Although the point for debate is what the wild cards are? The Rafale would be a very good platform, as would the Typhoon (particularly later tranches). Problem is cost, the need to wait for upgrades in radar/engine etc, and the fact that the Rafale/Typhoon would basically be at the same tier (and higher once upgrades are through) than India's SU-30MKIs, and thus creating a 'hi-hi' setup instead of hi-lo.
The GRipen is a great plane, and it woud serve the 'lo' low function pretty well while at the same time being quite lethal. Furthermore its upgrades include the AESA upgrade, engine upgrades, and so forth in the Gripen NG. A serious plane that is affordable, packs a lethal punch against anything the Pakistanis may have, and has a lot of cutting edge technologies. It should be the best pick if India was truly serious about a 'lo' fighter with stuff hidden up its sleeves, and it would be the second choice pick if the SuperBug was not included. Although it may win ....who knows.
Thus for now it seems like it is the SB and the MiG35. It would be really shocking if they chose the Typhoon (although that would make the Chinese and Pakistanis cry bl@@dy murder), the Rafale is terrific (and they WOULD have chosen the Mirage-2000 had it not been withdrawn and replaced with the Rafale) but it will most probably not be chosen (although France is one of the best weapons suppliers in the world since they give up to date technology and do not cut you off if you do something that makes the UN go ga-ga), and the F-16 blew its chances the moment the first Viper touched down in Pakistan all those years ago (LM would have to sweeten the deal to the nth degree, which they are probably trying to do ....if I recall correctly one of the LM head honchos mentioned that India might participate in the F-35 JSF program that LM makes). Anyways, maybe LM will get the rights from the United Arab Emirates for the AESA radar used on the UAE Vipers, and a case could be made for the Viper based on the closeness between India and Israel and the great work Israel has done on upgrading their F-16s (the 'Soufa' version). Thus miracles can happen, and the Viper is one of the best 'lo' aircraft around.
Anyways, it will probably be the SuperBug and the MiG. The number of planes will definitely be more than 126. The Gripen would have made the best choice, but it will probably not be selected. Had the Mirage not been withdrawn it would have definitely won.
And anything could happen given the time considerations ....goodness, we may even see F-16s flying in Indian colors, or even Typhoons (although the Viper and Typhoon probabilities are less than those of Craig tapping his foot in a girl's lavatory .....)
BTW, what are your thoughts on the other contenders. Not on the SuperBug and/or MiG, but on the others. Can any of them beat out the SB/MiG combo (not just on merit, since the Typhoon and Rafale easily outclass them, but also considering other factors like politics, costs, integration, the fact that the SU-30MKI is already the 'hi' fighter, and so forth)? Thanks.
Agree about the Gripen. However, I just can’t help but think support would be far more difficult than either the U.S. or Russian offerings.
Nice write up on the F/A-18, although for reasons unknown I feel a sense of antipathy towards them. It’s kinda like how I don’t like the F-22. The F-16 Block 60 has AESA radar too and can fire the AMRAAM, I feel I should point out.
However, how do you think that the F/A-18 support will be in the future. With the switch to the F-35, the F/A-18 will be slowly (or not) phased out of the U.S. inventory. The F-18 hasn’t caught on as well in the export market either—though 7 countries ain’t bad). What happens to all those F-18s then? To my knowledge, only the U.S. deals with production of the F-18, so I’d have to imagine support would be reduced. With the F-16, the Turks and the Koreans actually have the capability to produce their own. I can see both of these countries as being eager to pick up support duties for other operators if Lockheed Martin becomes too involved with the F-35.
IMHO, the F-16, F/A-18, and MiG-35 are only good as short-term solutions near the end of their developmental life. But unless I’ve read things wrong, India isn’t looking at these to be their aircraft of the future, just a stopgap.
I do think that the Indians might want to pick up a U.S. aircraft as the new technology might help them in their attempts to get their LCA and MCA off the ground. I feel they’ve already had a good look at Russian goods, so buying more wouldn’t really help them move their industry along.
The Mig-35 may turn out to be Old wine in a new bottle!!Sure it’s got 3-D thrust vectoring,but does it offer anything over the other competitors-it’s radar & most systems still exist only on paper & won’t enter Russian service anytime soon,if they ever do.To make matters worse,the Russians have been acting too pricey & truant
with India with cost escalations & delays in a number of programmes like the SU-30 & Admiral Gorshkov carrier.
The 2 main Eurojets are easily the newest aircraft in this competition & both were designed to counter the Flanker-that makes these aircraft attractive in themselves esp given that India’s neighbour to the North operates the 2nd largest fleet of Flankers.The delay in awarding this contract may actually work to the advantage of the Rafale/EF-2000 given that they won’t need hurry on development of new radars,it’s IR sensors or the Meteor missile.Don’t know how it panned out in reality,but the IAF was impressed with the Typhoon’s agility in a joint Indo-UK exercise last month.The Europeans being short of customers are also more likely to be flexible on transfer of technology.
An American system is almost certain if the Indo-US Nuclear deal goes through.
It could be Mig-35s, since its not only a good fighter, the IAF already operates the Mig 29, the Indian navy has recently brought the naval Mig 29K. Mig-35s seems very likely to win the race.
F-18s may win the race if it offers the most advanced version with latest weaponry. F-16s too may win the race. With the current Indo-US nuclear deal......... you never know. But I would really hate to see the F-16s in the IAF inventory unless its only a stop gap for future F-35s. Let alone the fact that F-16s would end up as easy targets for the new generation of Chinese fighters, even Paki F-16s would be able to match up with their vast experience at handling F-16s. Neither F-16s nor the F-18s have the range to cover the vast Chinese airspace. If IAF buys F-16s then India has already lost the war.
Personally I would love to see the Eurofighters in the IAF but thats not likely to happen. Also havent heard must about the Gripens or the Rafaels for a long time in the Indian press. I guess they are out of the race already. And anyways the LCA is the same category as the Gripens in terms of size, performance and characteristics. No point buying Gripens.
The best option for India and my personal favourite is the F-35. Thats whats IAF should aim for. Every else should only be a stop gap arrangement until the arrival of the F-35s.