Posted on 07/21/2007 3:39:28 AM PDT by Anita1
I disagree. They do have a value. Back around this time in 2005, it was clear that there was a growing disconnect between the GOP and the american public. They were fading fast and losing the confidence of the electorate.
All the arguments you raise were raised then, but the GOP continued to lose ground, and the president's poll ratings continued to slide. The conventional wisdom on FR was that the polls were all wrong, punctuated by smug comments about Bush not winning a third term.
Lots of talking out of the collective FR arse. Those polls showed problems with the GOP, but they were ignored.
I don't doubt that polls showing both Hillary & Obama winning in the general election can change. That's not to say they will change, though. That's the trap that FR fell into throughout the end of 05 and through 06. Freepers fell flat on their arses, and frankly too many still haven't learned the lessons of that period.
Saying things can change is just being hopeful, especially since there are no signs of positive movement. I think ultimately election 08 will rise or fall on the issue of Iraq. If the perception is that it's a colossal screwup, the GOP suffers cascading losses across the board again.
At this point, that's more likely than not. Just calling it like it is.
The only poll that counts is the final one on Election Day.
Let me remind YOU of one thing...the POLLS said the GOP would get trounced 6 months before the election and they DID.
Let me remind you that Clinton was up by 28 points on Bush 6 months prior to the election.
It is foolish to simply dismiss the polls at this point. It would also be foolish to believe that they will be exactly as they are now one day before the election. It is WISE to use them now as indicators of trends and of overall GOP strength.
This poll does NOT say that Hillary will win...but what it does say is there is not a declard GOP canidate that is strong.
Agreed about Newt.
I am hoping that if Fred declares, he will rise in the polls. I do not take this poll to be evidence that the GOP cannot win...only that the trend is not good...this is the first time that Hildebeast has out polled the GOP field...even Obama out polled them. If other polls in the weeks to come follow this trend, then there is trouble ahead.
I am not a dooms dayer...I still do not believe Hillary can get elected, UNLESS, there is a third party that pulls votes away from the GOP...the way Perot did...
In a nutshell, I don’t predict doom by this one poll...I only warn that it is not wise to simply ignore them and offer the same tired head-in-sand declarations such as:
“Too early” “These polls don’t mean anything” “The only poll that counts is on Nov 8.” “These polls are cooked.”
Some polls are cooked, but taken as a whole, if they all begin to trend badly...there is trouble to be sure.
She needs 270 Electoral College votes to win. I don’t see it happening. She’ll prove to be another Edwards, I’m betting. She won’t even carry her home state of...Michigan? Arkansas? New York? Illinois? Where the f*ck is this woman exactly FROM, again? LOL!
She can get the smaller states along the eastern coastline, but with the exception of MY pathetic state that came close to making that traitorous POS John Kerry President and maybe Michigan and Minnesota, she has NO real chance in the Heartland or the South.
But she’s a cheater, so my theories may come to naught. And if a Third Party (paid for by ‘The Beast & Company’) springs up in the next 12 months or so, America is screwed and tattooed. :(
True.
Too damned early to get excited.
Good Night!
The average of all polls prior to the 2004 & 2006 elections was a good predictor of the outcome.
I asked you to back up your claim with sourced information. I'll ask again with the two non Clinton elections you refer to. Cite the success of the DBM polls in the 2004 and 2006 elections.
If you're not worried, OK!
Do you have a reading problem?
Fox Polls stink.
Hiliary and Hussein will win only if all the illegals vote like they’re already doing in California and Florida. How are we going to stop the illegal vote?
“JWB’s and Senate Republicans whole hearted support for Amnesty has not only angered “us” the base, it also has given fence sitters a reason to look to the Dems in 08.”
That simply doesn’t compute. If you don’t like amnesty you should be running like hell away from the Democrats.
80% of Senate Republicans voted the *right* way on the final cloture vote.
80% of Senate Democrats voted the *WRONG* way on the final cloture vote.
EVERY SINGLE DEMOCRAT RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IS *FOR* AMNESTY FOR ILLEGAL ALIENS, INCLUDING THE DREAM ACT.
EVERY SINGLE DEMOCRAT RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IS *AGAINST* ENGLISH AS A SECOND LANGUAGE.
It is nonsense to talk of ‘looking to the Dems’ if your #1 issue is opposing illegal immigration. It’s like a black person voting KKK. The Dems are thinking their big issue is Iraq. I have my doubts that it will be theirs for long simply because the stupidity and folly of surrendering unnecessarily will not escape even the common sense of the not-very-informed.
