Posted on 07/05/2007 8:31:03 PM PDT by Baladas
President Bush has been having an uphill climb in the polls -- or a downhill slide, depending on your point of view.
And according to CBS News director of surveys, Kathleen Frankovic, that picture probably won't be changing any time soon: Presidents can rebound. There can be a “rallying point.” In his 1973 book Wars, Presidents and Public Opinion, John Mueller studied presidential approval ratings. Simply stated, he found three key factors. First is length of time in office; approval usually goes down the longer a president serves, as whatever he does alienates someone. Second is the economy, which can either help or hurt. And third is long-term war, especially American casualties, which reduces approval..
Mueller also identified what he called “rally points,” which can bump up approval ratings, at least for a while. This president’s biggest rally point occurred after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. His support also rose (less dramatically) at the start of the Iraq war in 2003. It declined (as Mueller predicted) as that war went on. Most rally points involve foreign threat or action – like George H.W. Bush and the 1991 Persian Gulf War, Ronald Reagan and the invasion of Grenada in 1983, and even Jimmy Carter and the seizure of American hostages in Iran in 1979. There are also “rally points” when the presidency, though certainly not the nation, has been in crisis. The best example of that was when Bill Clinton’s lagging approval rating rose above 60 percent after reports of his entanglement with Monica Lewinsky surfaced in 1998.
Mueller also notes that sometimes opinions are too fixed to change.
Miss it by a mile IMO - ignores both the Congress and their own apporval numbers, which matter more.
you like liberal media?
That was a rally point?!!
Can he bounce back to what? I don’t see him running for any other political offices. Kind of a lame article. Sort of like all the Democrats now running for their Presidential Primary, seem to be running against a non-candidate. How many times do we have to hear, they hate GW?For that matter, how many times do they have to restate their hatred for GW? The entire world has known it, and been reminded of it day in and day out, since 2000!
Can he? Yes.
Will he? Unlikely.
Gee, I don’t know?
How about Harry Reid? Nancy Pelosi?
Why don’t the ass-biters at CBS ask about those two turds?
Is that a Good Thing or a Bad Thing?
Dead Cat Bounce?
Bad thing. It increases the dem’s leverage going into the 2008 election.
No.
Does it matter? Let him be the Left's lightning rod, enabling Thompson to deconstruct the Hildebeast at his leisure, and even run against Bush himself--there's plenty there to run against from a conservative perspective.
All true, but Dubya’s unpopularity has been strong for over a year now. with most of the movement being downward. Reagan had no protracted unpopularity in the 30s in his era.
This is new territory, and comparisons to Reagan are presumptuous.
I voted for this guy twice, but i now see the error of my ways. He’s going lower poll-wise if I’m any type of reference point. I just wish he’s stay off the teevee, send someone else to talk-—know what i mean?
Don’t forget Sandy Berger.
Yet "today" Reagan is popular?
You seem confused.
I remember it very well.
In California, even with it's liberals, when Reagan died, I have *never* seen an out pouring of people like that in my life.
Hundreds of thousands of people stopped on roads and freeways in Southern California bringing them to a complete stop when his funeral procession passed.
Hundreds ran to freeway over passes. Reports estimated over 500,000 lined the roads and freeways, standing, many crying, waving and saluting, as the President Reagan left on his final trip.
It was unbelievable by any description.
No, Reagan was *always* popular with the people.
Political Science is as much art as it is science, but might I suggest that changes in communications methods alone have been substantial since 1973 - and Mueller's analysis might be as relevant as the "opinion leader" models from the era of influential newspaper endorsements. That is to say zip, zero, nada.
Sorry, not so long ago I would have dragged my Redneck Ass over hot asphalt to support “W”, Hell, that fantasy is history!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.