Posted on 09/03/2007 6:02:14 AM PDT by CarrotAndStick
Ships, aircraft and submarines from four countries begin week-long war games in the Bay of Bengal on 4 September. It is the first flexing of muscles by the newly-formed "Quadrilateral Initiative", which brings together the US, Japan, India and Australia. Singapore also has a small presence in the exercises. Many analysts see the manoeuvres as efforts by a democratic coalition to "contain" rising Chinese power. Although the participants deny this, Beijing seems to be increasingly worried. Beijing unconvinced When the four powers set up the initiative (informally named the Quad) in Manila last May, a deeply-concerned Beijing sent formal protests to the four governments.
Quad members reassured China that their "strategic partnership" was only aimed at maintaining regional security, and was not targeting any particular power. A month later, Chinese President Hu Jintao sought clarification from Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the G8 summit in Germany. Although he received reiterations of peace and friendship, Chinese commentary suggests Beijing was not convinced. Dubbed Malabar 07-02, these are the biggest joint manoeuvres Indian warships have participated in. They were preceded by extensive discussions in Delhi. In July, Australia's Defence Minister, Brendan Nelson, set out the policy framework of defence collaboration.
A month later, Admiral Russell Shalders, commander of the Australian navy, visited India - to work out the mechanics of collaboration and the details of the exercises. Just days later, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrived in Delhi, offering substantial economic and commercial assistance if India agreed to anchor "an Asian arc of freedom" stretching across the Indian and Pacific Oceans and providing a democratic bulwark - presumably against non-democratic powers. Defence coalition As Mr Abe prepared to leave, his Defence Minister, Yoriko Koike, and the Commander of US Pacific Command, Admiral Timothy Keating, arrived in Delhi, to finalise details of defence co-operation and Malabar 07-02. This flurry of senior-level exchanges and the size and complexity of the manoeuvres add weight to the arguments of those who say that the Quad is rapidly gelling into a defence coalition. Two US aircraft carriers and one from India, as well as 11 other US ships will join more than a dozen vessels from India, Australia and Singapore to test out how well they can work together against common threats.
Although Quad members insist China has nothing to fear, a similar exercise (Malabar 07-01) involving US, Indian and Japanese warships churned the waters of the South China Sea in April. Bilateral war games are not new for Quad members, but there seems recently to have been a new momentum. Defence papers issued by all four governments have described China as a potential threat, and that combined with the launch of the Quad suggest a pattern of alliance-building activities that China cannot ignore. Perhaps as a sign of things to come, 1,600 Chinese troops travelled to Russia's Ural mountains to join several thousand mostly Russian troops in "Peace Mission 2007" manoeuvres in August. These ended as President Vladimir Putin hosted Hu and the presidents of four other Shanghai Co-operation Organisation countries (after their annual summit in the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek) at the closing ceremony. Mr Putin then announced the resumption of long-range bomber sorties towards Nato airspace, which had been suspended after the Soviet collapse. The Cold War may not be back, but with trade and security tensions rising between the US, China and Russia, a chill wind seems to be blowing as Asia redesigns its strategic alignments. |
Prudent planning. And in the event of a showdown or actual war, there would likely be room for others in this alliance, including the Republic of China.
Good.
The world’s failure to adequately back Taiwanese defense has created the Chinese arms buildup. They can see a prize not too far out of their grasp, so it is worth reaching for.
We can thank Losers Nixon and Kissinger for this
“... a chill wind seems to be blowing...”
I got your ‘chill wind’ right here Mr. Robbins.
All the countries involved in this series of exercises are excellent sailors as I can personally attest to, as I have seen all of those Navies in action. Plus, the GDP of the “Quad” outweighs the rest of the world combined. Freedom rocks.
If the Russians were wise, they would join this alliance, at least covertly--and get busy making more Russians.
As for the Europeans, they are so anesthenized by denial and decadence that they cannot see the threat within their own borders, and it's doubtful that they have even noticed China--and if anybody understands decadence and denial--and their heavy cost--it's the Chinese!
No trade with communists.
Regards
“Quad members reassured China that their “strategic partnership” was only aimed at maintaining regional security, and was not targeting any particular power.”
Sure. “Me and the boys just decided to play Navy.” To the tune of millions of bucks.
China is getting the message. I wonder what their response will be.
Actually, it never left in China. We are only now belatedly recognizing our peril, and at some minimal level, responding...after having gone merrily along with the delusory day-dream of all being mutual "stakeholders" in Bush's New World Order. As Deng Xiaoping told Clinton's ambassador:
There are some nice warnings from various authors on the subject. The most prolific exposes' of Red China, besides Bill Gertz, and Ken Timmperlake, is D.J. McGuire. A short snippet from his book, Dragon in the Dark:
For Communist China, the terrorist war is simply another stage in their undeclared cold war with the United States. Just as World War II was another stage in the first Cold War for the Soviets, the war on terror is a stage of Cold War II for the People’s Republic.
We are not only in a declared war against terrorism, but also an undeclared war against Communist China. If we are to secure the benefits of victory in the terrorist war, we must also do all we can to win Cold War II.
For a period of at least three years, Communist China saw the Taliban and al Qaeda not as dangers to international stability, but as tools to be used against the United States.
