In the first place, Id never heard of InTrade until 10 minutes ago, and still have never been to the site.
“Well, maybe it would be better to learn up a bit first, and then opine.”
Not necessary.
All I need to know is that 4.8% of the people there believe Ron Paul is going be the GOP Presidential nominee. That’s enough to tell me that whatever it is, approximately 4.8% of its members offering an opinion on the GOP nomination are:
A) delusional;
B) profoundly ill-informed; or
C) relatives of Ron Paul
Intrade is a futures market, not a poll. 4.8% represents the Intrade market's determination of the probability of Ron Paul winning the nomination. Go to the site, and check it out. It is quite interesting and informative.