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Is the War Lost? Three Inconvenient Truths About Iraq Right Now
TCS Daily ^ | 7/28/07 | Peter J. Wallison

Posted on 07/28/2007 2:23:20 PM PDT by bnelson44

Finally, if—as seems apparent now—the surge is succeeding, opponents of the war are going to be hard-pressed to make the case for abandoning Iraq, even if there is no Shi'ite-Sunni political settlement in sight. The inconvenient truth here is that, apart from the irreconcilable Left, the American people's support for withdrawal has been based on an assessment that we were losing the war. If that no longer seems true, support for withdrawal will melt away. The Democratic leaders know this; that's why they made a concerted effort last week to get a vote on withdrawal in July. September, which will likely see a favorable report by General Petraeus, will be too late. Claims that the inability of the Iraqis to reach a political settlement is a reason for us to leave will ring a bit hollow in the face of a possible military success. After all, the American people have noticed that our Congress, unthreatened by anything more serious than an upcoming election, couldn't pass an immigration bill, can't eliminate earmarks or adopt ethics rules, and can't agree on energy legislation when gasoline is $3.50 a gallon. Politicians, they know, will be politicians, but that doesn't mean we should hand our enemies a victory instead of a defeat.

Nevertheless, because weakening the will of the American people is the only way that al-Qaeda and our other opponents in Iraq can hope to win, between now and September we will see an all-out effort to inflict heavy casualties on our troops and on Iraqi civilians. Unfortunately, this can be a winning strategy. If we are unprepared for it, a bad August and early September could still lead to a collapse in public support that would even sweep congressional Republicans with it. We should not forget that the North Vietnamese Tet offensive of 1968—although it resulted ultimately in a military defeat for the North—became a turning point in the war because it destroyed the American public's belief in our ultimate military success. A series of spectacular and dramatic attacks could do the same for our enemies in Iraq. They know that, and we should expect them to try.

But if these attacks do not occur—or if they do and are quickly quelled—the success of the surge will be an


TOPICS: Extended News
KEYWORDS: alqaedainiraq; iraq
Read it all
1 posted on 07/28/2007 2:23:21 PM PDT by bnelson44
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To: bnelson44
Success courtesy of www.Hotair.com

2 posted on 07/28/2007 2:27:14 PM PDT by Wolverine (A Concerned Citizen)
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To: bnelson44

3 posted on 07/28/2007 2:43:33 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country. What else needs to be said?)
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To: jveritas; FARS; Ernest_at_the_Beach; knighthawk; Marine_Uncle; SandRat; Steel Wolf; CAP; ...

Winning ping.


4 posted on 07/28/2007 3:03:46 PM PDT by elhombrelibre (Who will Liberals shift the blame to if their retreat from Iraq turns into a disaster?)
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To: bnelson44
I do not think al Qaeda or JAM have the capacity for a TET like offensive. That’s absurd. We all should try to avoid using so much of the Vietnam template in the analysis of this war. It simply isn’t comparable other than the DNC and MSM’s desire to repeat their history in that war and end up with a ignominious retreat and genocide as occurred in Cambodia.
5 posted on 07/28/2007 3:07:36 PM PDT by elhombrelibre (Who will Liberals shift the blame to if their retreat from Iraq turns into a disaster?)
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To: elhombrelibre

Agreed. Suicide bombs are a device for the terminally weak. If we stop that there’s no way they can beat us on the battlefield. I would look for something closer to home if they want to make a statement. If they could carry off a major terrorist operation in the US they would hand the Dems an issue on a silver platter.


6 posted on 07/28/2007 3:13:13 PM PDT by saganite (Billions and billions and billions----and that's just the NASA budget!)
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To: saganite
However, why would an attack on our soil lead reasonable people to conclude that we should give into al Qaeda in Iraq. It might lead to a full scale attack on al Qaeda in Pakistan, but I think it would be terribly irresponsible to relent and allow them a victory anywhere.
7 posted on 07/28/2007 3:17:34 PM PDT by elhombrelibre (Who will Liberals shift the blame to if their retreat from Iraq turns into a disaster?)
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To: elhombrelibre

Great article.


8 posted on 07/28/2007 3:21:06 PM PDT by jveritas (God bless our brave troops and President Bush.)
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To: elhombrelibre

Spin. The Democrats would be able to take that and paint Bush as ignoring security at home because we’re preoccupied in Iraq. The sheeple will buy it too.