Each day the Democrats are coming up with another stupid, evil bill:
- new taxpayer funding stupid entitlement spending
- more taxes on energy, on cigarettes, on ‘the rich’ (it includes me)
- plan to retreat n defeat in Iraq, plan to close Gitmo, plan to stop being mean to terrorists and stop watching them, is that a way to win the GWOT?!?
- stopping ANWR drilling
- pro-abortion policies to undermine ‘mexico city’
- corrupt giveaways to leftie organizations
- more money for PBS
... not to mention the Fairness doctrine and the inquistions the Dems in Congress are setting up to concoct bogus scandals and undermine the executive branch of govt (until Hillary arrives).
As I said: Our real problem and risk as a free-loving people is that such idiocy isn’t laughed off the national stage. In the end, it wont matter what the Republican leaders do, if the majority and White House are all given to Democrats, we will be at the mercy of liberal Demcorats who make even the worst RINO look like paragons of good govt in comparison.
Be afraid. be very afraid.
In 1988 Dukakis had a 14 point lead on Bush-41.
In 2002, the polls had the Dems winning the House and holding the Senate.
In 2004, Kerry was beating Bush on election day in the Fox Poll 53% to 47%.
I think it is time for Conservatives to stop falling for the lies of the left and just vote.
Staying home in droves in 2006 defeated the GOP.
Voting in mass will destroy the left in 2008.
Fake polls should not hold Conservatives back.
The men and women in uniform depend on us.
Polls this early mean nothing.
Hillary has yet to unleash her smear machine.
Obama hasn’t his opponent racist yet.
We haven’t been able to Swift-boat** anyone yet.
No one I know is even paying attention to the politcians.
I’ll start paying attention to the polls sept 08...maybe.
** Swift-boat: To tell the truth about a Democrat.
I have read thread after thread here on FR, and even life long republicans are sweaering that “I will not donate a nickel untilthe border fence is built” and that is to the RNC, not even directly to say Mel Martinez’s campiagn, but to the Republican Party as a whole.
Do you think that sentiment is confined to “just” Reublican Conservatives, that no “moderates” or ahh-em “independents” don’t think that as well?
So if “joe average” doesn’t like the Iraq War, the Dhimis are “promising” to pull the US out.
If immigration is a burr under their saddle, JWB’s daily, even hourly pimping for Amnesty, and refusal to act quickly to build a border security fence, will somehow lead the fence sitters to vote Republican when even Die hard Conservatives won’t support Republicans financially, you tell me how they would think that?
and thusly the poll numbers.
I heard the same head-in-the-sand clap trap last election cycle when I pointed out that the polls were showing a trend that was not good.
If is child-like and foolish to simply dismiss the polls with the usual “too early”, “they don’t mean a thing” posture.
“In 1991 BJ Clinton had not even announced”
What the hell is that for? I did not say anything about 1991. I said that Clinton had a 28 point lead 6 months prior to the election (actually it was coming out of the dem convention), and he did. BUT, many here said the same old clap-trap...”these polls are bogus...these polls are rigged”...Clinton didn’t “win” by 28...got in with 41% due to Perot, but there was still a message in that poll.
You sight ONE poll that had Kerry winning....the majority of polls had Bush with a slight lead. Taken as a WHOLE the polls must be used for sake of trend information, AND to find our canidate that CAN beat them.
You say conservatives stayed home in 2006...whatever, the polls predicted a dem sweep and it happened. And if the conservative stayed home, it wasn’t because they followed the polls...it was because they were pissed off at Congress.
Yes, people are saying things and behaving a certain way.
Whether it is rational or sensible given the fact that the Democrats are far worse on immigration is another matter.
The sentiment of disappointment in Bush and RINOs on illegal immigration is sensible, given the obvious disconnect with the base; the view that its should cause anyone to reconsider *DEMOCRATS* is not rational at all.
At this point, amnesty whole-hog is dead and will get revived in 2009 only if there is a pro-amnesty President in the White House - EVERY DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT IS PRO-AMNESTY AND ANTI-ENGLISH-AS-OUR-NATIONAL-LANGUAGE. In the meantime, the only way amnesty will happen is piecemeal, and the Democrats like Durbin and Feinstein are planning to do just that.
So the real threat, now that Bush is a lame duck on the issue, is a continued future Democrat majority eager to pass a bill that could destroy the GOP majority in the future.
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