Ping!
The problem for Rudy in Florida is that his “firewall” there is made out of chicken wire. Florida is a closed primary. In other words, only registered Republicans can vote in it. Thus, the fact that he is doing well vis a vis other Republicans in southern Florida with New York transplants will do him no good in the Primary (or, for that matter, in the general election, since the transplnteed New Yorkers break at least 5-1 for the Democrat)
I suspect that Some of the polls showing Rudy with a lead in Florida are achieving this result by sampling an equal number of Republican leaning voters in every region, which would overstate Rudy’s strength, since most of the Republican voters are in the panhandle (from Pensacala over to Jacksonville and around Orlando, which are very socially conservative regions). Fred will bury Rudy in those areas, and the few Republican votes he picks up in Miami Dade and Broward (in the south) will not come close to making up that deficit.
Of course, you will not hear this from the so-called pundits at NRO and Amspec who know nothing about Republican primary politics and much, much less about Republican primary politics in the South. Boy, are they in for a surprise!