Posted on 07/31/2007 5:07:58 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Is Rudy Giuliani hearing opportunity knock or is he hearing footsteps from behind?
The former New York mayor’s presidential campaign strategy initially seemed to be aimed at big primary states such as Florida and California, and largely ignoring early small states such as Iowa and New Hampshire.
This week, however, Giuliani unleashed radio ads trumpeting his conservative credentials in Iowa and New Hampshire right after a two-day swing through Iowa.
What gives? Some political observers say the Giuliani camp may be rethinking its big-states strategy because of the shifting political landscape, believing it can pick up moderate supporters from Arizona Sen. John McCain’s sinking presidential campaign.
Other analysts believe that Giuliani now feels pressured to show well in Iowa and New Hampshire to protect himself against Sen. Fred Thompson’s anticipated entry into the race. A high-profile actor and smooth-drawling Southerner, Thompson could chip away at Giuliani’s support in Florida — the first of the big states to vote, on Jan. 29, and one where Giuliani has spent a lot of time and money.
A new Mason-Dixon poll Friday found that Giuliani led Thompson in Florida only narrowly, 21-18 percent.
Giuliani campaign officials insist that their recent moves aren’t a change in strategy.
“We’ve always had a two-pronged strategy to do well in the early states and do well in the Feb. 5 states,” said Mike DuHaime, Giuliani’s campaign manager. About 20 states will hold primaries or caucuses on Feb. 5, including California, Illinois, Missouri, New York and New Jersey.
Scott Reed, who managed Kansas Sen. Bob Dole’s unsuccessful 1996 presidential campaign, isn’t convinced.
“This initial strategy of blowing off Iowa and New Hampshire is pretty risky, and I think they realize that,” Reed said. “He’s still got to figure out how he’s going to appeal to conservative voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.”
Giuliani leads the Republican field in most national polls, a status he’s enjoyed almost from the start of this early presidential campaign season. But he's suffered some slippage over the last several months as Thompson’s numbers have risen.
An ABC News/Washington Post Poll this released this week illustrates Giuliani’s dilemma. The former mayor topped the poll at 37 percent, followed by McCain at 16 percent, Thompson at 15 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 8 percent.
Giuliani registered 53 percent support in the same poll in February.
Enthusiasm for Giuliani also appears to be waning. In last week’s ABC/Post poll, 32 percent of Republicans said they “strongly” support Giuliani, down from 45 percent in April. His support among white evangelical Protestants, which helped fuel his rise, eroded from 53 percent in February to 37 percent this month.
“It seems as if people are waiting for Thompson,” said Maurice Carroll, the director of Connecticut’s Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Thompson isn’t Thompson: he’s the anti-Giuliani.”
Reed attributes the slide in support to conservatives who initially liked Giuliani because of his tough talk on terrorism and the way he led New York after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, but they've shifted away after learning more about his positions on key social issues. Giuliani supports abortion rights and same-sex civil unions.
“He’s ridden the ‘America’s Mayor’ magic carpet as far as it can go,” said Reed. “Giuliani’s challenge is to fill in the blanks on what a Giuliani presidency would look like.”
Giuliani is trying.
Last month, he unveiled his “12 Commitments,” 12 big promises of what he would do if elected president. His broad vows include keeping America on the offensive against terrorists, cutting federal spending, appointing strict constructionist federal judges, increasing the number of adoptions while decreasing the number or abortions and providing quality education through “real school choice to parents.”
His commitments are featured in one of three new 60-second radio ads that debuted on Iowa and New Hampshire airwaves Tuesday.
“We will require agency heads to present five to up to as much as 20 percent reductions in their annual budget,” Giuliani says in one ad, titled “Will Do.” “It’s the only way to reduce spending . . . I will restore fiscal discipline and cut wasteful spending in Washington.”
The ads increase Giuliani’s presence in two states where Romney is ever present, spending money freely and leading the Republican pack in most polls. While maintaining that Giuliani intends to compete everywhere, his campaign has made no bones about the importance of the big primary states where his appeal is likely to be strongest — Florida, New York, California, New Jersey and Illinois.
Giuliani appears to be putting a premium on Florida. He’s made 13 trips to the Sunshine State thus far, versus six to Iowa, seven to New Hampshire and eight to South Carolina. Giuliani has spent more than $400,000 in Florida in three months, according to campaign finance records released earlier this month, including $100,000 for copies of voter files from the state Republican Party.
DuHaime said earlier this month that the campaign, with more than $18 million in cash on hand, was expanding its operation beyond Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina “into big states like Florida, California and many others.”
