Posted on 08/30/2007 7:57:51 AM PDT by presidio9
The Republican National Committee is expected to sanction Florida for holding its primary on January 29, 2008, but that is not likely to prevent the state from holding the make-or-break contest of the campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.
The rules are clear, a spokeswoman for the committee, Tracey Schmitt, said. Florida will lose half of its 114 delegates to the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-Saint Paul next September because it jumped ahead of the February 5 firewall the national party sought to maintain on behalf of the traditional early states. But the chairman of the Florida Republican Party, Jim Greer, appears defiant, saying that even in the "unlikely event" his state is penalized at the convention, 57 delegates "is more delegates than most states."
More important than delegates, however, is the momentum Florida will provide to the Republican candidate who emerges victorious. While in past years political pundits have seen Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina as the crucial tests of a national candidacy, this year's quirky primary schedule Â-- featuring a February 5 "Super Duper Tuesday," on which Americans in upward of 20 states are expected to cast votes Â-- has turned that old wisdom on its head. Theoretically, a candidate could have a mixed result in the traditional, small early states but then use Florida as a springboard into the February 5 primary, which includes other big states, such as New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California.
The candidate seen as most aggressively pursuing such a strategy is Mayor Giuliani. Earlier this week, the Washington Post obtained an internal campaign PowerPoint presentation calling Florida the Giuliani camp's "firewall." The former New York mayor's campaign appears touchy about the Florida strategy,
(Excerpt) Read more at nysun.com ...
Yes, it’s going to be Giuliani.
No, I’m pretty sure that was Dan Rather.
Heh. Well one Hunter voter here in Florida. Guilianni. Nope.
Well, since none of the Dems will be voting in their primary they will certainly feel free to mess with the Republican one. That, I believe is the true reason they are refusing to acknowledge the Dem convention delagates from Fla.
You know in a close election, wouldn’t it be better to be the last state to vote??? I think the Thompson-Rudy-Romney could go down to the wire. Why do you care to vote early just so your votes can be ‘important’ in the case of a blowout.
How can I get into the “make stuff up and declare that it’s true and get on the news” business?
Florida won’t decide the GOP nominee. Usually, candidates win their homestates and boarding states. On Jan. 14, Iowa will be won by Romney or Huckabee, since they were the top two in the straw poll. On Jan. 19, McCain will win Nevada. On Jan. 22, Romney will win New Hampshire, and Tancredo will win Wyoming. On Feb. 5, McCain will win Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah. Huckabee will win Arkansas and Tennessee (unless Fred Thompson runs). Hunter will win California and Oregon. Tancredo will win Colorado. Romney will win Connecticut and Rhode Island. Brownback will win Missouri and Oklahoma. Giuliani will win New York and New Jersey. I know that a few of my predictions are wrong, but I’ll probably be right about at least 12 of those 18 states.
In the free market of ideas, wouldn't it be interesting if a bunch of small states banded together and held their primary late in the season? Granted they'd have to hold enough electoral votes (or delegates) to make a difference but a big win for a second-place candidate right before the convention would have an interesting impact. What if that woman had a slim majority of delegates but Osama Obama trounced her in the Small State Derby three weeks before the convention?
I just hope we don't see a national primary day or even regional primaries come out of this. There is a certain benefit to having a crazy quilt of primaries spread out over time and distance. Let the candidates spend a boatload of money (go economy!) and get nice and tired. After all, most crises they'd face in office don't come when they are well-rested and wide awake. The primary system is the closest thing we have to a try-out. Let's see how a candidate handles the pressure. Let's get the leaks from the campaign bus. Let's hear the audio and see the video from those stump speeches in the otherwise insignificant backwaters when a candidate might not be at their pampered best.
A national or regional primary makes all that go away. Candidates can easily manage the time, select the big markets and ignore the rest, control access and keep it all Madison Avenue. Why it's almost as if the parties were causing the crisis on purpose! :)
I agree that the nomination will be close, and I hope that the nominee won’t be decided before the convention. If we don’t know who the nominee will be until the convention, the convention will be more suspenseful and exciting, causing more people to watch and hear the great republican ideas. I hope that the Democrat’s convention has less unity than the republican convention, causing many of them to vote for the Green Party candidate.
Delegates needed= 1259
Jan (maybe into Dec) = 354 <— 27 from Fla.
Feb 5 = 1002
Rest of Feb = 264
Mar = 366
Apr = 113
May = 294
June = 84
oops <— 57 from Fla, instead of 114
Damn! About the same time as Frances in’04! Stay away!
Uh! Never mind. Wrong thread.
If you really want to lose the election, just piss off the Florida voters again and see where that gets you.
Like it or not Florida is now the 3rd largest state and the next census, not in time for the increase in electoral votes in 08, will make it official.
The Floridian delegate count is huge and ignoring it is a peril that no GOP nominee should even think about.
Incidentally, Rudy has a great strategy about this, and Fred had best jump in on the 5th and hit the trail running.
The clintons have most likely written off Florida, and will campaign here enough to keep the GOP honest and spending money, much like we do in SSNJ.
This is all payback to the Clintons from Howard Dean. As of right now, the first states are Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and Florida. From what I have seen in the latest polls, Obama is in striking distance in Iowa (next to his home state), South Carolina (where nearly half the Democrats are black), and New Hampshire (which likes to give front runners fits). Florida is the first major primary in which Clinton has a secure lead, but the Howard Dean led DNC has disqualified Florida’s delegates. As a result, Obama could ride into Feb 5 upon a wave of liberal enthusiasm built on better than expected results, and perhaps some upsets, in the early primaries. The Clinton campaign, on the other hand, will be viewed as “disappointed” over her performance thus far.
Romney will win Iowa and New Hampshire, and other results will be mixed, eg South Carolina may be good for Thompson and then maybe Romney, Florida maybe Rudy, Thompson, Romney.
The national polls show none of the GOP candidates above 25%.
Key question - are these primaries “winner take all” or do they split the delegates?
If going in to the big February weeks it is still split that way, it will could be a ‘split decision’ race with a group of top tier candidates sharing most delegates.
Thompson, Romney, and Rudy will be in that top tier, and it’s possible none of the three will get a majority unless at least one of them implodes.
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