New world, if only China could sea

Beijing’s fears about the naval exercises by India and some other countries in the Bay of Bengal are irrational and outdated

The Indian Navy and the US Navy are to hold their regular periodic ‘Malabar’ exercise in the Bay of Bengal in September. Some 20 ships, mostly from the Indian and US navies, will take part. Vessels from Japan, Australia and Singapore are also expected to participate in this five-day exercise. This has drawn a lot of attention, especially from China and its admirers in India. They consider this a follow-up of the quadrilateral ministerial meeting held in May in Manila on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum among the foreign ministers of the US, India, Japan and Australia. Prior to this meeting, there was a demarche from Beijing expressing concern. India and Australia gave reassurances that the quadrilateral did not have any anti-Chinese connotation, and that it wasn’t directed against any country.

However, it is very difficult for people conditioned by the Cold War to see the realities of a new balance of power in which a war among the major powers armed with nuclear weapons is considered virtually impossible.

The US has a military alliance with Japan and Australia and therefore there is nothing unusual in holding such an exercise with them. India is not a military ally of any country, nor does it propose to be one. But India holds such exercises with various countries and a military exercise with China is under discussion. China recently participated in a military exercise of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation countries along with Russia and the Central Asian Republics. No one interpreted that as an anti-western or anti-US exercise.

The Indian Ocean area contains the energy routes to Japan, Australia, US and India. Some of the epicentres of terrorism adjoin this area. Both the western and eastern areas of the Indian Ocean are notorious for piracy. The Indian Navy had to rescue a pirated Japanese ship in the Arabian Sea. There is also considerable discussion about likely maritime terrorism in the future.

The US Navy happens to be the most powerful and largest navy in the Indian Ocean. The Indian Navy comes second. What is more natural than the two navies holding their usual exercise and inviting Japan, Australia and Singapore to participate in it? Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, addressing the Combined Commanders Conference on October 20 2005 said, “We must shed our Cold War shibboleths, rework our relationships with all major powers and emerging economies and improve our relations with all our economic partners and neighbours”. He added, “We must evolve a new paradigm of security cooperation relevant to an emerging multipolar world in which global threats will require global response.” The proposed exercise is in this spirit.

The ‘Malabar’ exercises between the Indian and US navies used to be held in the Arabian Sea. Presumably because of the sensitivity of the Iraq and Iran factor, the venue may have been shifted to the Bay of Bengal. It is also closer to Japan, Singapore and Australia.

Chinese fears about the naval exercise are as irrational as western fears about the expansion of the Chinese navy. The Chinese want the world to believe that China will “rise peacefully” but they are worried about India improving its relations with other major powers. China has had a tradition of aligning itself with one power (Soviet Union) and switching over and aligning itself with its adversary (the US) and again switching back. India has maintained a steadfast non-aligned position and is likely to do so.

Whatever may be the public pronouncements of Indian diplomats and politicians, India has reasons to be worried about China. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, addressing the Combined Commanders Conference referred to above, said, “We cannot also ignore the strategic cooperation that Pakistan has secured from China in many ways. We cannot rule out the desire of some countries to keep us engaged in low intensity conflict with some of our neighbours as a means of getting India bogged down in low level equilibrium”. China continues its assistance to Pakistan in nuclear and missile technologies. It was a Chinese bomb design that A.Q. Khan was selling to Libya. It is this behaviour of China that makes major powers worry about an Asia solely dominated by Chinese might.

Such a justified perception about China presumably led to the joint statement of May 1 2007, by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, US Defence Secretary Robert Gates, Japanese Foreign Secretary Taro Aso, and Japanese Defence Minister Fumio Kyuma when they spoke about a common strategic objective of continuing to build upon partnerships with India to advance areas of common interest and increased cooperation, recognising that India’s continued growth is inextricably linked to the prosperity, freedom and security of the region.

China is worried about the enhancement of India’s relations with other powers lest it should lose its flourishing market with those countries. China was closer to the US than India was, and during his visit to China in 1998 President Clinton even talked about China’s legitimate interests in the subcontinent. In economic terms, China is closer to the US and Japan than India is. China and its followers would prefer India to be isolated and subjected to technology apartheid as it was in the years of the Cold War when the US and the West helped to build up China.

A rising India needs the goodwill and cooperation of all major powers. India cannot afford to forget the surrogate threat created by China through arming Pakistan with nuclear and missile technologies. The more China continues to help Pakistan, the greater is the need for India to partner with other great powers. The naval exercise is one more step in cultivating international goodwill and security cooperation in a world made dangerous by China’s continuing proliferation policies.

“Chinese fears about the naval exercise are as irrational as western fears about the expansion of the Chinese navy.”

I don’t buy that part. There is nothing irrational about the West seeing China’s military build-up as a bad thing. What happens to Chinese who call for democracy and reform? A military run by tyrants is a threat.

Terrific article. East Indian Ocean piracy is actually a major problem that might just transcend geomilitary strategy.

India quietly dislikes China as much as we do. Same scenario - cash goes in search of ROI.

The optimist sticks out, though - China has a pretty full cart of apples and just needs to posture a little. Let them.

What is saving us from being invaded by China is that they do not have the oil and resources we have. I do not trust them nor the V.Putin president of so called democratic Russia.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, addressing the Combined Commanders Conference referred to above, said, “We cannot also ignore the strategic cooperation that Pakistan has secured from China in many ways. We cannot rule out the desire of some countries to keep us engaged in low intensity conflict with some of our neighbours as a means of getting India bogged down in low level equilibrium”.

That last sentence neatly encapsulates China's foreign policy toward India. It's nice to see an Indian leader acknowledge reality.

“Can the dragon swim?”

Republic of China on Taiwan has asked that question since 1949. Straits of Taiwan are much smaller than Indian Ocean.

So far, answer is still `no’.

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