9 posted on 07/28/2007 3:22:05 PM PDT by saganite (Billions and billions and billions----and that's just the NASA budget!)
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To: bnelson44

Good article.. thanks for posting...


10 posted on 07/28/2007 3:25:03 PM PDT by tje
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To: saganite
Agreed. Suicide bombs are a device for the terminally weak. If we stop that there’s no way they can beat us on the battlefield. I would look for something closer to home if they want to make a statement. If they could carry off a major terrorist operation in the US they would hand the Dems an issue on a silver platter.

I must clarify or take issue with your statement. Bringing down a building, killing 3000 of your enemies at the cost of your own life, is not necessarily an indication your people are "terminally weak."

11 posted on 07/28/2007 3:37:25 PM PDT by Gondring (I'll give up my right to die when hell freezes over my dead body!)
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To: Gondring

I was speaking of the suicide bombers in Iraq and since this thread is specificallty about Iraq I’m sure you must have understood my meaning. Read in context. You can understand better that way.


12 posted on 07/28/2007 3:41:10 PM PDT by saganite (Billions and billions and billions----and that's just the NASA budget!)
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To: All; elhombrelibre; bnelson44

.

During the Vietnam War:

WALTER CRONKITE’s calling our 1968 TET Offensive victory a defeat on the ‘CBS Nightly News’..

WILLIAM CLINTON, HILLARY RODHAM, JOHN KERRY, JANE FONDA, TOM HAYDEN, RAMSEY CLARK, TED KENNEDY’s active supporting of Communist North Vietnam’s push to take over a then Free South Vietnam...

TED KENNEDY’s pushing a post-WATERGATE Democrat Congress into cutting off all our funding for the then Free South Vietnamese to fight for their own Freedom with...

...just as the Communist Soviet Union gave the Communist North Vietnamese $6 Billion in 600 tanks & 1,000’s of moibile artillery pieces...

...all produced:

.

Pictures of a vietnamese Re-Education (SLAVE LABOR) Camp

http://www.Freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1308949/posts

http://www.JourneyFromTheFall.com

.

What Price for the still Free (that’s US) to pay now, I wonder, with our own Freedom directly at stake right here at home.

News of 12 million suddenly missing Iraqi purple voting fingers appearing on our TV Screens, just for starters..?

BET on it..!!!

.


13 posted on 07/28/2007 3:47:58 PM PDT by ALOHA RONNIE ("ALOHA RONNIE" Guyer/Veteran-"WE WERE SOLDIERS" Battle of IA DRANG-1965 http://www.lzxray.com)
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To: bnelson44
Nevertheless, because weakening the will of the American people is the only way that al-Qaeda and our other opponents in Iraq can hope to win, between now and September

What does "Win" mean?
Victory needs to be defined or we will never achieve it.
The mission has changed so many times the everyone is confused.

14 posted on 07/28/2007 3:51:35 PM PDT by JoinJuniorAchievement ( Fellow Veterans, we took an Oath. It is now our duty to vote for Ron Paul.")
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To: Gondring

.

NEVER FORGET

.

The Man who predicted 9/11 =

9/11 Lifesaver RICK RESCORLA, ..R.I.P.

(The Website)
http://www.RickRescorla.com

(The Pictures)
http://www.RickRescorla.com/The%20Statue.htm

(The Rest of the Story)
http://www.ArmchairGeneral.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24361

.

NEVER FORGET

.


15 posted on 07/28/2007 3:54:48 PM PDT by ALOHA RONNIE ("ALOHA RONNIE" Guyer/Veteran-"WE WERE SOLDIERS" Battle of IA DRANG-1965 http://www.lzxray.com)
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To: JoinJuniorAchievement

.

Victory in the Middle East =

Democratization

.


16 posted on 07/28/2007 3:55:59 PM PDT by ALOHA RONNIE ("ALOHA RONNIE" Guyer/Veteran-"WE WERE SOLDIERS" Battle of IA DRANG-1965 http://www.lzxray.com)
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To: bnelson44

BTTT


17 posted on 07/28/2007 3:57:45 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (Who would the terrorists vote for?)
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To: ALOHA RONNIE

We had 3 elections so far. Do they count?


18 posted on 07/28/2007 4:02:36 PM PDT by JoinJuniorAchievement ( Fellow Veterans, we took an Oath. It is now our duty to vote for Ron Paul.")
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To: bnelson44

Yes, we’ll win this fight...and the rats will NOT stop us this time. This time HISTORY WILL NOT REPEAT ITSELF...


