Or, the DOW might be 7,800 a year from now, the dollar worth 20%-30% less than it is now, AND inflation will have made its reappearance...
My bet is that we get back to the Dow 10,000 range and discover that we cannot succeed as a nation with outsourcing manufacturing AND services while importing cheap illegal labor to drive down wages at home. We are in a long period of no real asset growth, just buried inflation. The inflation drops out of assets and into products as it shakes out, and . . . 10 years without real increase in wealth. What have we done as a nation that should increase our wealth? We aren’t making anything or providing services anymore relative to what we were doing.
Now do I know what I’m talking about? Nah. This is gut feel, not analysis.
Of course but my scenario, given the fundamentals, is far more likely. One can always claim a catastrophe may befall the world economy. If you do it every day then like a broken clock you will be right sometimes.
Keep in mind the DOW follows earnings not the opposite and earnings are still growing by double digits.
20%-30% of nothing isn't much.