Posted on 07/31/2007 5:07:58 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The last thing in the world this country needs,,,,
is TWO political parties to the 'left-of-center', both headed by LIBERAL, gun-grabbing, pro-amnesty, big government, pro-abortion, gay rights crusading New York lawyers.
The Republican Party has been drifting to the left for years now,,,,and Rudy is just the man to accelerate that movement LEFTWARDS--to achieve that LIBERAL dreamworld,,,
of BOTH POLITICAL PARTIES TO LEFT-OF-CENTER!!!!
Despite what people here on FR tout, Rudy holds leads in almost every state, and in most places two-to-one over Fred. Fred has made some excellent progress, but he's kind of stalled at around 20% until people decide he's serious, and by serious I mean ANNOUNCE.
Fred, on the other hand, had a terrible two weeks. His fundraising is about 1/5 that of Rudy for the same period; the stories about his wife aren't helping; and the Spence Abraham stuff drove off as many supporters as it may gain him.
I still think it will come down to a Fred/Rudy race, but just as I won't be surprised to see a sudden Fred surge, neither would I be surprised to see Rudy coast in at about 35-38% after the McLames and the other dwarves drop out.
Team Fred Offers a Defense of Their Fundraising Jim Geraghty
Team Fred offers a defense of their fundraising:
I’m sure you’ve seen the Politico story on Thompson raising more than $3 million in his first month - a sizable amount for someone who hasn't been running since 1999. Unfortunately, people are comparing this to active candidates, when the appropriate comparison is to equivalent exploratory periods. Here’s a little information you might find useful:
(1) In his first exploratory month, Thompson raised well over $3 million - more than 10x what Giuliani did in his first month and about 3x McCain. Here’s the initial exploratory month (from the time they started taking money) for GOP candidates...Giuliani - total raised in first month (Nov. 15-Dec. 15): $258,660
McCain - total raised in first month (Nov. 14-Dec. 14): $1,130,351
Romney - raised more money in his first month, but largely because he organized his big-dollar donors ahead of time to give himself a bit splash and he “loaned his committee at least $850,000 weeks before filing his statement of candidacy on Jan. 3”
(2) Under FEC rules, you are not allowed to raise funds “in excess of what could reasonably be expected to be used for exploratory activities”. Thompson has raised an appropriate amount for an exploratory phase. Note, however…
One month ago, the DNC attacked Thompson (in the Politico) for potentially raising more money than he’d need for the exploratory period and said they’d “argue aggressively” against him. The DNC rolled out that hit piece at Daily Kos claiming that Thompson was “Raising Funds Beyond What You Need To "Explore"” and the liberal activist outlet CREW said Thompson “appears to have raised far more money than necessary…”
After being attacked for raising “too much” money, Thompson is now being attacked for not spending his entire Exploratory focus on raising money.
(3) So far we’ve utilized no direct mail or telephone fundraising, and we have a burn rate below 20% - far below the other candidates.
It's a pugnacious defense, and almost convincing... until you figure that they probably would prefer to be in the situation where they have to defend raising $5 million or more.
Having said that, I wonder how many potential donors are holding off, because they want to donate to an actual, hat-in-the-ring candidate, not a dipping-my-toe-in-the-water potential candidate
shades of 'Anyone But Bush'
Despite what people here on FR tout, Rudy holds leads in almost every state, and in most places two-to-one over Fred
See Rudy Run
Why Giuliani, despite everything, remains the Republican frontrunner.
by Matthew Continetti
08/06/2007, Volume 012, Issue 44
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/013/930fwqji.asp
(snip)
“You know what this is like?” he says. “This is just like . . . a . . . an emergency response center!”
The glee with which Giuliani says this, the joy he clearly takes at being in a room that reminds him of places where he can be in charge, barking orders and leading others, helps explain his appeal as a presidential candidate. It’s an appeal that many in the press and in elite Republican circles seem not to have recognized. The conventional wisdom holds that as grassroots conservatives wake up to Giuliani’s differences with them on issues like abortion, they will ditch him in favor of someone else. That may be happening to some extent, but it hasn’t knocked Giuliani out of first place or undermined the rationale for his candidacy. Despite his variance on some issues with some conservatives, a decline in national public opinion
polls since early March, and a recent spate of harsh media coverage, Giuliani remains the frontrunner for the 2008 Republican nomination. He continues to lead in national polls and in many state polls. He’s winning the money race. And he’s preparing for the inevitable counterattack.
Nothing is guaranteed in politics, of course. And there’s no question Giuliani’s decline has been real. Charles Franklin, a political scientist and polling expert at the University of Wisconsin, estimates that the mayor’s support has fallen around 8 percentage points nationally since March. The trend in support for Giuliani in Iowa and New Hampshire is also downward. So far, Sen. John McCain’s estimated 10 percentage point decline nationally, and the hemorrhaging of cash and staff from his campaign, has overshadowed Giuliani’s downward trend. But the trend is there.
A combination of factors may have contributed to Giuliani’s decline. His aides say the drop in poll numbers is a fall from an “unnatural high,” the inevitable result of a competitive, four-way primary between Giuliani, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, and McCain. The aides go on to say Giuliani has not yet fully engaged in the campaign, whether through personal retail politics, television and radio advertising, or direct mail. Giuliani has visited Iowa only six times since entering the race.
(snip)
Fred can’t seem to raise any dough. The real choice? Well, I will support him if he can beat Rudy or Mitt or both but I want to see him in the race and on the trail coming up with agendas and descriptions of what he believes as a Pub. When we see that, perhaps we can judge his chances at winning the general election. Which after all, is the only and most important thing for Pubs to decide.
I'll be watching....and then laughing! : )
Oh sweet Jesus, when Rooty answers the $64,000 questions: "when did Rooty's wife, Jooty Giuliani, register and vote as a Republican? Did Jooty vote for GWB? Did Jooty vote for Rooty?"............the laughter will be heard round the world.
I don’t think that explanation flies very far, because it’s not FEBRUARY, but JULY. Everyone else got in basically at the same time and was competing with each other. Fred is coming in kind of as an encore, to a lot of special attention. I’m with Fred, if an when he runs. But people will get tired of this act if it goes on much past September.
i’m starting to think that i’ll hafta get used to
8 more years of the clintons!
ick.
bush boy is doing his best to elect a democrap for president in 2008.
One thing is for sure: I don’t think any one of the four major candidates (if you count McLame as “major”) can be assured of getting the voters of any of the other three until one is nominated. For ex., I don’t think we can say with confidence WHERE McLame’s voters would go, or Mitt’s. So that remains a wild card for both Fred and Rudy.
*snickering now* : )
Count me as one who is already tired of this "act" of Fred's.
Well, you can trail the leader for a while if you are sure you have the second gear when you need it. But I do think time is running out. Primaries are in, what? Jan?
Yup——(snicker) we can guess what the answers will be, eh?
Start in Jan/Feb I believe. I am beginning to believe that Fred does not have a "second gear".
http://www.ncsl.org/programs/legismgt/elect/2008_Pres_Primary_Calendar.htm
I think you’re right. Reminds me of the old game show...”I can name that tune in..... 5 seconds.” : )
Heheh-——more like “Survival-—primary politics.”
Maybe they can make a game show that merges the two, since they’re so in to merging countries...peoples....labor......goods...services...electricity production.........
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