Your analysis is interesting, thanks for posting it.
I don't see where McCain's diminishing band of supporters goes to any candidate in particular. These are likely oblivious legacy supporters, who Press 5 for McCain only because they are proud to recognize one of the names. When McCain departs, they will, like thistles, drift wherever the wind blows.
I am hoping McCain stays in the race, so he and Guiliani split the name recognition vote. The rubes who go ‘OHH I know that guy, checkmark beside his name.”
I hope that you are right. I based my prediction on the fact that Fred Thompson and John McCain were close when they were in the senate together. Fred Thompson was a supporter of campaign finance reform and often voted with John McCain. I don't doubt that some of Mr. McCain's voters in this poll are people just glad to recognize a name, but some are leftovers from his past runs. Many of these leftovers would gravitate towards someone who had been a friend of Mr. McCain in the past. Another possibility is that Mr. McCain may endorse Fred Thompson if he quits before the South Carolina primary.
Some of the McCain supporters may be just party loyalists who support whichever candidate has the best claim to it being "his turn" to run. No one had any enthusiasm for Bob Dole in 1996, but he did well in South Carolina because many of the stalwarts felt that it was "his turn" to have the nomination. If John McCain is effectively out of the race by December, I don't know where these people will turn. John McCain is the only candidate who can make a strong "it's my turn" argument this time.
Bill