Posted on 06/18/2007 8:00:49 PM PDT by kellynla
PRINCETON, NJ -- With no incumbent president or vice president running for the 2008 presidential nominations, it is perhaps not surprising that both of the major parties have competitive races, with multiple candidates jockeying for second, if not first, place. Still, the current outlines of voter preferences in the Republican and Democratic nomination battles are remarkably similar.
According to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll of national adults, conducted June 11-14, 2007, each race is characterized by a front-runner attracting about 30% of the potential primary vote nationwide, followed by two candidates garnering about 20% support each in a close contest for second place, and a slew of weaker candidates, each supported by no more than 11%.
Continuing the parallels, the race for second place in both parties features one announced candidate who has earned fairly steady support throughout the year (mostly failing to build momentum) and one unannounced candidate with growing support, just recently pulling into a tie for second.
The Democratic Contest
The current Democratic front-runner is Sen. Hillary Clinton. She is favored by 33% of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic -- about average for her this year.
A USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted earlier this month found Clinton's chief rival, Sen. Barack Obama, pulling even with Clinton. However, in the current poll Obama has fallen back to a tie for second place with former Vice President Al Gore. At 21%, current support for Obama is near the low end of the support range seen for him since January, while Gore's 18% ties with an early March poll as his best result.
Former Sen. John Edwards, once tied with Gore for third place, has been stalled in the 11% to 12% range since May.
(Excerpt) Read more at galluppoll.com ...
I suppose “national adults” includes illegals, too. Why not?
I swear, I don’t know how these polling outfits stay in business...I mean so many folks have cell phones, answering machines or voice mail, unlisted numbers, caller ID and on and on...who the heck do these polling outfits talk to? LOL
In all my life, I have never even been contacted by a polling outfit much less responded to one.
"In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls."
"Political science" isn't really science. Just because they use statistics and a few mathematical models, that doesn't make it a real science of any sort. (I say the same of psychology and similar fields.)
I have actually worked for a couple of them, Gallup and Yankelovitch. And I studied statistics. They do some serious work when it is comissioned, but the polls we see are just to manufacture news. That is easier than reporting.
... while Gore's 18% ties with an early March poll as his best result.Will someone with one of those magic, fortune-telling 8-balls tell me if Gore is going to run or not?
btt
Why else do they print ballots in Spanish if it isn’t for the illegals? Just wait until we have a Latino President ready to give back the southwest to Mexico.
If immigration passes it is a big win for Hillary and the democrats. Bush is pushing this bill forward very rapidly, WHY? Does he want a Hillary win. It would complete a circle Bush Sr, Clinon (2 terms), Bush Jr (2 terms), ... Hillarious. Things are coming to light and it don’t look good.
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