Tropical Storm Gabrielle

NOAA/NHC ^ | 07 September 2007 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

From the 11PM Discussion:

There are currently many negative factors involved in the future development of Gabrielle. The storm has cooler air to the north at low levels...very dry air to the south and west at the upper levels...is experiencing southerly vertical wind shear...and is passing over waters that have cooled a few degrees over the past couple of days. On the positive side...the shear may decrease as Gabrielle approaches the coast...and this could occur over the deep warm water of the Gulf Stream. The SHIPS model calls for a peak intensity of 63 kt...the GFDL 68 kt...and the hwrf 37 kt. Given all the negatives...the intensity forecast will stay on the low side of the guidance...calling for a peak intensity of 50 kt near landfall. After recurvature...Gabrielle should gradually merge with a frontal zone and become extratropical.

It should be noted that there is a possibility of center reformation
due to the elongated nature of the system. While such reformation
would not change the overall steering pattern...it could have an
affect on if and where the center makes landfall.

[PeteB570]

We’ll be “hiding out :-)” in our bunker up here in Fayetteville.

Don’t expect much, except some yard clean up down at the beach house - So far! We’ll see.

[TheLion]

[nevergore]

Thanks guys...I have several employees in its path, I can always replace the equipment.....

[scrabblehack]

OK, here’s one for you:

Hurricane Ivan, 2004:

Why did Ivan go from being an extratropical depression to a tropical depression despite not crossing the tropic of cancer?

ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 9.70 -27.60 09/02/18Z 25 1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
3 9.70 -30.30 09/03/06Z 35 1005 TROPICAL STORM
11 9.50 -43.40 09/05/06Z 65 987 HURRICANE
57 32.50 -87.40 09/16/18Z 50 975 TROPICAL STORM
58 33.80 -86.50 09/17/00Z 30 986 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
64 38.40 -76.70 09/18/12Z 15 1000 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
65 38.00 -75.50 09/18/18Z 25 1002 EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
66 37.50 -74.00 09/19/00Z 35 1003 EXTRATROPICAL STORM
71 29.00 -78.50 09/20/06Z 35 1008 EXTRATROPICAL STORM
72 27.50 -78.70 09/20/12Z 30 1009 EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
76 25.80 -81.70 09/21/12Z 25 1009 EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
77 25.20 -82.80 09/21/18Z 25 1010 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
82 27.10 -89.50 09/23/00Z 35 1007 TROPICAL STORM
86 29.60 -93.20 09/24/00Z 30 1003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[CindyDawg]

Speaking of yard work...it was sad but I couldn’t help but chuckle the other day when I read about a guy that went thru a storm. He said he had 11 uprooted trees in his yard and was puzzled how that could be since he only had 8 to begin with.

[CJ Wolf]

Well, of course this is because the extratropical remnant low of Ivan split off from the frontal system and drifted southward in the western Atlantic for several days, crossed southern Florida, and re-entered the Gulf of Mexico on the 21st. The low re-acquired tropical characteristics, becoming a tropical storm for the second time on the 22nd in the central Gulf. Ivan weakened before it made its final landfall in southwestern Louisiana as a tropical depression on the 24th.

[Elle Bee]

I always look at September 8th as 'hump day' for the hurricane season.

Here's hoping that we get through the next half of this media much anticipated 'above average' season with equal excitement. I think the key is to spend on harding your home and then nothing happens .... sort of the antithesis of washing the car and bringing on the rain

I also hope those south of us make a quick recovery from the one two punch of August

.

[CindyDawg]

Are they concerned this one may split? WU models are still showing two systems.

[yield 2 the right]

link please....

[CindyDawg]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

[CJ Wolf]

Oh my, that is interesting. Looks like they will join not split. Perfect storm 2?

[NautiNurse]

Here's hoping that we get through the next half of this media much anticipated 'above average' season with equal excitement. I think the key is to spend on harding your home and then nothing happens ....

I would be perfectly happy never needing to try out those hurricane screens I bought last year.

[lightman]

Now that the storm has “birthed” and has a name I’m glad to see that the Mods are letting this thread stay in news.

[dr_lew]

Looking at the current satellite loop, which ends with a frame at SEP 8 07 3:45 UTC, it seems to have suddenly evaporated starting at 2:45 UTC. You can see circulation, but the convection suddenly disappeared.

I honestly believe that you cannot overlook the political dimension in all this. Well, I’ve got to admit I’m always a pooh-pooher until something turns into a monster, but Geez ...

[NautiNurse]

There were four FR threads posted about this system today prior to Gabrielle gaining a name this evening. The media has been salivating over this system for a week already. It seems there is a bit of storm infatuation left over from Katrina.

There is also a rather organized movement to discredit the NHC and to privatize the NWS. They are caught between the old rock and a hard place. Five years ago, this system would not rate a blip in the news. Now a cluster of thunderstorms has everyone tuned in for death and destruction.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

Hopefully, the storm will smack into D.C. and give the politicians a taste of their own medicine.

[gondramB]

Does anybody have a link for the Stork Tracker software from NOAA. I’m on Tybee Island hoping to storm watch and would like software to play with instead of just web pages

[RDTF]

Thank you!

[RDTF]

Thank you!