Posted on 09/07/2007 8:02:09 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Real easy to spot where the little one plays with her slip-n-slide. Thats the only place the yard is green.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/081147.shtml
Storm update. Next one around 1100.
The overnight morphology would allow that.
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 08, 2007
...Gabrielle continues northwestward toward North Carolina...
...Tropical storm warnings issued...
at 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning is issued from
Surf City North Carolina northward to the North Carolina/Virginia
border...including the Pamlico and albermarle sounds. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
At 11 am EDT...a tropical storm watch is issued for portions of
southern Virginia from north of the North Carolina/Virginia border
northward to Cape Charles Light on the Atlantic coast and to New
Point Comfort along Chesapeake Bay.
At 11 am EDT...the tropical storm watch south of Cape Fear has been
discontinued.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for a portion of the coast
of North Carolina from south of Surf City southward to Cape Fear.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of subtropical storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 31.5 north...longitude 74.2 west or about
255 miles...410 km...southeast of Cape Lookout North Carolina.
Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr. A
continued northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward
speed is expected during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours as
Gabrielle acquires more tropical characteristics.
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km to the north
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 3 feet is possible within the
warning area as Gabrielle passes near or over the coast.
Gabrielle is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2
to 4 inches across coastal sections of North Carolina...with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.
Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...31.5 N...74.2 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
seeing my name in a headline is not a fun way to start the day :(
Awwww...Gabrielle is a pussycat.
Long Island on Wednesday morning could be perfect - overhead lines with off-shore winds. It’s a bit early to predict but all the elements are there.
LOL!!!!
Well at least this is good news
At 11 am EDT...the tropical storm watch south of Cape Fear has been
discontinued
Still hoping for rain out of this critter.
STS Gabrielle is about 255 miles SE of Cape Lookout NC
moving NW @ 10 mph...
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Just don't post any cat pictures; the last one got mighty pissed.
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 08, 2007
Morning visible imagery reveals a fully exposed but well-defined low-level center of circulation. Deep convection...but with relatively warm cloud tops near -65c...remains confined north of the center and is most abundant in the northwestern quadrant with a distant and thinning band to the northeast. A Quikscat overpass at about 1115z captured only the western half of the circulation...but did indicate some believable 40 kt retrievals between about 60 and 90 nmi from the center...so the advisory intensity remains 40 kt. Even though the convection is becoming more persistent near the center...the status remains subtropical given that the radius of maximum winds remains large. A ship with call sign ddsb2 recently reported winds of 33 kt and a pressure of 1011 mb about 20 nmi northwest of the center...so the central pressure is lowered slightly to 1009 mb. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Gabrielle this afternoon to help us get a more thorough look at the wind field. The center of Gabrielle is moving just slightly to the right of the previous official track...and the initial motion estimate is 305/9...which is also a tad slower than before. The storm continues to be steered by the ridge to its northeast...and the forecast scenario remains that Gabrielle will rotate around the western periphery of this ridge and into the midlatitude westerlies during the next 2-3 days. The latest model guidance has generally shifted slightly to the right...and especially given the initial motion...so has the official forecast. The new track is close to a blend of the hwrf...GFDL...and GFS and shows landfall along the Outer Banks in about 36 hours. The spread in the models is sufficiently large...however...that a landfall farther east or no landfall of the center at all are both possibilities. After passing near or over eastern North Carolina...Gabrielle should move fairly quickly back out to sea and become extratropical by day 4. A short window of opportunity exists for Gabrielle to strengthen before reaching North Carolina...since the current southeasterly wind shear is forecast by the global models to temporarily lessen tonight before increasing again tomorrow as the upper-level low to the southwest moves farther away. Given the limited extent of the convection currently...that change in environment is probably not enough to warrant a forecast of significant strengthening. The new official forecast is very similar to the previous advisory in bringing Gabrielle to 55 kt by 36 hours...in line with most of the objective guidance. Gradual weakening is forecast beyond 72 hours as extratropical transition occurs. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 08/1500z 31.5n 74.2w 40 kt 12hr VT 09/0000z 32.4n 75.3w 45 kt...tropical 24hr VT 09/1200z 33.8n 76.0w 50 kt 36hr VT 10/0000z 35.2n 75.6w 55 kt...near NC coast 48hr VT 10/1200z 36.4n 74.0w 55 kt 72hr VT 11/1200z 39.0n 68.0w 55 kt 96hr VT 12/1200z 44.0n 58.0w 50 kt...extratropical 120hr VT 13/1200z 46.0n 46.0w 45 kt...extratropical $$ forecaster Knabb
Gabriel Aubry
I could get used to that :)
He’s a Cat 5 that could blow in on me anyday.
Well I guess that leaves me out.........I can’t compete with her — but I can dream :)
Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on September 08, 2007
...Gabrielle continues northwestward toward North Carolina...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Surf City North Carolina
northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border...including the
Pamlico and Albemarle sounds. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for portions of southern
Virginia from north of the North Carolina/Virginia border northward
to Cape Charles Light on the Atlantic coast and to New Point
Comfort along Chesapeake Bay.
A tropical storm watch is also in effect for a portion of the coast
of North Carolina from south of Surf City southward to Cape Fear.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 200 PM AST...1800z...the center of subtropical storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 31.8 north...longitude 74.1 west or about
240 miles...385 km...southeast of Cape Lookout North Carolina.
The center of Gabrielle has been moving erratically during the past
few hours but is moving generally toward the northwest near 9
mph...14 km/hr. A continued northwestward motion with a slight
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On
this track...the center of Gabrielle will near the coast of North
Carolina tomorrow...but outer rain bands will likely reach the
coast tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours as
Gabrielle acquires more tropical characteristics.
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km to the north
from the center.
The minimum central pressure based on reports from an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 3 feet is possible within the
warning area as Gabrielle passes near or over the coast.
Gabrielle is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2
to 4 inches across coastal sections of North Carolina...with
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.
Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...31.8 N...74.1 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
BUMP
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