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Is the War Lost? Three Inconvenient Truths About Iraq Right Now
TCS Daily ^ | 7/28/07 | Peter J. Wallison

Posted on 07/28/2007 2:23:20 PM PDT by bnelson44

Finally, if—as seems apparent now—the surge is succeeding, opponents of the war are going to be hard-pressed to make the case for abandoning Iraq, even if there is no Shi'ite-Sunni political settlement in sight. The inconvenient truth here is that, apart from the irreconcilable Left, the American people's support for withdrawal has been based on an assessment that we were losing the war. If that no longer seems true, support for withdrawal will melt away. The Democratic leaders know this; that's why they made a concerted effort last week to get a vote on withdrawal in July. September, which will likely see a favorable report by General Petraeus, will be too late. Claims that the inability of the Iraqis to reach a political settlement is a reason for us to leave will ring a bit hollow in the face of a possible military success. After all, the American people have noticed that our Congress, unthreatened by anything more serious than an upcoming election, couldn't pass an immigration bill, can't eliminate earmarks or adopt ethics rules, and can't agree on energy legislation when gasoline is $3.50 a gallon. Politicians, they know, will be politicians, but that doesn't mean we should hand our enemies a victory instead of a defeat.

Nevertheless, because weakening the will of the American people is the only way that al-Qaeda and our other opponents in Iraq can hope to win, between now and September we will see an all-out effort to inflict heavy casualties on our troops and on Iraqi civilians. Unfortunately, this can be a winning strategy. If we are unprepared for it, a bad August and early September could still lead to a collapse in public support that would even sweep congressional Republicans with it. We should not forget that the North Vietnamese Tet offensive of 1968—although it resulted ultimately in a military defeat for the North—became a turning point in the war because it destroyed the American public's belief in our ultimate military success. A series of spectacular and dramatic attacks could do the same for our enemies in Iraq. They know that, and we should expect them to try.

But if these attacks do not occur—or if they do and are quickly quelled—the success of the surge will be an


TOPICS: Extended News
KEYWORDS: alqaedainiraq; iraq
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1 posted on 07/28/2007 2:23:21 PM PDT by bnelson44
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To: bnelson44
Success courtesy of www.Hotair.com

2 posted on 07/28/2007 2:27:14 PM PDT by Wolverine (A Concerned Citizen)
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To: bnelson44

3 posted on 07/28/2007 2:43:33 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country. What else needs to be said?)
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To: jveritas; FARS; Ernest_at_the_Beach; knighthawk; Marine_Uncle; SandRat; Steel Wolf; CAP; ...

Winning ping.


4 posted on 07/28/2007 3:03:46 PM PDT by elhombrelibre (Who will Liberals shift the blame to if their retreat from Iraq turns into a disaster?)
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To: bnelson44
I do not think al Qaeda or JAM have the capacity for a TET like offensive. That’s absurd. We all should try to avoid using so much of the Vietnam template in the analysis of this war. It simply isn’t comparable other than the DNC and MSM’s desire to repeat their history in that war and end up with a ignominious retreat and genocide as occurred in Cambodia.
5 posted on 07/28/2007 3:07:36 PM PDT by elhombrelibre (Who will Liberals shift the blame to if their retreat from Iraq turns into a disaster?)
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To: elhombrelibre

Agreed. Suicide bombs are a device for the terminally weak. If we stop that there’s no way they can beat us on the battlefield. I would look for something closer to home if they want to make a statement. If they could carry off a major terrorist operation in the US they would hand the Dems an issue on a silver platter.


6 posted on 07/28/2007 3:13:13 PM PDT by saganite (Billions and billions and billions----and that's just the NASA budget!)
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To: saganite
However, why would an attack on our soil lead reasonable people to conclude that we should give into al Qaeda in Iraq. It might lead to a full scale attack on al Qaeda in Pakistan, but I think it would be terribly irresponsible to relent and allow them a victory anywhere.
7 posted on 07/28/2007 3:17:34 PM PDT by elhombrelibre (Who will Liberals shift the blame to if their retreat from Iraq turns into a disaster?)
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To: elhombrelibre

Great article.


8 posted on 07/28/2007 3:21:06 PM PDT by jveritas (God bless our brave troops and President Bush.)
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To: elhombrelibre

Spin. The Democrats would be able to take that and paint Bush as ignoring security at home because we’re preoccupied in Iraq. The sheeple will buy it too.


9 posted on 07/28/2007 3:22:05 PM PDT by saganite (Billions and billions and billions----and that's just the NASA budget!)
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To: bnelson44

Good article.. thanks for posting...


