Posted on 09/10/2007 6:25:04 AM PDT by Brilliant
Friday's report that the economy lost jobs in August for the first time in four years sent Wall Street reeling, and some are calling it a harbinger of recession. We think that's far from inevitable, however, if the financial classes keep their wits and Democrats on Capitol Hill rethink their antigrowth agenda.
The jobs decline of 4,000 was rooted in the continuing housing bust. Big losses came in construction and manufacturing areas related to housing. The rest of the private economy added jobs, though not enough to offset a decline in government payrolls...
The politicians also have a role to play here, especially the newly dominant Democrats. New York's Chuck Schumer wasted no time Friday calling the jobs report "a punch to the gut of our economy," but his own party is preparing to deliver more blows. Any hint of a growth agenda has vanished since Democrats took Congress...
Democrats have proposed or discussed raising taxes on cigarettes, oil and gas companies, hedge funds, private equity, capital gains, dividends, the U.S. subsidiaries of foreign companies, and individuals earning more than $500,000 a year (which includes millions of small businesses...). Add the promise of every Democratic Presidential candidate to repeal the Bush tax cuts if he or she wins in 2008, and no wonder investors are growing more cautious...
Congress and the White House should if anything be talking about another tax cut...
Imagine if the economy began to sour nine months after the GOP took Congress and Bill Clinton were still President. Do you think he'd be sitting quietly as Tom DeLay blamed Democrats...? The resilient U.S. economy may well ride out the current housing woes without a recession, but it's far more likely to do so if someone starts pushing back against job- and investment-killing policies.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.
If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.
The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to the Secretary of the Treasury Albert Gallatin (1802)
That’s been the standard rebuttal to housing woes — “but look at the low unemployment, look at the jobs created”, blah blah. We’ll see how long they keep singing that song.
And the Wall St. types keep giving money to Democrats....
go figure. Once the Dems have total control you can expect tax increases, roll backs, more socialism and economic contraction. Someone ought to explain to these morons that bad economies means less money for Main St. to invest much less spend so say good bye to the fat bonuses the traders and investment house people have been collecting.
The Bush tax cuts are going to expire. If you have any capitol gains to cash in, do it before the end of 08.
Their stupid agenda which focuses on imaginary issues like global warming has let them ignore reform proposals for Freddie and Fannioe and FHA, and that caused a credit crunch. They are completely irresponsible.
Exactly, where are the statesmen and women?
First of all, a single month statistic - particularly when it is such an infinitesimal fraction of the primary statistic - is virtually meaningless. This figure will be revised at least twice before being considered final, and in any case it is an artificial number - adjusted for seasonal variations at the very least, and probably much more.
It MIGHT be worthy of notice only if, in retrospect, (a) it holds up after the revisions are included, and (b) it ACTUALLY marks the beginning of a trend, confirmed by later statistics.
Back when I was young, a very new father, and an apartment dweller, I happened to live in an apartment that was selected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for a weekly survey of hours worked. But they only asked for hours worked, not including vacation and paid personal time off, neither of which had any effect on the economy.
Consumer spending has been shook up for the entire year. I’m sitting with a pile of primary source data reflecting regional spending and can tell you that at household income levels below the $75-85k threshhold, folks are pulling back in a fairly substantial way from travel, vacations, driving trips and “treats.” A lot of what I see is near daily volatility in consumer spending that reflects gas price fluctuations and news story hits.
Personally, based on this, I have to wonder if our “slowdown” isn’t in part due to an extended presidential campaign season and a self-fulfilling prophecy of “women, children and families hardest hit” campaigning. Consumers are spooked a bit by the media, stung a bit by a real housing market slowdown, and pinched by energy increases and property tax hikes. No one thing is enough to bring on a recession, but the cumulative effective has a good portion of the population concerned.
At least IMO, a recession is already here - the only question is how long will it last. Meanwhile, the Dems ramble on about Iraq and global warming while consumers/voters are more focused on homefront issues.
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