|
First Choice for Republican Presidential Nomination in 2008 |
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|
With |
Without |
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani |
30 |
33 |
|
Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson |
20 |
21 |
|
Arizona Senator John McCain |
16 |
16 |
|
Former Massachusetts Senator Mitt Romney |
8 |
8 |
|
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich |
7 |
-- |
|
Texas Congressman Ron Paul |
3 |
3 |
|
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee |
2 |
2 |
|
Kansas Senator Sam Brownback |
2 |
2 |
|
Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson |
1 |
1 |
|
California Congressman Duncan Hunter |
1 |
1 |
|
Former Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo |
* |
* |
|
Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel |
* |
* |
|
Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore |
* |
* |
|
Other |
1 |
1 |
|
None/No opinion |
10 |
11 |
|
* = Less than 0.5% |
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|
"Other" includes candidates asked about, but who have not announced an official running. |
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According to the original ballot preferences that include Gingrich, support for the top-three ranked Republicans is virtually identical to where it was in early July, and has varied little since mid-June. The most significant change has been the near doubling of support for Fred Thompson from 11% in early June to 19% in mid-June.
Although Giuliani holds a 10-point lead over his nearest rival for the Republican nomination, his position looks much stronger when examining two other measures of candidate support. One of these is the candidates' "total" support, which is determined by adding the number of Republicans who name each as their first or second choice for the nomination.
On this basis, Giuliani is supported by 53% of Republicans (including independents who lean Republican), compared with only 30% for Fred Thompson, and 29% for McCain. Romney and Gingrich garner no more than 15% support, even when respondents are given two opportunities to name them as their preferred candidate.
Additionally, Giuliani beats Fred Thompson by 20 points, 54% to 34%, when Republicans are asked which of the two they would vote for should the Republican field narrow down to just these candidates. In June, he led by 53% to 41%.
The Democratic Field
The Democratic race has been generally stable in July, with Clinton maintaining her lead in the field, now by a nine-percentage point margin over Obama, at 34% to 25%.
Clinton's current level of support is slightly below the 37% she received earlier this month, and Obama's is up slightly from 21%. Neither of these changes is statistically significant.
Al Gore's July 7, 2007, Live Earth concert -- designed to bring attention to global warming -- might also have been expected to raise Gore's profile with Americans. However, the percentage of Democrats (including Democratic leaners) who favor Gore for the nomination has not changed. Currently, 16% of Democrats say they would like to see him nominated. This is identical to the early July figure -- and is similar to the 18% found in the previous reading from mid-June.
Gore has not completely ruled out a bid for the presidency, but some of his recent statements indicate he is moving rapidly in that direction. Removing Gore from the Democratic preference list -- and substituting the second choice of his voters in his place -- Gallup finds Clinton picking up six percentage points and Obama three percentage points. The result is that Clinton's lead over Obama stretches to 12 percentage points, 40% vs. 28%. Support for Edwards expands to 13 percentage points.