Posted on 06/28/2007 12:41:41 AM PDT by bruinbirdman
The majority opinion is that the occupation in Iraq has been so bungled that the blowback has ruined American efforts at promoting positive change throughout the Middle East.
Perhaps. But for all the justifiable criticism of the Iraqi reconstruction, two truths still remain — the United States is taking an enormous toll on jihadists, and despite the terrible cost in blood and treasure, has not given up on a constitutional government in Iraq.
The Sunni front-line states, who subsidized jihadists and still enjoy our misery in Iraq , , but they are now terrified that these killers, in league with the Iranians, will turn on them. The net result is not just that some Sunnis are helping us in Iraq, but that they are being urged to for the first time by those in the Arab world, who would prefer to see the Iraqi government, rather than the terrorists, succeed. And if Iraq is still a terrible disappointment, Kurdistan is emerging as a success few envisioned, refuting some conventional wisdom about the incompatibility of capitalism and constitutional government with Middle Eastern Islam.
Theocratic Iran is not exactly as “empowered” as is generally alleged, but in the greatest crisis of its miserable existence. As the mullahs up the ante in the region, they could very soon not only lose Iraq, but also their own dictatorship. Trying to oppose the West in Iraq, Lebanon, and the West Bank is taking an enormous financial toll, as is the general isolation from the world community.
With oil prices at an all-time high, Iran can't provide gasoline for its own people, who resent the billions spent instead on Arab terrorists abroad. If oil were to dip from near $70 to $50-55 a barrel, the regime would face abject bankruptcy. For all the criticism of the U.S. position, from the left and right, we have now found the right blend of military determination not to let Teheran go nuclear, combined with economic and political efforts at containment. There is an array of future options — stronger embargoes, blockades, and military strikes on infrastructure — still on the table. The social unrest the mullahs desire in Iraq is starting to spill over the border into their own Iran, and its magnitude and final course are still unpredictable.
Syria for all its terror still can't overthrow the government in Lebanon, but has managed the impossible: Not only does the Arab world seek to isolate it, but France and the United States are cooperating to thwart it in Lebanon. The last thing we want to do is to give its terror industry the legitimacy it craves by sending any more officials over to Damascus.
Hamas is high on victory in Gaza for now, but all it has accomplished is to further concentrate its nexus of terror into one small miserable — and quite vulnerable — locale in the midst of Jordan, Israel, and Egypt, while sacrificing the Palestinians greatest advantage: deniability of culpability. It will be harder now for the tired good cop/bad cop excuses, “militant wing,” etc. and all the other justifications for terror that the Palestinians use. Since Hamas bragged that it had routed (it matters less whether true or false) the Palestinian Authority from Gaza, the next barrage of rocket attacks from there, rightly or wrongly, will liberate Israel in its response from the past worries of collateral damage. For all the talk of losing the Lebanon War, it is Iran and Syria, not Israel, that are stuck with billions in reconstruction costs for their battered Shiite pawns on the front lines.
After four years of war and acrimony, things are starting to reach a point of resolution. Both the resources of the United States and its enemies are becoming strained, but so far they are rioting in oil-exporting Iran over gasoline, not we in the U.S. Europe has gravitated more in the last four years to our views than we to theirs, especially in regard to the dangers of radical Islam. Israel lost some of its precious capital of deterrence in the last war, but ultimately the real loser was a bankrupt Iran who lost far more materially than did a far wealthier Israel. Iran unleashed terror in the region, but found its own terrorist credentials no exemption from what it wrought.
Because violence per se is the only narrative from the Middle East, and often editorialized as deriving from U.S. blunders, we are in a state of constant depression. But things are not as bad as they seem, and could still turn out far better than anyone might imagine — if we give the gifted Gen. Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker the support and time they need to make the necessary military and diplomatic changes.
Even limited successes in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East are the worst nightmare of the Democrats. Watching them writhe in the wind as things improve would be a true pleasure.
Our military forces are doing great in Iraq! But on Iran, Victor Davis Hanson is a dispenser of rhetorical amniotic fluid to soothe his readers into bliss.
"Start of fuel rationing puts Iran's president on hot seat"
Iranians smashed shop windows and set fire to a dozen gas stations in the capital Wednesday, angered by the sudden start of a fuel rationing system that threatens to increase President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's unpopularity.
Police were sent to guard some stations after the violence, and there was calm during the day as motorists lined up to fill their tanks under the new restrictions.
The government had been warning for weeks that rationing was coming, but the announcement of its start just three hours before the plan took effect at midnight Tuesday startled people and sent them rushing to get one last fill-up.
The rationing is part of a government attempt to reduce the $10 billion it spends each year to import fuel that is then sold to Iranian drivers at less than cost, to keep prices low.
Iran is one of the biggest oil producers, but it doesn't have enough refineries, so it must import more than 50 percent of the gasoline its people use. The government says money saved from subsidies can go to building refineries, improving public transit and creating jobs.
