China's trade surplus expected to exceed 100 bln USD in first half

China's trade surplus will top 100 billion U.S. dollars in the first half of the year, up 60 percent on the same period of last year, an analyst with the General Administration of Customs told Xinhua.

Huang Guohua, a senior statistical analyst with the administration, predicted that the June trade volume and trade surplus figures would exceed May because of a surge in exports spurred by the latest tax policy change.

Huang said the total exports and imports in the first half would be close to one trillion U.S. dollars.

Manufacturers have been rushing to export as much as possible before the deadline after the government announced on June 19 it would cut or eliminate export tax rebates for 2,831 commodities starting July 1.

The new policy, which covers more than a third of the total number of items listed on customs tax regulations, was seen as the toughest measure so far to combat overheated export growth and ease frictions between China and its trade partners.

The latest export-tightening move -- which imposed extra export tariffs and cut import duties as of June 1 -- has created an export boom and lifted May's trade surplus by 22.45 billion U.S. dollars, up 73 percent on the corresponding period of last year.

Official figures show the aggregate surplus for the first five months jumped 84 percent year-on-year to 85.7 billion U.S. dollars.

Huang said the trade surplus for this year would remain at a high level but the growth rate would slow down in the second half.

An earlier report released by the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) forecast the country's trade volume would grow by around 20 percent in 2007 to reach more than 2.1 trillion U.S. dollars.

The country will make further efforts to rein in the surging surplus by expanding imports and curbing exports of high-energy-consuming and high-polluting products, said vice commerce minister Wei Jianguo on Tuesday.

I myself find it difficult to believe that an economy that is doing $2.1 trillion of trade per year also has a GDP of $2 to $3 trillion.

Since the trade numbers are probably close to correct (they seem to match other, more reliable countries' numbers reasonably well), I suspect that the Red China's GDP is well over the figures that the PRC is putting out.

I noticed that there was another article that mentions that the PRC's GDP numbers are probably understated at Market Watch.

Certainly an economy that can accumulate $1.2 trillion in cash is doing quite well.

We will always regret making Red China wealthy.

China, Russia, and Iran have been getting very cozy in the last decade. China is pouring millions into Iran to supplement their oil dependency. They are also selling arms to Iran as is Russia. These are the new Axis powers, there can be no doubt. Russia will soon build an oil pipeline to China to keep that monster going. Chinese-Russian relations have never been better.

When history is finally written Communist China will go down as the bloodiest government in human history.

1. Red China has killed up to 60 million of its own people.
2. There are practically no human rights recognized.

3. Slave-labor factories turn out everything from computer chips to potato chips for the American market.

4. Red China is a totalitarian police state ruled by a small elite who have all the guns.

5. Speaking of gun control: Possession of a firearm in Red China by a private citizen can bring the death penalty. No appeal.

So, why don’t we begin a boycott of Chinese goods? We can, at least, try to put a finger in the damn and who knows, it might take on a life of its own. To borrow a phrase from a Chinese, the journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. No more Chinese food, products and especially toothpaste.

I suspect that the Red China's GDP is well over the figures that the PRC is putting out.

Could be -- it's hard to measure given the difference between what their currency trades for vs. what it actually purchases within the country. But I think they have a relatively weak domestic economy.

No organization is necessary. Merely choose not to support Red China by refusing to purchase anything made there or containing significant Chinese content.

If millions of Americans make a conscious decision to avoid Chinese products based upon the knowledge that China is an evil, oppressive slave state biding its time before it attacks us, then that vaunted trade surplus will vanish rather quickly...

You’d think poisoning people’s pets would be enough, wouldn’t you?

I personally don't buy anything from Red China that I can identify as such and can find a substitute for.

However, it is almost impossible to identify Chinese content in a product made elsewhere: who would ever have guessed that the U.S. and Canada, great wheat producing countries, would have ever needed to import wheat gluten from Red China? Certainly I would not have.

While more stringent Country-Of-Origin labelling might help, I think any large-scale boycott of Chinese goods will cause some real hi-jinks to be played on exactly what "Country-Of-Origin" means: what about the situation now where we ship chickens from the U.S. to be processed in China and then returned here? What standardized labelling system could be set up that would be able to encode that in a readable format on every package containing that processed chicken?

I think that the only solution is to simply cease normal trade with Red China. Informal boycotts are not generally strong enough, and strong enough formal ones can be too easily evaded as long as we have normal trade going on with Red China. Instead, scotch the problem at its source: normal trade with the PRC should simply be ceased.

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