Probably won't even get cloudy here in New Jersey.
Posted on 09/07/2007 8:02:09 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Still not much going on around here.
Local Weather on the storm
http://www.wral.com/weather/story/1787118/
Appears to be wishing for the rain more than they are worried about the storm.
bump
All the reports have the storm continuing to move WNW at a slow pace through today but the forecast maps all show the storm track moving NW.
Thats not much wiggle room for a glancing hit on the outer banks VS a smack on the southern (my area) beaches.
Bet they wish they had Buoy 41002 replaced by now.
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 08, 2007
The satellite presentation of Gabrielle has improved early this morning. A curved convective band is now located closer to the center of circulation over the northern and western quadrants... which could be an indication that Gabrielle is gradually acquiring tropical characteristics. Dvorak intensity classifications are T 2.5/35 kt from SAB and St 2.5/35-40 kt from TAFB. Based on this... Gabrielle will remain a subtropical 40 kt storm for this advisory. While the cyclone is currently over warm waters...the upper level environment is not favorable for significant strengthening. Therefore...only slight strengthening is indicated as Gabrielle approaches the coast. This is consistent with a blend of the SHIPS...GFDL...and hwrf intensity guidance. The initial motion is 300/10. Gabrielle is situated between an upper-level low to its southwest and a deep-layer ridge over the northwestern Atlantic. As the upper-level low moves westward and weakens...Gabrielle will be steered around the western periphery of the ridge toward the coast of north and South Carolina in the next day or two. Thereafter...Gabrielle is expected to be embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow resulting in an acceleration toward the northeast. By days 4 and 5 Gabrielle should be an extratropical cyclone...moving away from the United States. The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus and is not significantly different from the previous advisory. Tropical storm warnings will likely be required later today for a portion of the tropical storm watch area. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 08/0900z 30.9n 73.5w 40 kt 12hr VT 08/1800z 31.8n 74.9w 45 kt 24hr VT 09/0600z 33.1n 76.2w 50 kt...tropical 36hr VT 09/1800z 34.5n 76.6w 55 kt 48hr VT 10/0600z 36.0n 75.5w 55 kt 72hr VT 11/0600z 38.5n 71.0w 50 kt 96hr VT 12/0600z 41.0n 62.0w 45 kt...extratropical 120hr VT 13/0600z 45.0n 50.0w 45 kt...extratropical $$ forecaster Mainelli/Avila
Very true. We wouldn't have a name for this yet.
Thanks for the thread and ping
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on September 08, 2007
...Gabrielle continues west-northwestward toward the Carolinas... A tropical storm watch remains in effect for portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coast from Edisto Beach northward to Oregon Inlet...including the Pamlico Sound. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for a portion of the tropical storm watch area later today. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 800 am AST...1200z...the center of subtropical storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 31.2 north...longitude 73.8 west or about 280 miles...450 km...south-southeast of Cape Lookout North Carolina. The storm is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is expected as Gabrielle acquires more tropical characteristics. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km to the north of the center. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches. Gabrielle is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across coastal sections of North Carolina...with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. Repeating the 800 am AST position...31.2 N...73.8 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1100 am AST. $$ Forecaster Knabb
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2006atlan.shtml
They only had nine storms and had to go back and dig one up to make an even 10 for the year.
If they had a storm and nobody noticed should we even call it a storm?
Come on in little rainmaker, we’ll give you a good Southern welcome!
Blergh, too much recurve. We need it to come further in to get the rain.
It should just be a rainmaker, but please don’t wish hurricanes on those of us in the DC area just because politicians sometimes reside here!
Buoy 41001, 150 miles east of Cape Hatteras is reporting 79.9 deg water temps. Frying Pan Shoals has 81.3 deg.
The water Felix was churning through was more like 85 deg.
Thanks.
Probably won't even get cloudy here in New Jersey.
Here in Raeford, we need the rain desperately. I don’t wish my coastal neighbors any inclement weather at all, but I certainly wish this would be a rainmaker here.
Busy, but been watching the GOM. Looks like something spinning up, halfway between FLA and the Yucatan on IR, two, three days now.
WNW off the tip of Cuba.
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/latest_eastwv.jpg
Anyone else watching this?
The folks at the NHC don’t seem to be concerned. It isn’t part of this morning’s Tropical Weather Outlook, though they’re looking at something off Cape Verde.
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