Some 73 percent of Iowa Republicans identified themselves as conservative in 2000, the last year the state had a contested GOP caucus, according to Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire. That leaves a pool of 25 to 30 percent of Republicans who may be more moderate, and thus drawn to McCain or Giuliani. With McCain polling in single digits in Iowa, Giuliani could attract the lion’s share of that support.
“I think McCain’s problems, especially in Iowa, represent an opportunity for Giuliani,” Scala said. “Thompson getting in may hurt Giuliani, but he also hurts Romney, because you would have a three-way campaign, with Thompson and Romney fighting for conservative votes. Giuliani would have the moderate votes all to himself.”
Eric Davis, a political science professor at Vermont’s Middlebury College, said that Giuliani, despite radio buys in Iowa and New Hampshire, is still looking beyond those states to the Feb. 5 primaries.
“Radio doesn’t cost any money at all. The whole purpose of the ads was to generate buzz, get some free media, and maybe get a few conservatives to pay attention,” he said. “If Giuliani finishes ahead of McCain in Iowa or New Hampshire, he’s accomplished what he’s supposed to do and move on to face Romney on Feb. 5.”
POLL METHODOLOGY
The Mason-Dixon Florida poll of 400 likely voters in each party was taken July 23-26. Its error margin was plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Although Giuliani's three-point lead over Fred Thompson in the Mason-Dixon poll is within the survey's error margin of plus or minus 5 percentage points, it's correct to say, as the story does in graf six, that Giuliani leads Thompson narrowly in Florida. According to the science of statistical probability, the 21-18 Giuliani lead is more likely to be an accurate reflection of the sampled population than any other combination within the margin of error. (The combination least likely to be accurate is the one at the extremes of the margin of error, a 23-16 Thompson lead.)
The ABC News/Washington Post Poll was conducted July 18-21 with a random national sample of 1,125 adults. Additional interviews were conducted with an over-sample of randomly selected African-Americans for a total of 210 respondents. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full sample and plus or minus 5 percentage points for the sub-sample of 403 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
The last thing in the world this country needs,,,,
is TWO political parties to the 'left-of-center', both headed by LIBERAL, gun-grabbing, pro-amnesty, big government, pro-abortion, gay rights crusading New York lawyers.
The Republican Party has been drifting to the left for years now,,,,and Rudy is just the man to accelerate that movement LEFTWARDS--to achieve that LIBERAL dreamworld,,,
of BOTH POLITICAL PARTIES TO LEFT-OF-CENTER!!!!
Despite what people here on FR tout, Rudy holds leads in almost every state, and in most places two-to-one over Fred. Fred has made some excellent progress, but he's kind of stalled at around 20% until people decide he's serious, and by serious I mean ANNOUNCE.
Fred, on the other hand, had a terrible two weeks. His fundraising is about 1/5 that of Rudy for the same period; the stories about his wife aren't helping; and the Spence Abraham stuff drove off as many supporters as it may gain him.
I still think it will come down to a Fred/Rudy race, but just as I won't be surprised to see a sudden Fred surge, neither would I be surprised to see Rudy coast in at about 35-38% after the McLames and the other dwarves drop out.
Team Fred Offers a Defense of Their Fundraising Jim Geraghty
Team Fred offers a defense of their fundraising:
I’m sure you’ve seen the Politico story on Thompson raising more than $3 million in his first month - a sizable amount for someone who hasn't been running since 1999. Unfortunately, people are comparing this to active candidates, when the appropriate comparison is to equivalent exploratory periods. Here’s a little information you might find useful:
(1) In his first exploratory month, Thompson raised well over $3 million - more than 10x what Giuliani did in his first month and about 3x McCain. Here’s the initial exploratory month (from the time they started taking money) for GOP candidates...Giuliani - total raised in first month (Nov. 15-Dec. 15): $258,660
McCain - total raised in first month (Nov. 14-Dec. 14): $1,130,351
Romney - raised more money in his first month, but largely because he organized his big-dollar donors ahead of time to give himself a bit splash and he “loaned his committee at least $850,000 weeks before filing his statement of candidacy on Jan. 3”
(2) Under FEC rules, you are not allowed to raise funds “in excess of what could reasonably be expected to be used for exploratory activities”. Thompson has raised an appropriate amount for an exploratory phase. Note, however…
One month ago, the DNC attacked Thompson (in the Politico) for potentially raising more money than he’d need for the exploratory period and said they’d “argue aggressively” against him. The DNC rolled out that hit piece at Daily Kos claiming that Thompson was “Raising Funds Beyond What You Need To "Explore"” and the liberal activist outlet CREW said Thompson “appears to have raised far more money than necessary…”
After being attacked for raising “too much” money, Thompson is now being attacked for not spending his entire Exploratory focus on raising money.
