Because Rudy will pickup most of the middle votes...independents, center pubs and Kennedy democrats. That’s represents 40-50% of the electorate. Social conservatives may stay home but fiscal and WOT conservatives will hold their noses and vote for him.
If Rudy gets the nomination, he wins. I won’t vote for him in the primaries but I will in the general election if he gets the nod.
I agree with what you are saying. Rudy has the potential to win the middle votes which are most Americans. I think Romney is the same way. Both are talking about using America’s strengths to prosper in the global economy for example. I like Romney’s reform agenda more personally but Rudy isn’t bad. Something that is very important to people in the megalopolises. And somewhere the Dems fail miserably.
I think there is some element of regionalism where southern conservatives have been at the top positions, like George Bush and Trent Lott. So they want to hold on. And I like Fred Thompson I’d vote for him as Senator.. but I think he will have trouble outside of the south, against a metro democratic party. Look at the last congressional wipeout, the republican candidates were getting wiped out in so many of America’s great urban areas.
The fiscal conservatives who only care about taxes might vote for him. Many fiscal conservatives who have a broader libertarian philosophy won’t hold their nose to vote for an anti-Constitution, authoritarian candidate like Giuliani.
Oh, also, a lot of Kennedy democrats will rule out Giuliani based on race issues. The media has not even begun to resurrect all the police brutality stories from Giuliani’s tenure in NYC, but if he wins the nomination, expect to see wall-to-wall coverage. Many independents and dems will run from him on that issue alone.