What do you think are the chances for the Rafale and the Typhoon, and more importantly how would they fit into InAF doctrine?
The original plan-back in the late 90s was to go in for hi-lo mix with a planned fleet by 2020 consisting of the SU-30,the Mirage-20005 & the LCA with the remaining types being relegated backwards or retired.The problem was that the LCA got delayed,the upgrade programmes(Mig-21/27 & Mirage-2000) for various jets got delayed while the French got rigid on price negotiations.All this combined with the rapid improvement in Indo-US ties have led us to this situation.
I honestly don’t know what the chances are of any of these platforms barring the fact that an American jet will most probably be selected (provided the nuclear deal goes through).A 2way split is not desirable,but it may become unavoidable to speed up negotiations.Left to me,-I’d probably sign up for 120 Gripen-NGs or Eurofighters & get it over with!! Though the Russians will be peeved.The Eurofighter & Rafale are better equipped than the SU-30 to fly SEAD missions & stand-off precision strikes & if their radar/missile combo develops on time,they can also be used for cruise missile defense(don’t think that’s something the Russians think about a lot).The nuclear & maritime strike roles will ideally remain the preserve of the SU-30.