[Jim Noble]

they'd ignite their conservative base to become so motivated to turn out the polls, and overwhelming victory

The "conservative base" is less than 30% of the electorate, perhaps less than 25%.

Actions which "ignite" them make winning the remaining votes to get to 51% less likely.

[jrooney]

As many as 52% of voters say they will not vote for Hillary. Evidently Newt left his calculator in Congress when he was forced out because you can’t win the presidency with high negative numbers like that.

[Proud2BAmerican]

I'm not sure that's an accurate estimation. On the issue of abortion, for example, I believe I recall reading that estimates of support/opposition to abortion depend on who's doing the polling --- pro-life groups cite majority opposition to abortion; other groups cite majority support of pro-choice.

Let's say it's 50/50 (personally, I think there's a silent majority that oppose abortion) -- well, then if you put up a candidate who's unapologetically pro-life, as well as other qualities that put him solidly in the conservative camp, you'd find the 'base' is going to flock to the polls to pull the levers.