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War, Psychology and Time
StratFor ^ | September 11, 2007 | George Friedman

Posted on 09/14/2007 7:52:32 AM PDT by uxbridge

There are moments in history when everything comes together. Today is the sixth anniversary of the al Qaeda attack against the United States. This is the week Gen. David Petraeus is reporting to Congress on the status of the war in Iraq. It also is the week Osama bin Laden made one of his rare video appearances. The world will not change this week, but the convergence of these strands makes it necessary to pause and take stock.

To do this, we must begin at the beginning. We do not mean Sept. 11, 2001, but the moment when bin Laden decided to stage the attack -- and the reasoning behind it. By understanding his motives, we can begin to measure his success. His motive was not, we believe, simply to kill Americans. That was a means to an end. Rather, as we and others have said before, it was to seize what he saw as a rare opportunity to begin the process of recreating a vast Islamic empire.

The rare opportunity was the fall of the Soviet Union. Until then, the Islamic world had been divided between Soviet and American spheres of influence. Indeed, the border of the Soviet Union ran through the Islamic world. The Cold War between the United States and Soviet Union created a tense paralysis in that world, with movement and change being measured in decades and inches. Suddenly, everything that was once certain became uncertain. One half of the power equation was gone, and the other half, the United States, was at a loss as to what it meant. Bin Laden looked at the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan and saw a historical opening.

(Excerpt) Read more at stratfor.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: alqaeda; iraq; patraeus; sixthanniversary

1 posted on 09/14/2007 7:52:32 AM PDT by uxbridge
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To: uxbridge

login required, blocked at bugmenot .. oh, well


2 posted on 09/14/2007 7:58:14 AM PDT by tx_eggman (ManBearPig '08)
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To: uxbridge
but the convergence of these strands makes it necessary to pause and take stock.

This is the week when it becomes obvious that action and not talk is working in Iraq and talk and no action is not working in Iran.

3 posted on 09/14/2007 8:05:12 AM PDT by mjp (Live & let live. I don't want to live in Mexico, Marxico, or Muslimico. Statism & high taxes suck.)
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To: tx_eggman
Link to the full article

War, Psychology & Time

4 posted on 09/14/2007 8:09:41 AM PDT by uxbridge
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To: uxbridge

The authors problem is his failure to understand:

(1)regardless of his (Osama) position, vis-a-vis Al Queda, neither he nor Al Queda “lead” the Islamic fundamentalist movement to create a Muslim Caliphate around the world;

(2)that Islamic fundamentalist movement created Al Qeuda, but not only Al Qeuda but founded every Islamic fundamentalist or terrorist organization in the world, from Palestinian terrorists and all others;

(3)getting “osama”, getting “Al Qeuda” will not end terrorism from the Islamic fundamentalist movement, if it has to it will create a brand new Al Queda.

Until the Saudi’s export of Wahabi-Islam is blocked, not only in the west but outside of Saudi Arabia, and until some western-looking (democracy) moderates come to power in Saudi Arabia, royal or otherwise the Wahabi clerics will continue to create the mush-for-brains sheeple willing to find, or build an “Al Queda”, Saudi money will continue to fund it and organizations in the west built by the Muslim Brotherhood and funded by Saudi money will continue to advance the appeasement of the Muslim agenda in the west.

The intense focus on Osama and Al Queda is a great diversion. We are in a war of civilizations and Osama and Al Queda are not “leading” our opponents, they are but one (and only one) visible portion of a military component of our enemy’s arsenal, which has much more massively extensive “non-military” operations, more so in the west than anywhere else (subversion and appeasement) than the little group of Al Queda.


5 posted on 09/14/2007 8:37:06 AM PDT by Wuli
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To: Wuli
""getting “osama”, getting “Al Qeuda” will not end terrorism from the Islamic fundamentalist movement, if it has to it will create a brand new Al Queda."

And you base these "predictions" of yours on what exactly?

When Osama dies Al Qaeda dies - simple as that.

There won't be another "Al Qaeda" in our lifetimes but the movement he started will continue - as it is now in groups like Hizb ut-Tahrir

An American Expat in Southeast Asia

6 posted on 09/15/2007 1:43:50 AM PDT by expatguy (Support Conservative Blogging - "An American Expat in Southeast Asia")
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To: expatguy

“And you base these “predictions” of yours on what exactly?”

Al Queda is not THE ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST MOVEMENT, it is a creation of that movement and if the west were to find all the “Al Queda” members THE MOVEMENT would have already been six steps ahead in creating a “new” Al Queda, under another name and with a new “network”. In truth, there are already links and paths that criss-cross between Al Queda and every Islamic terrorist movement.

Saudi money provides the funds, Sunni-Wahabi clerics provide the religious approval and the Muslim Brotherhood provides the philosophical justification, political foundation and operational model and leadership FOR ALL ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST AND TERRORIST MOVEMENTS (the unholy trinity), outside of Hezbolla, which (amazing only to westerners) is distinguished only by its source of funds and source of religious approval (Iran) but still has its philosophical base from leaders also supplied by the Muslim Brotherhood. If “Al Queda” were to “die”, they will raise a new one, if they haven’t already.


7 posted on 09/15/2007 5:46:40 PM PDT by Wuli
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