressman (Patrick Murphy) wouldn’t challenge a box of rocks either. The democrat party is looking for hacks who will follow their directions, perhaps?
He got canned more for (oops!) "forgetting" to vote "nay" on CAFTA than any other single thing. Not everybody up there can work for a resort hotel, and the mills are going down the tubes. They're not going to elect a business-as-usual Republican over this Shuler, who campaigned in opposition to trade deals resulting in job loss, and the elephant in the room, illegal immigration. It remains to be seen, if Shuler will actually vote as he campaigned, though. If he goes along with his party, he'll be out.
He'll do just what the article says, make show votes for the folks back home when Pelosi doesn't need his vote, and vote with her the rest of the time. All smoke and mirrors.
Trade is an easy issue for him, the Dems have been anti-free trade for decades.
And, in places like NC-11, free trade has become a tough sell, and with good reason, from their experience and perspective. A breezy "oh, just go back to community college" doesn't cut it, with someone who has been put out of a job three times in the past five years, due to manufacturing facilities closing here and moving production to Guatemala or some other third world nation. I'm aquainted with several people in just such a position, and they're feeling anything but positive about Republicans due to trade policy. Try to tell them that NAFTA was signed into law by Clinton, and they come back with the Republican Congress that sent it to him. There's a problem here, and until it's recognized, you're going to see a repeat of this scenario, where ever there has been job loss due to trade policy. It's going to hand House seats over to Democrats on a silver platter.
If the Republican Party turns protectionist and opposed to free trade, that’ll create a “problem” for my support.
The pace of change has been entirely too rapid. These rural areas can’t seem to recover from previous setbacks, before they’re dealt another.
John / Billybob
John / Billybob
John / Billybob
Mountain folks have always been susceptible to a populist campaign, CBB. Policies that have been, rightly or wrongly, associated entirely with the GOP are becoming highly unpopular. But, they are conservative traditionalists at heart. Pounce on every single instance of Shuler going against popular opinion in the 11th. Provide plausible alternatives to the socialist policies of Democrats. That will get you a long way towards your objective. Taylor, should he decide to run for his old seat, will be just as vulnerable as he was last fall, on his cute little “oops, I forgot to vote” CAFTA lie, his corruption ... he became the prototypical fat cat that your potential constituents detest, for the most part.
John / Billybob
I have my doubts there is any such creature these days.
L
“If the Republican Party turns protectionist and opposed to free trade, that’ll create a “problem” for my support.”
So it’s ok with you if China builds a car plant in Mexico and ships their cars into the US duty-free under NAFTA rules while still charging us tariffs to ship to their country?
I’d vote for you even if you’re ‘nominated and will not run, elected and will not serve.’
You provide a great service to FR, either way. So, thanks! :)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.