10 posted on 07/28/2007 3:25:03 PM PDT by tje
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To: saganite
Agreed. Suicide bombs are a device for the terminally weak. If we stop that there’s no way they can beat us on the battlefield. I would look for something closer to home if they want to make a statement. If they could carry off a major terrorist operation in the US they would hand the Dems an issue on a silver platter.

I must clarify or take issue with your statement. Bringing down a building, killing 3000 of your enemies at the cost of your own life, is not necessarily an indication your people are "terminally weak."

11 posted on 07/28/2007 3:37:25 PM PDT by Gondring (I'll give up my right to die when hell freezes over my dead body!)
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To: Gondring

I was speaking of the suicide bombers in Iraq and since this thread is specificallty about Iraq I’m sure you must have understood my meaning. Read in context. You can understand better that way.


12 posted on 07/28/2007 3:41:10 PM PDT by saganite (Billions and billions and billions----and that's just the NASA budget!)
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To: All; elhombrelibre; bnelson44

.

During the Vietnam War:

WALTER CRONKITE’s calling our 1968 TET Offensive victory a defeat on the ‘CBS Nightly News’..

WILLIAM CLINTON, HILLARY RODHAM, JOHN KERRY, JANE FONDA, TOM HAYDEN, RAMSEY CLARK, TED KENNEDY’s active supporting of Communist North Vietnam’s push to take over a then Free South Vietnam...

TED KENNEDY’s pushing a post-WATERGATE Democrat Congress into cutting off all our funding for the then Free South Vietnamese to fight for their own Freedom with...

...just as the Communist Soviet Union gave the Communist North Vietnamese $6 Billion in 600 tanks & 1,000’s of moibile artillery pieces...

...all produced:

.

Pictures of a vietnamese Re-Education (SLAVE LABOR) Camp

http://www.Freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1308949/posts

http://www.JourneyFromTheFall.com

.

What Price for the still Free (that’s US) to pay now, I wonder, with our own Freedom directly at stake right here at home.

News of 12 million suddenly missing Iraqi purple voting fingers appearing on our TV Screens, just for starters..?

BET on it..!!!

.


13 posted on 07/28/2007 3:47:58 PM PDT by ALOHA RONNIE ("ALOHA RONNIE" Guyer/Veteran-"WE WERE SOLDIERS" Battle of IA DRANG-1965 http://www.lzxray.com)
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To: bnelson44
Nevertheless, because weakening the will of the American people is the only way that al-Qaeda and our other opponents in Iraq can hope to win, between now and September

What does "Win" mean?
Victory needs to be defined or we will never achieve it.
The mission has changed so many times the everyone is confused.

14 posted on 07/28/2007 3:51:35 PM PDT by JoinJuniorAchievement ( Fellow Veterans, we took an Oath. It is now our duty to vote for Ron Paul.")
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To: Gondring

.

NEVER FORGET

.

The Man who predicted 9/11 =

9/11 Lifesaver RICK RESCORLA, ..R.I.P.

(The Website)
http://www.RickRescorla.com

(The Pictures)
http://www.RickRescorla.com/The%20Statue.htm

(The Rest of the Story)
http://www.ArmchairGeneral.com/forums/showthread.php?t=24361

.

NEVER FORGET

.


15 posted on 07/28/2007 3:54:48 PM PDT by ALOHA RONNIE ("ALOHA RONNIE" Guyer/Veteran-"WE WERE SOLDIERS" Battle of IA DRANG-1965 http://www.lzxray.com)
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To: JoinJuniorAchievement

.

Victory in the Middle East =

Democratization

.


16 posted on 07/28/2007 3:55:59 PM PDT by ALOHA RONNIE ("ALOHA RONNIE" Guyer/Veteran-"WE WERE SOLDIERS" Battle of IA DRANG-1965 http://www.lzxray.com)
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To: bnelson44

BTTT


17 posted on 07/28/2007 3:57:45 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (Who would the terrorists vote for?)
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To: ALOHA RONNIE

We had 3 elections so far. Do they count?


18 posted on 07/28/2007 4:02:36 PM PDT by JoinJuniorAchievement ( Fellow Veterans, we took an Oath. It is now our duty to vote for Ron Paul.")
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To: bnelson44

Yes, we’ll win this fight...and the rats will NOT stop us this time. This time HISTORY WILL NOT REPEAT ITSELF...


19 posted on 07/28/2007 4:05:54 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: JoinJuniorAchievement
I expect "win" probably means U.S. out of Iraq. The Iraq govt. won't be strong enough to prevent AQ from setting up some bases in the western desert.

Of course we won't be out prior to 2011, if then, so this is probably a pointless discussion.

20 posted on 07/28/2007 4:06:48 PM PDT by squidly
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