Posted on 06/30/2007 12:37:30 PM PDT by hardback
In the beginning it was "agrarian" reform today it's "socialism with Chinese characteristics." In between there have been tens of millions of deaths wrought by Red China's masters and modern mandarins.
It's always been about the Party. Today the Dengist control the Party.
The memory of runaway inflation -- more than events on the battlefield what defeated the Chiang Kai-shek government in its civil war with the Communists -- hovers and any currency manipulation would set off panic.
There are the pesky similarities of corruption and the appearance of too much foreign influence -- there are new problems of environmental destruction, factory deaths and injury, counterfeiting that kills, mass population displacement to make room for projects like dams, and all the factors listed in the article.
How much longer can it last?
No wonder "their man in Washington" could assert that "it all depends on what the meaning of 'Is' is."
Unfortunately China signed their own death warrant by pursuing the three nuclear shield strategy (help Pakistan get nukes to counter India, help North Korea get nukes to counter US-Japan, and help Iran get nukes to sap US strength by causing mischief in Middle East). The only reason the US has not taken drastic action on China is because in the last 20 years the US has establish deep commercial relations with China and will need time to unwind. The US has establish agreements with Vietnam as the initial steps of making her the alternative low cost manufacturing center and making overtures to India to make her the low cost hi tech manufacturing alternative to China. Today India is about to make a decision on possibly choosing US fighter to replace her aging MiG-21 fighters. This decision is a very important symbol for it marks the first time India will buy US weapons since the beginning of the Cold War. Vietnam and India will become the alternates to China and possible the military counter balance on the Chinese border. Up to this day, China never had to spend a chunk of her defense budget in fielding a med tech army to guard her borders since her reapproachment with the Russians. This has free up her military resources to research advanced weapons and purchase Russian weapons. IMHO twenty years from now, China will collapse financially because the US will shift their manufacturing and services to India and Vietnam and at the same time the arms race from a US armed India and Vietnam will sap her resources. In the end I think China will become unstable, and the US will support Sanjing, Tibet, Inner Mongolia and Taiwan to declare independence. By the end of the 21st Century, China will lose half of her territory and most of her natural resources and be consigned to a Third World nation with pockets of affluent city states. I predict the US will still be a super power at the end of the 21st Century, India will advance and China will fall.
What ever happened with that?
if the muslims havent nuked us by then.
BTTT
I have heard some of the more credible talking heads say that we could have China on its knees in two years by simply removing MFN. Their entire economic growth is tied to trade with the United States.
A number of which were recently recalled, as they had lead-based paint used by their Chinese manufacturers. .
Good post. Thanks for your insight.
Your sceanario is a virtual replay of how the USSR disintegrated. I don’t think it will take 20 years, though. It might happen a lot sooner.
Very interesting. Thanks for posting.
Bump
Bump
Well, what happened is that they have a lot of foreign assets; in fact, they have the largest net foreign asset position of any nation, as they have had since 1991.
The Bank of Japan's International Investment Position at Year-End 2005 is here. (I believe that the new one will be out soon.)
That would've been nice, and I trust I may take it as a compliment, but I am rather afraid you are mistaking either your correspondent or the date...
I joined FR in August 2004. :-)
Cheers!
Are you a troll or are you a Chinese agent?
that was rude.
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