(3) So far we’ve utilized no direct mail or telephone fundraising, and we have a burn rate below 20% - far below the other candidates.
It's a pugnacious defense, and almost convincing... until you figure that they probably would prefer to be in the situation where they have to defend raising $5 million or more.
Having said that, I wonder how many potential donors are holding off, because they want to donate to an actual, hat-in-the-ring candidate, not a dipping-my-toe-in-the-water potential candidate
shades of 'Anyone But Bush'
Despite what people here on FR tout, Rudy holds leads in almost every state, and in most places two-to-one over Fred
See Rudy Run
Why Giuliani, despite everything, remains the Republican frontrunner.
by Matthew Continetti
08/06/2007, Volume 012, Issue 44
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/013/930fwqji.asp
(snip)
“You know what this is like?” he says. “This is just like . . . a . . . an emergency response center!”
The glee with which Giuliani says this, the joy he clearly takes at being in a room that reminds him of places where he can be in charge, barking orders and leading others, helps explain his appeal as a presidential candidate. It’s an appeal that many in the press and in elite Republican circles seem not to have recognized. The conventional wisdom holds that as grassroots conservatives wake up to Giuliani’s differences with them on issues like abortion, they will ditch him in favor of someone else. That may be happening to some extent, but it hasn’t knocked Giuliani out of first place or undermined the rationale for his candidacy. Despite his variance on some issues with some conservatives, a decline in national public opinion
polls since early March, and a recent spate of harsh media coverage, Giuliani remains the frontrunner for the 2008 Republican nomination. He continues to lead in national polls and in many state polls. He’s winning the money race. And he’s preparing for the inevitable counterattack.
Nothing is guaranteed in politics, of course. And there’s no question Giuliani’s decline has been real. Charles Franklin, a political scientist and polling expert at the University of Wisconsin, estimates that the mayor’s support has fallen around 8 percentage points nationally since March. The trend in support for Giuliani in Iowa and New Hampshire is also downward. So far, Sen. John McCain’s estimated 10 percentage point decline nationally, and the hemorrhaging of cash and staff from his campaign, has overshadowed Giuliani’s downward trend. But the trend is there.
A combination of factors may have contributed to Giuliani’s decline. His aides say the drop in poll numbers is a fall from an “unnatural high,” the inevitable result of a competitive, four-way primary between Giuliani, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, and McCain. The aides go on to say Giuliani has not yet fully engaged in the campaign, whether through personal retail politics, television and radio advertising, or direct mail. Giuliani has visited Iowa only six times since entering the race.
(snip)
Fred can’t seem to raise any dough. The real choice? Well, I will support him if he can beat Rudy or Mitt or both but I want to see him in the race and on the trail coming up with agendas and descriptions of what he believes as a Pub. When we see that, perhaps we can judge his chances at winning the general election. Which after all, is the only and most important thing for Pubs to decide.
I'll be watching....and then laughing! : )
Oh sweet Jesus, when Rooty answers the $64,000 questions: "when did Rooty's wife, Jooty Giuliani, register and vote as a Republican? Did Jooty vote for GWB? Did Jooty vote for Rooty?"............the laughter will be heard round the world.
I don’t think that explanation flies very far, because it’s not FEBRUARY, but JULY. Everyone else got in basically at the same time and was competing with each other. Fred is coming in kind of as an encore, to a lot of special attention. I’m with Fred, if an when he runs. But people will get tired of this act if it goes on much past September.
i’m starting to think that i’ll hafta get used to
8 more years of the clintons!
ick.
bush boy is doing his best to elect a democrap for president in 2008.
One thing is for sure: I don’t think any one of the four major candidates (if you count McLame as “major”) can be assured of getting the voters of any of the other three until one is nominated. For ex., I don’t think we can say with confidence WHERE McLame’s voters would go, or Mitt’s. So that remains a wild card for both Fred and Rudy.
*snickering now* : )
Count me as one who is already tired of this "act" of Fred's.
Well, you can trail the leader for a while if you are sure you have the second gear when you need it. But I do think time is running out. Primaries are in, what? Jan?
Yup——(snicker) we can guess what the answers will be, eh?
Start in Jan/Feb I believe. I am beginning to believe that Fred does not have a "second gear".
http://www.ncsl.org/programs/legismgt/elect/2008_Pres_Primary_Calendar.htm
I think you’re right. Reminds me of the old game show...”I can name that tune in..... 5 seconds.” : )
Heheh-——more like “Survival-—primary politics.”
Maybe they can make a game show that merges the two, since they’re so in to merging countries...peoples....labor......goods...services...electricity production.........
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.