But a hike in gasoline prices last month and now the rationing are feeding discontent with Ahmadinejad, who was elected in 2005 on a platform of helping the poor and fixing Iran's ailing economy. His failure to do so has sparked widespread criticism.
"This man, Ahmadinejad, has damaged all things. The timing of the rationing is just one case," said Reza Khorrami, a 27-year-old teacher who was among those lined up late Tuesday at one Tehran gas station.
Iranians are accustomed to gasoline at rock-bottom prices. After a 25 percent increase May 21, gasoline sells at the equivalent of 38 cents a gallon.
But rationing will limit private drivers to just 26 gallons of fuel a month at the subsidized price. Taxis can get 211 gallons. Anything more will have to be bought at a higher price, which has yet to be announced.
The short notice of the plan's start appeared to be aimed at preventing a rush to hoard fuel. Still, lines of cars, some up to a half-mile long, formed after the announcement, and the mood turned violent in places.
Drivers attacked some stations after managers stopped selling fuel before midnight, saying they had to recalibrate their pumps for rationing.
Fire Department spokesman Behrouz Tashakkor said 12 stations in Tehran were set on fire. Iran's police chief, Gen. Ismail Ahmadi Moghaddam, put the total of damaged stations at 17, and said people also broke windows in cars and other buildings, including banks.
During the day Wednesday, drivers were still lining up at stations, but in smaller numbers.
Iran's government is seeking $12 billion in investments to boost refining capacity from 1.6 million barrels a day to 2.9 million barrels in the next five years.
Thank you for the news, and that’s true. Except that it is more likely that Iran is now importing less than 40 percent of its gasoline. ...small difference, yes. But with the help of other nations, Iran is building more refining capacity both within the country and outside of it. How long that will take is hard to guess accurately about. And what might limit Iran’s time to do so?
Will sanctions alone work? That’s a tough question to answer for sure. But the regime doesn’t export many different items in great quantities—only a few. ...oil, pistachios, rugs,... Quite a few other nations continue to trade with Iran (Italy and Germany, heavily so). How many will stop purchasing oil that’s from Iran?
...only a little information from a quick search.
Oil Rich Iran Faces Gas Rationing
By Gary Thomas
Voice of America
Washington
05 June 2007
http://www.voanews.com/english/2007-06-05-voa49.cfm?renderforprint=1&textonly=1&&TEXTMODE=1&CFID=87736357&CFTOKEN=82228918
[Gary Thomas wrote that Iran is importing “about 40 percent” of its oil then. I saw the same figure many months before he wrote that.]
Iran plans to expand gasoline production: oil minister
Regional-Iran, Economics, 5/20/2006
http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/060520/2006052001.html
Contract To Boost Gasoline Production At Bandar Abbas Refinery Signed.
Publication: APS Review Downstream Trends
Date: Nov 27 2006
Subject: Petroleum refineries (Production management)
[And we’ve probably all seen the recent news about Iran building new refineries in China and other Asian countries.]
...one more thing. There are various pecuniary interests in the USA that are trying to influence policy on Iran in their various preferred ways. A commodities investor (oil) or manufacturer (exports) will see the matter differently from an importer or merchant (freight fuel price considerations). Such interests lobby. Technicians and former light combat soldiers will have their points of view. They vote.
....and isn't it a disgrace that the crisis was brought about solely by their own incompetence? Despite the deadly threat they represent to the West we haven't laid a glove on them, thus far.
And this is why Iran always gooses the price up by some "stunt", every time it start to dip. We should start emptying the strategic oil reserve onto the world oil market while at the same time have the reverse oil "plunge protection team" drive the price of oil down and break these scum once and for all.
We need to apply to Iran the same all out efforts Reagan used to break the Soviet Union. Covert/overt war on all fronts.
I’m not trying to influence opinions (this time) so much as offer a little (and insufficient for much), general synopsis on the situation.
IMO:
1. With a more hawkish policy (taking Iran’s nuclear facilities out soon), oil will go up much in the near future, then back down, then up again very gradually.
2. With a less hawkish policy, oil will go very high a little later (after Iran has nukes to share with Syria, Sudan,...) and continue to go up from there.
3. Or something new in sanctions will convince the mullahs to shut their nuclear R&D completely down and hand all materials and design literature to UN inspectors trusted by us.
4. Or Iran will allow inspectors to see all of their facilities, and we will be satisfied with that (maybe see 2 again).
5. Or there’s a possible tactic or probable scenario that hasn’t occurred to me (which could be).
Agreed. But that ain’t gonna happen with Bush and Rice.
Well if we could send madam speaker babushka......one way.
Bingo. Finance the dissidents and opposition. They are many!
Before Condi Rice was a government employee, she was an advisor to President Reagan. She told him that the USSR could be bankrupted by bringing down the price of oil, Russia's sole source of hard currency. By whatever means used, it was done. USSR? Kaput!!
yitbos
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