Top market timing newsletters remain bullish [including Bob Brinker]

marketwatch ^ | July 27, 2007 | MARK HULBERT

[freedomdefender]

Thursday's market plunge was the worst since the 416-point drop in late February.

The February drop, of course, was blamed on a drop in the Chinese stock market, which is why some commentators blamed the drop on Wall Street on what they called the "Shanghai Surprise." ...

I decided for this column to do exactly what I did after the close of the Shanghai Surprise: Review what the top-performing market timing newsletters have to say about the stock market.

Fortunately for the stock market, the top market timing newsletters are just as bullish today as they were then. And in the wake of the late February drop, they were quite bullish.

In determining which top performing newsletters I would define to be the top market timers, I turned - as I did for my late-February column - to the five services with the best risk-adjusted market timing returns over the last decade, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest. All five currently are bullish.

Note carefully that, as of my filing this column late Thursday night, three of these top five market timing newsletters (all but the two edited by Dan Sullivan) had not updated their advice to subscribers. That means my summary of their current positions is based on what they have written in previous weeks. Though I am confident that my summary of their reactions to Thursday's market action is accurate, it to this extent must remain conjecture. ...

Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early July, editor Bob Brinker reported that his stock market timing model remained solidly in bullish territory. ..

[Uncle Miltie]

Proving Market Timing is a fool’s game.

[Free Vulcan]

The S & P had went up nearly 200 points from March to July. The market had gotten way ahead of itself and was due for a correction.

[Always Right]

The market is bullish. We have had great earning reports, the economy is growing at a solid pace and there are plenty of jobs. The problem is there still could be another 500 point decline in the DOW before it heads higher, if you believe the charts. But there is little doubt the market will be over 15,000 by years end.

[Deo volente]

We haven’t had a 10% correction in who knows how long, so yes, another 500 point drop is not out of the question.

I’m not touching any of my holdings. In fact, I’m considering not even looking at my portfolio for the next week or two. I am confident that this is only a temporary adjustment.

[Ken H]

I invest a fixed amount each month into a stock fund and a bond fund in equal amounts. Been doing it for years. I use the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund and the GNMA fund. It's simple, effective, and I never worry about how the markets are doing.

[ExtremeUnction]

The problem is there still could be another 500 point decline in the DOW before it heads higher.

It will drop another 1,000 points. Otherwise, you are correct.

[ExtremeUnction]

The problem is there still could be another 500 point decline in the DOW before it heads higher.

It will drop another 1,000 points. Otherwise, you are correct.

[hinckley buzzard]

I am confident that this is only a temporary adjustment.

Good luck.

[hinckley buzzard]

It will drop another 1,000 points. Otherwise, you are correct.

You obviously have never lived through a true bear market. The Dow could easily be at 9000 by December.