Jobless Claims Rise To A 4-Month High Amid Housing Woes

INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY ^ | 8/30/2007 | SCOTT STODDARD

[expat_panama]

Even with new jobless claims rising last week to their highest level since April, many economists say housing-related job losses may be a lot worse than official data show.

First-time claims rose for a fifth straight week to 334,000, the Labor Department said Thursday, as the economy slows from its brisk pace in the second quarter.

The four-week average of continuing claims rose to 2.561 million, the most since January 2006.

 

"Jobless claims drifting up as they have is consistent with a slowdown" in GDP growth in the second half of the year, said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia.

The uptrend comes as mortgage-related firms slash tens of thousands of jobs amid a housing slump and credit crunch.

Housing starts have crashed 40% from their peak. But construction jobs have fallen just 1% from their cyclical high of 7.725 million reached last September.

Economists say the actual employment figure probably is much lower, partly because builders haven't reported layoffs of undocumented workers and other off-the-books personnel.

"There's a fair amount of labor in the construction industry that is not captured in the payroll survey," said Steve Cochrane, an economist at Moody's Economy.com.

Construction employment may be 160,000 below what current government data show, according to a study last month by Macroeconomic Advisers.

"There are less and less jobs every day," said Mario Lopez, lead organizer for the Cypress Park Community Job Center in Los Angeles. "It's a real problem for us."

If job losses are larger than official stats, consumer spending may face more pressure.

[expat_panama]

Ever since '01 we've had nothing but talk about the worst economy since Hoover.  Now we actually do have people out of work, and the fact that it's in home construction makes it a leading indicator.

The forward economic indexes don't look as good as the backward looking ones.

[expat_panama]

fwiw

[struwwelpeter]

"There are less and less jobs every day," said Mario Lopez, lead organizer for the Cypress Park Community Job Center in Los Angeles. "It's a real problem for us."

Us? Looks like there's another story here.

[YellowRoseofTx]

Now we actually do have people out of work, and the fact that it's in home construction makes it a leading indicator.

I'll bet it's mostly illegals. I think they are the most losing their homes they got with loans they didn't intend to pay for and jobs lost by the somewhat crack down. I'm not worried about this.

[Petronski]

[expat_panama]

I'll bet it's mostly illegals.

You're not alone in that bet; from the article:

"Economists say the actual employment figure probably is much lower, partly because builders haven't reported layoffs of undocumented workers and other off-the-books personnel."

[expat_panama]

LOL!!!!

Thanks, I needed a little overstatement today.

[mtbopfuyn]

Simple solution is to move to Montana where they can demand their own salary. McDonald’s can’t even find anyone to work for $10/hr.

[Moonman62]

Ever since '01 we've had nothing but talk about the worst economy since Hoover.

W is a Hoover. Fortunately, there are enough people who know better that kept him from doing too much damage to the economy, though he's trying again.

[Moonman62]

Construction employment may be 160,000 below what current government data show, according to a study last month by Macroeconomic Advisers.

The Federal Reserve will be the last to know.

[mmichaels1970]

I think you're right. Look at Page 5 in this "Hispanic Organizations - California" guide. Note that the Instituto de Educacion Popular Del Sur De California is located at the Cypress Park Community Job Center. They may be in for tougher times than they know.

[mmichaels1970]

From the "Instituto's" organizer's web page:

Mission
to create a more humane and democratic society by responding to the needs and problems of disenfranchised people through leadership development and educational programs based on Popular Education methodology. Specifically our goal is to organize and educate members of low-income Latino immigrants concerned with solving problems in their own communities.

[Toddsterpatriot]

"There are less and less jobs every day," said Mario Lopez, lead organizer for the Cypress Park Community Job Center in Los Angeles.

He dances, he organizes, is there anything Mario Lopez can't do?

[struwwelpeter]

Dang, this grabbed me: "The US government has to address the legalization a more humane and just fashion (sic)".

I was just on a thread arguing the meaning of "humane", but it was not in the sense that the "organizer" (commie word alert!) probably intended ;-)

[wideawake]

I hope you are not being flip about the incredible economic collapse America is currently enduring!

Didn't you read the headline! This is the highest unemployment America has seen in the past 120 days!

We haven't seen hardship like this since Blades Of Glory hit the theaters.

[Teacher317]

The highest in four whole months!! We're all gonna die!!!

(Now if we compare the percentages to other periods and presidents, as an honest journalist might... ?)

[mmichaels1970]

Check their website out....wonderful. Look at their "Programs".

HUMAN RIGHTS AND IMMIGRANT RIGHTS

IDEPSCA's commitment to worker rights have been present through the programs we offer Day Laborers and Domestic workers. Through our services we continue to strengthen the population in which we work with. Our goals are to:

• Maintain and develop worker centers as a sacturary for undocumented immigrants
• Maintain and continue developing leadership programs
• Continue developing the Artistic Expression of Workers through Photographs and Cultural events.

So these are the guys that are being interviewed about how bad the U.S. Economy is going.....Nice source.

[struwwelpeter]

I smell bolshevik.

[CPOSharky]

Sub-prime loans going south, home building startups down, construction lay-offs, house prices dropping.

Gee, is there some connection with greedy lenders?

Or is it the US’s immigration policies?

No matter, it’s W’s fault.

[AdvisorB]

I smell bolsheviks. And what a stench.