Posted on 09/05/2007 10:46:46 PM PDT by Josh Painter
Maxwell, IA. A nationwide Straw Poll conducted by Grassfire.org in the week prior to Fred Thompsons presidential bid announcement finds that grassroots conservatives favor Fred Thompson by a greater than 2-to-1 margin over his nearest competitor -- a 4 percent increase since May.
When asked whom they would vote for if the Republican primary were held today, 28 percent preferred Fred Thompson (up from 26 percent in May), whose closest rival, Mitt Romney, gained 14 percent of the vote (down 2 percent from May). Despite talk of Thompsons stalled campaign this summer, conservatives have not lost confidence in the former Senator, says Grassfire.org President Steve Elliott.
Rep. Ron Paul showed the biggest gain from Grassfires May poll, rising from seventh position (6 percent) to a solid third position (13 percent) more than a 50 percent increase in support among grassroots conservatives. Mike Huckabees support also rose, from 3 to 7 percent. Pauls rise shows that conservatives are not all that thrilled with the anointed front-runners, says Elliott. Pauls message is resonating with many conservatives, and it would be wise for the other candidates to take note.
Other findings:
Although they favor Thompson, conservatives still expect Giuliani to win the nomination.
Conservatives warn of an exodus should Giuliani face Clinton in the general election with 29% indicating they would abstain or vote for a third party -- an increase of 4% from Grassfires May poll. Slightly less (25%) warned of an exodus in a Romney-Clinton general election.
Conservatives now overwhelmingly expect Clinton to win the Democratic nomination (70%, up from 50% in May). The expectation of an Obama nomination dropped from 29 to 15%.
Conservatives have given up on McCain. The Senator lost half his support (down to 4%) while dropping by two-thirds among those who think he is likely to win (from 14 to 4%).
Support for staying the course in Iraq dropped from 67% in May to 58% in August, while the percentage of conservatives calling for withdrawal rose from 16 to 22%.
Survey methodology: Grassfire.org conducted the survey August 27-September 2. All active Grassfire.org team members were invited to participate. 39,440 participated. The survey has a margin of error of less than 1% at a 99% confidence level for the Grassfire.org audience of approximately 1 million grassroots conservatives.
For more information about Grassfire.org, or to schedule an interview with Grassfire President Steve Elliott, contact Ron De Jong at 757-487-7900 or email Ron De Jong
“”Mitt Romney, gained 14 percent of the vote (down 2 percent from May). “”
Ouch!
Conservative BTTT for Fred.
I call BS. In May the surge was really just gathering steam, now it is making so much progress that even diehard, Bush-hating libs have to admit it is working. And in the face of this, conservative support for the war is waning? I simply don't agree.
bump
Why? Because they have been conditioned by the media and elements of the GOP to believe Giuliani is invincible?
You may want to note the 7% rise in support for Ron Paul in the same poll while considering that. It tells me a lot of RP supporters signed up and participated in the poll.
O.K., I’m bragging. But, I just made my first ever political donation. It was only $10, but it was a start. I’m excited that I don’t have to choose between Mitt, Rudy, or John. Thank God for Fred!
Fred’s the first candidate I have ever donated to, as well, and I have been a political junkie since I had the honor of voting for Reagan’s second term right out of high school.
I think people underestimate the strength of Fred’s grassroots support.
Actually, Fred might be the first republican I’ve voted for. I’ve lived in California (THE BAY AREA) all my life, and I’ve always thought my vote didn’t count...and the people running weren’t enough for me. Fred makes me want to vote, and he makes hopeful for this country.
Now I’m fairly young, and I realize most of these people voting are much older than me. This is my future, and I really feel like voting for him will ensure that. I just can’t imagine raising a child in a world where we meet these challenges with ‘dem solutions’. Most especially in the executive branch.
Thankfully we have cheerleaders like yourself, politicalmom...whom are most likely thinking about their children first. Maybe by the end of this race we can unite as conservatives and make our best effort to ensure our long-term future. We really need every cyclinder on this one, and I pray that we have that in us.
Agreed! It was like being trapped in a cheap Dollar Store for Presidential Candidates!
Ditto here. When he first started his exploratory committee, I had my $25 in there within 24 hours. When he announced a few hours ago, my second $25 was in there within 1/2 hour. Proud and hopeful to give money to Fred.
It appears that all the “talk” of a stalled campaign is just that.
Exactly - and if you look at the poll, support for L. Ron Paul soared as well, which is so unlikely that I think we can safely dismiss this.
Polls don’t mean a lot as to eventual outcome, but these numbers are encouraging for Fred. This is consistent with a lot of other polls, as far as his numbers go. Ron Paul, who can tell what is going on there? Where oh where do they find these people. They always seem to know where to go...
Good for you. I was born in Redondo Beach, but was raised mostly in Saratoga. I know what being a conservative in CA is like.
We’re going to win this one. :)
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