Their initial view of Osama bin Laden and the Taliban was best described by Lam: “countries and elements such as Iraq and the bin Laden group constitute some kind of check on United States power” (emphasis added). After the events of September 11, 2001, the Communists took stock of the world, and decided that, in Lam’s words again, “it is not yet time to take on the United States” (emphasis added).
In January 2001, the Washington Times reported that Communist China was selling missile technology to Iraq – contradicting earlier pledges from the People’s Republic that it would stop doing so. Less than a month later, the press revealed that American bombers had targeted a fiber-optic network built for Iraqi air defenses by Huawei Technologies, and ZTE, both firms from Communist China.
Prior to September 11, 2001, Communist China and Iran already had strong military ties going back roughly a decade. In 1991, the Communist sold two tons of uranium to Iran, thus effectively giving birth to the mullahs’ nuclear weapons program. Communist China also helped Iran with its secret nuclear plants.
(T)he People’s Republic “still thinks Beijing and Pyongyang should maintain a ‘lips and teeth’ relationship, and that any attack on North Korea – even a limited offensive to wipe out its nuclear installations – would be a challenge to Chinese power and even sovereignty.”
For India the terrorist war and Cold War II are already one and the same.
In many respects, American policy on Communist China suffers from a serious disconnect. This is due to the fact that many policymakers see Communist China from a purely economic perspective, focusing not on its weapons sales, its saber-rattling against its neighbors, or its unstinting support of Stalinist, terrorist North Korea, but instead on its façade of “reform” and its voracious desire for foreign capital. This has clouded what should be very clear – that Communist China is a danger to America’s interests and American security.
If the People’s Republic were itself a victim of real terror, that fact could be used as a way to prod them away from its ties to other terrorist regimes. If, as is really happening, Communist China is merely using the war as cover to repress an independent nation it has conquered, then weaning the Communists off their ties to real terrorism is ridiculous to assume, and the anti-Americanism of Communist policies comes much more into focus.
June 4, 1989 led the Communists to shift away from the first Cold War – between the Soviet Union and the United States – and lay the groundwork for Cold War II – between themselves and the United States.
Victory in Cold War II and the terrorist war will come when American policy makers realize that the two are linked in several areas, and that both our enemies act for the same reason – fear of the United States and the liberty under which it governs itself. Both the terrorists and the Communists know they cannot measure up to American freedom. For Communist China, the terrorist war is simply another stage in their undeclared cold war with the United States. Just as World War II was another stage in the first Cold War for the Soviets, the war on terror is a stage of Cold War II for the People’s Republic. We are not only in a declared war against terrorism, but also an undeclared war against Communist China. If we are to secure the benefits of victory in the terrorist war, we must also do all we can to win Cold War II. For a period of at least three years, Communist China saw the Taliban and al Qaeda not as dangers to international stability, but as tools to be used against the United States. Their initial view of Osama bin Laden and the Taliban was best described by Lam: “countries and elements such as Iraq and the bin Laden group constitute some kind of check on United States power” (emphasis added). After the events of September 11, 2001, the Communists took stock of the world, and decided that, in Lam’s words again, “it is not yet time to take on the United States” (emphasis added). In January 2001, the Washington Times reported that Communist China was selling missile technology to Iraq – contradicting earlier pledges from the People’s Republic that it would stop doing so. Less than a month later, the press revealed that American bombers had targeted a fiber-optic network built for Iraqi air defenses by Huawei Technologies, and ZTE, both firms from Communist China. Prior to September 11, 2001, Communist China and Iran already had strong military ties going back roughly a decade. In 1991, the Communist sold two tons of uranium to Iran, thus effectively giving birth to the mullahs’ nuclear weapons program. Communist China also helped Iran with its secret nuclear plants. (T)he People’s Republic “still thinks Beijing and Pyongyang should maintain a ‘lips and teeth’ relationship, and that any attack on North Korea – even a limited offensive to wipe out its nuclear installations – would be a challenge to Chinese power and even sovereignty.” For India the terrorist war and Cold War II are already one and the same. In many respects, American policy on Communist China suffers from a serious disconnect. This is due to the fact that many policymakers see Communist China from a purely economic perspective, focusing not on its weapons sales, its saber-rattling against its neighbors, or its unstinting support of Stalinist, terrorist North Korea, but instead on its façade of “reform” and its voracious desire for foreign capital. This has clouded what should be very clear – that Communist China is a danger to America’s interests and American security. If the People’s Republic were itself a victim of real terror, that fact could be used as a way to prod them away from its ties to other terrorist regimes. If, as is really happening, Communist China is merely using the war as cover to repress an independent nation it has conquered, then weaning the Communists off their ties to real terrorism is ridiculous to assume, and the anti-Americanism of Communist policies comes much more into focus. June 4, 1989 led the Communists to shift away from the first Cold War – between the Soviet Union and the United States – and lay the groundwork for Cold War II – between themselves and the United States. Victory in Cold War II and the terrorist war will come when American policy makers realize that the two are linked in several areas, and that both our enemies act for the same reason – fear of the United States and the liberty under which it governs itself. Both the terrorists and the Communists know they cannot measure up to American freedom.
It would be great if in the event of actual hostilities this alliance would, in fact, work in concert. I’m afraid any American involvement would be limited to the duration allowed under the War Powers Act, as I have very little confidence a Democrat-controlled Congress would support any action against one of its communist friends.
Free trade for free countries.
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