Guatemala's pre-election violence

The Economist ^ | 8/9/2007

[bruinbirdman]

From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire

The bloodiest election campaign in the country's history

Guatemalans are preparing to choose a new president on September 9th, in a climate marred by an increase in politically motivated violence. Despite a large field of candidates, a clear frontrunner has emerged, though he is unlikely to benefit from a legislative majority. The next government will face myriad challenges, but none will be more critical than addressing violent and organised crime, which is said to be increasingly infiltrating the political system itself.

According to human-rights and election monitors, this has been the bloodiest campaign period in Guatemala’s history. From March 2006 to date there have been an estimated 26-36 political murders of candidates and political activists. The victims hail from every political party, and include seven congressmen and other contenders for elected offices.

Difficult legacy
Guatemala is no newcomer to violence. The country was governed for three decades by repressive military regimes until it returned to democratic rule in 1985. It also suffered through 36 years of civil war, before peace was formally negotiated in 1996. That war pitted leftist insurgents against the US-supported military governments, and led to the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians.

Even after democracy and elections were restored, political violence continued. More recently it has been accompanied by attacks perpetrated by drug traffickers, street gangs, rogue soldiers and smugglers. The murder rate stands at around 6,000 per year, in a country of 14m inhabitants.

Indeed, many of the attacks this year are attributed to organised criminals intent on influencing elections and thereby gaining clout within the political system, at the local and national levels. Guatemala, like some of its Central American and Caribbean neighbours, has become a major transit route for the narcotics trade. Drug traffickers are said to be financing some campaigns, and to have already had considerable success in placing their supporters in various elected political posts. Addressing this problem, along with that of public security in general, will be among the biggest challenges facing the next president.

Diverse field
The field of candidates in this election, who number as many as 19, could hardly be more diverse. Among them is Rigoberta Menchú, an indigenous woman and human-rights worker who in 1992 won the Nobel Peace Prize for her work on behalf of the indigenous people. She is backed by a new party, the Encuentro por Guatemala (EG). Given that Guatemala’s population is 40% Mayan Indian, Ms Menchú had high hopes of appealing to a large share of the population. However, her chances seem to have rapidly faded, the result of a vague platform, concerns about her lack of experience and accusations of past associations with Marxist guerrillas.

Leading the race, with 37.6% of the probable vote according to a July 18th opinion poll, is a centre-left businessman, Alvaro Colóm, of the Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE). Mr Colóm, in his third bid for the presidency, lost to the current president, Oscar Berger of centre-right Gran Alianza Nacional (Gana), in the 2003 election.

Coming in behind Mr Colóm in the polls is Otto Pérez Molina, a former general and member of the rightist Partido Patriota (PP). He is campaigning largely on a law-and-order platform, and has 20.4% support. Another candidate, Alejandro Giammattei of Gana, who is a former director of the nation’s prisons, garners 12.1%. Ms Menchú trails far behind with a mere 5%.

A notable absentee from any substantial showing in recent polls has been Luis Rabbé, candidate of the Frente Republicano Guatemalteco (FRG). The FRG candidate in 2003, retired Gen Efraín Ríos Montt, came in third at that time.

Significantly, around one-third of those polled in recent surveys are either undecided or unwilling to express a preference. A runoff election will take place on November 4th if the frontrunner fails to get 50% of the vote on September 9th.

Fragmented system
Given current trends, we expect Mr Colóm to lead the next government, which will take office in January 2008. Mr Colóm espouses broad continuity with Mr Berger’s conservative policies, while seeking to increase social spending. A monitoring arrangement with the IMF will help maintain an orthodox fiscal stance and encourage improvements to the business environment. However, like the outgoing president, he is most unlikely to command a majority in Congress. The need to build and maintain an unwieldy coalition from a fragmented party spectrum could undermine governability and impede its ability to pursue reforms.

Mr Colóm will be charged with tackling a host of urgent needs. These include building confidence in Guatemala’s institutions, damaged in recent years by political interference ineffectiveness, and addressing the interests of a wide array of social groups. These groups have had little power within the country’s political institutions and have been increasingly exercising pressure through the courts and street demonstrations.

No exigency will be more pressing, however, than combating violent crime, and reforming the police and criminal justice systems, widely deemed to be corrupt and nearly in collapse. The breakdown in law and order was best exemplified by the February murder of three Salvadoran legislators visiting Guatemala and their driver, and the subsequent apparent assassination, while they were in custody, of the four police officers accused of carrying out the act. The incidents further heightened concerns about the links between police officers and organised crime, and about the government’s poor record on improving security (although they led to the resignation of several high-ranking security officers and the minister of interior, as well as reorganisation of other top security staff).

Soft or hard approach? Whether Mr Colóm, should he indeed reach the presidency, adopts the “mano dura” (firm hand) approach advocated by his hard-line rival, Gen Pérez Molina, remains to be seen. The problem may not be so easily solved, as is evident in the limited success in neighbouring countries (El Salvador) that have taken such an approach to organised crime and gangs. Further, in a country with such a repressive past, Mr Colóm, who identifies with social democracy, may wish to avoid any measures that smack of militaristic, authoritarian government.

Yet the pre-election violence—and the extraordinary measures the candidates themselves have had to take in order to stay safe—serve as constant reminders of the dire security situation. The new president is likely to feel immediate pressure to act.

[Nextrush]

That female candidate from among the Mayan Indians sounds like the Hugo Chavez backed one. I have no doubt that Mr. Chavez has some sort of stake in this election to spread Communism into Guatemala.