19 posted on 07/28/2007 4:05:54 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: JoinJuniorAchievement
I expect "win" probably means U.S. out of Iraq. The Iraq govt. won't be strong enough to prevent AQ from setting up some bases in the western desert.

Of course we won't be out prior to 2011, if then, so this is probably a pointless discussion.

20 posted on 07/28/2007 4:06:48 PM PDT by squidly
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To: All; saganite

.

The same HILLARY RODHAM,

..who actively supported Freedom’s enemy Communist North Vietnam against us during the Vietnam War,

...quickly and quietly got herself appointed to the Senate Intelligence and Armed Services Committees after she was elected to the U.S. Senate.

So the 2008 Presidential Campaign will be HILLARY’s great opportunity to sell Americans her “I can protect you best” theme...

...after the sudden loss of some U.S. Cities to massive terrorist attacks..?

BET on it..!!!

.


21 posted on 07/28/2007 4:09:40 PM PDT by ALOHA RONNIE ("ALOHA RONNIE" Guyer/Veteran-"WE WERE SOLDIERS" Battle of IA DRANG-1965 http://www.lzxray.com)
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To: JoinJuniorAchievement

.

All Free Elecitons count BIG TIME in Iraq. And our terrorist enemis know it better than most.

That’s why BUSH/CHENEY committed us to implementing our Democratizing the entire Middle East, right after the 9/11 Attacks, as America’s own best self-protection against future attacks here at home.

.


22 posted on 07/28/2007 4:14:16 PM PDT by ALOHA RONNIE ("ALOHA RONNIE" Guyer/Veteran-"WE WERE SOLDIERS" Battle of IA DRANG-1965 http://www.lzxray.com)
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To: bnelson44

Murtha Says it’s Time to Bring Our “Murdering Scum” Home

Rep. John Murtha (D-Penn.), a leading Iraq War critic said he’s pushing legislation that would order U.S. troop withdrawals to begin in the Fall and predicted Republicans will support it. “As I’ve been saying for some time, the troops deployed in Iraq have shown themselves to be ‘murdering scum,’” Murtha asserted. “Keeping them there only serves to perpetuate the slaughter and atrocities.”

Under Murtha’s plan, troop withdrawals would start in November 2007 and take about a year to complete. A vote on Rep. John Murtha’s proposal likely will come in September, after Iraq commander Gen. David Petraeus is expected to deliver a promised assessment on the war.

The House passed a similar proposal a few months ago, but President Bush vetoed it. But Murtha said he predicts this vote will be different because of polls indicating mounting voter frustration with the war. “It doesn’t really matter what Patraeus has to say,” Murtha added. “We all know this war is lost. The polls confirm it. It’s time to cut our losses.”

Bush has insisted that US troops need to remain engaged in Iraq to fight al-Qaeda and has repeatedly appealed to lawmakers for more patience. However, Murtha says his bill will be the president’s final chance to escape judgment. “If the president won’t agree to the withdrawal we will have to move House Resolution 333,” Murtha said. HR 333 is the impeachment resolution sponsored by presidential candidate Representative Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio).

read more...

http://www.azconservative.org/Semmens1.htm


23 posted on 07/28/2007 4:35:06 PM PDT by John Semmens
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To: squidly
Of course we won't be out prior to 2011, if then, so this is probably a pointless discussion.

I think whoever wins in 08 will be forced to withdrawal.
Of course I think Hillary is going to win, unless Ron Paul gets the nomination, and he will effect a fundamental change in our foreign policy. New strategy and new tactics.
Our best hope to win, is for W to get Congress to Declare war on Iran prior to the 08 elections, then possibly another republican besides Paul could win.
I define "Win" as the fulfillment of W's Oct 22, 2001 speech when he said if you harbor the terrorist, we will treat you as a terrorist. Iran and Syria should have been knocked out long ago. 2004-05 range.
With them out of the way, the saudi's and the Paki's enthusiasm for proxy troops will go way down.
It won't take much to get India to help clear out Pakistan, and the Saudi's are militarily helpless if we decide to put pressure on them.
Game over.
But, since W is denying that we are fighting a world war; that WMD's were found; the Iraq/9-11 connections; and that the enemy is Islamic, that is not likely to happen.

24 posted on 07/28/2007 4:41:03 PM PDT by JoinJuniorAchievement ( Fellow Veterans, we took an Oath. It is now our duty to vote for Ron Paul.")
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To: JoinJuniorAchievement

Sure, the ‘08 winner might decide to withdraw, but Dubya will keep us there ‘til the end of his term, and the Army thinks it’ll take a good 20 months or so to pull out, so that’s where I get 2011 from.


