Iraq following the Somalia model

July 10, 2007 | Brad Hamlett

[bhamlett]

Many people think that Iraq will become a satellite state of Iran and provide a forum for an Iran/Shiite alliance to fight a Saudi/Jordan/Sunni alliance, while the Kurdish north splits off. I don’t share this view. Iraq will follow the Somalia model, becoming a catalyst for regional destabilization in the Middle East.

Why? Iraq is primarily a tribal society rather than a Muslim society split along Sunni/Shia lines. Iran is also a Persian country, not an Arab country, and the only reason that the Shias are siding with Iran now is because the US is in Iraq. Once we leave, the old Persian/Arab rift will widen, and Iraqi Shias will split from Iran.

Iraq’s tribalism mirror’s Somalia’s tribalism, with rival militias taking support from various neighboring countries to attack other militias and other neighboring countries. The outcome in the Middle East will be higher oil prices, increased anti-Western sentiment, and attacks against our allied governments in the Middle East.

The best way the US can win this is by continuing to fight Al Queda and supporting our allied governments militarily and financially, like the House of Saud, Abdullah II, and Perez Musharraf. When I say “allied,” I mean governments who also favor regional stability in the Middle East.

[Huck]

When I say “allied,” I mean governments who also favor regional stability in the Middle East

Isn't it the contention of the Bush Admin that "stability" in the region is no longer acceptable, i.e., the status quo? And hasn't the continued growth of international jihad been sponsored and fomented by some of those same "stability" seekers? I thought that we were intentionally upsetting the apple cart in order to reshape the Middle East.

[BGHater]

Somalia has already split up.

To the north is Somaliland(Sunni).

They are somewhat a gov’t that can be worked with in the future and is the bright spot on the Horn. Also they allow women to run for and hold offices in the Gov’t.

[MissAmericanPie]

Want stability in Iraq? Then the tribal mindset must be destroyed and replaced by people seeing themselves as individuals with their own hopes, dreams, agendas, and ambitions, we need to reinforce belief in their own individually. This takes time.

This is done by total occupation for at least a decade or two. The children are the key via education, western music, and access to western dress and media. We need to stay until at least two generations have past. We need to take over their total education and ban the other.

This was a total success in Japan. If we leave Iraq because of pressure from the left then we have given our enemies the best news we can give them. That if the body count grows we will leave. That is death to our nation.

Being that the insurgents believe that this is a “holy war”. Our leaving will be a great victory for the insurgents and embolden homeland attacks. By staying and winning hearts and minds, and eventually we will within the next two generations. The contrast between our believe system now is too great to leave.

With the support of Congress and the people of the USofA, we should make it very clear we are there for the long haul. This is no time for the left to play "destructive politics" that endangers all of us. They need to get on board or face the wrath of the public when their cowardliness brings more attacks on the United States.