25 posted on 07/28/2007 5:53:58 PM PDT by squidly
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To: squidly
but Dubya will keep us there ‘til the end of his term, and the Army thinks it’ll take a good 20 months or so to pull out, so that’s where I get 2011 from.

good prediction then.
Hats off to you!

26 posted on 07/28/2007 6:08:42 PM PDT by JoinJuniorAchievement ( Fellow Veterans, we took an Oath. It is now our duty to vote for Ron Paul.")
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To: bnelson44
Only when they have confidence that we will not abandon them to the terrorists will Iraqis come forward—as they now appear to be doing—with information about who among them are the terrorists, militia members and other killers, and where they can be found.

Accordingly, efforts to force the withdrawal of our troops at a time certain undermine this policy and the work and bravery of our soldiers.

We HAVE to have the timetable. Otherwise... (otherwise, what?) Well, otherwise... informants might have the confidence to come forward with the whereabouts of terrorists, and the surge may therefore be perceieved as a success, no matter how the MSM spins it! THAT would be just devastating.

27 posted on 07/29/2007 7:42:12 AM PDT by Lexinom (http://www.gohunter08.com)
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To: JoinJuniorAchievement
We had 3 elections so far. Do they count?

Not if we surrender and leave all those who allied themselves with us to be slaughtered.

We won the war against Iraq.

Now, as the nation who defeated them, we are doing the honorable thing any victorious nation should do once his enemy has been vanquished.

We are protecting them until they are able to protect themselves against foreign and domestic terrorists and other criminal elements, such as those in our congress and media.

Wrap yourself around this concept, and suddenly everything will make sense to you.

28 posted on 07/29/2007 12:45:43 PM PDT by 4woodenboats (DefendOurMarines.com)
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To: 4woodenboats
Not if we surrender and leave all those who allied themselves with us to be slaughtered. We won the war against Iraq.

This is not Vietnam.
We won, and they are strong enough to handle the internal problems.
The danger now is being an enabler, take off the training wheels.
Welfare is seductive. The "Vacation" by Parliament is a slap in our face.

The Iranians are begging to be liberated.

July 21, 2007: A recent opinion survey showed that 58 percent of Iranians would support a foreign invasion to overthrow the current religious dictatorship. However, nearly 70 percent would prefer a popular, but non-violent, revolution, like the one that tossed out European communist dictatorships in 1989-90.
Worse, 92 percent do not approve of how their government operates. Only eleven percent oppose democracy, and 72 percent did not support the "Islamic Revolution" that has dominated the country for 28 years.
Still, most Iranians are not willing to fight, knowing that the minority of Iranians who do support the government are armed and willing to kill Iranians that oppose them. The survey also showed that 78 percent of Iranians believe the country should have nuclear power, but only 46 percent believed they should have nuclear weapons.
Interestingly, 52 percent believed that Western Europe would accept Iran having nuclear power. People are not happy with the government foreign policy, with 60 percent opposing support of Hizbollah, 56 percent oppose support for Hamas, and 70 percent oppose the destruction of Israel.
However, a third of the population agreed with president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's contention that the World War II German death camp program, that killed six million Jews, never happened.

Why did we not liberate Iran in 2004? 2005?
We have the troops available.
Why is W denying WMD's were found?
Or that Saddam supported the 9-11 attack?
Get your head around that
We can easily guarantee Iraqi safety from Invasion
Taking the training wheels off and stopping the welfare is *not* surrender.
It will take 20 months to withdrawal from the day the order is given. That means 2011 at the earliest.

29 posted on 07/29/2007 6:03:33 PM PDT by JoinJuniorAchievement ( Fellow Veterans, we took an Oath. It is now our duty to vote for Ron Paul.")
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To: JoinJuniorAchievement
You really need to do more studying, junior. Your post, like your hero, is mostly uneducated blustering, with no solution, no point, no grasp of our missions or objectives.

Were it not for the polls, it wouldn't even be amusing.

30 posted on 07/29/2007 8:26:04 PM PDT by 4woodenboats (DefendOurMarines.com)
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To: 4woodenboats

avoiding the hard questions does not solve the problem.


31 posted on 07/30/2007 4:23:17 AM PDT by JoinJuniorAchievement ( Fellow Veterans, we took an Oath. It is now our duty to vote for Ron Paul.")
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