Posted on 09/19/2007 11:20:14 AM PDT by ventanax5
In other words, the Russians will want the United States to get out of the former Soviet Union — and stay out. Alternatively, the Russians are prepared, on Oct. 16, to reach agreements on nuclear exchange and weapons transfers that will include weapons that the Iranians can easily send into Iraq to kill U.S. troops. Should the United States initiate an air campaign prior to any of this taking effect, the Russians will increase the supply of weapons to Iran dramatically, using means it used effectively in Vietnam: shipping them in. If the United States strikes against Russian ships, the Russians will then be free to strike directly against Georgia or the Baltic states, countries that cannot defend themselves without American support, and countries that the United States is in no position to support.
Or the United States can quietly give Putin the sphere of influence he wants, letting down allies in the former Soviet Union, in return for which the Russians will let the Iranians stand alone against the Americans, not give arms to Middle Eastern countries, not ship Iran weapons that will wind up with militias in Iraq. In effect, Putin is giving the United States a month to let him know what it has in mind.
(Excerpt) Read more at stratfor.com ...
United States a month to let him know what it has in mind.
Bomb the $hit out of all of them now.
To quote Major General Anthony McAuliffe at the Battle of the Bulge: “Nuts!”
We need to tell Russia and Iran to do what they will. They know where we stand on these issues. Don’t threaten us. If Iran strikes our troops in Iraq, level them. Enough of this crap. We don’t need to support Georgia or the Baltics. That is in the European continent and should be left to the Europeans.
The U.S. has a third option.
Tell the Russians to go to hell.
Move 75% of U.S. forces to the Kurdish region of Iraq, bring 25% home.
Watch as the Iranians move in to Basra and head to Baghdad, while the Saudis and Gulf states start to build (hire) actual armies and very quickly are ramping up support for Al Queda and Sunni militias in Iraq as well. Let Iran get “bogged down” with a Saudi-Iran confrontation building.
Meanwhile, the Kurdish area will become the refuge for peaceful Sunnis and Shias fleeing the carnage (which we will not intervene in below the border of the Kurdish area).
At the appropriate time, rested and strengthened, we will not take Iran from the south, but from the east, as the Kurds keep their southern border secure.
August 17th - On Friday, Mr. Putin will join leaders of China and other members of the six-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Russia's Chelyabinsk region to view the final stage of the group's most ambitious joint military maneuvers yet, to include 6,500 troops and over 100 aircraft. Also on hand will be leaders of SCO observer states and prospective members, among them India, Pakistan, Iran, and Mongolia.
"The SCO clearly wants the US to leave Central Asia; that's a basic political demand," says Ivan Safranchuk, Moscow director of the independent World Security Institute. "That's one reason why the SCO is holding military exercises, to demonstrate its capability to take responsibility for stability in Central Asia after the US leaves."
Heading for Ezekiel's War?
WRONG, that kind of thinking died 66 years ago. We have allies that deserve our support. Not that we plan to infringe on Russian sovereignty. However, the Soviet Union is dead as it should be, and Putin should not have a free hand to reconstitute it.
The article states that Russia is more than happy to have us bogged down and will supply weapons to see that it happens. The article also makes it clear that the Russians want to regain their sphere of influence over the former Soviet Union, evidently by military means if possible. Ok, so why then couldn’t we supply weapons etc. to those former Soviet States and bog down Russia’s attempts to regain its sphere of influence?
It seems to me that heretofore Russia has gotten away with causing trouble without consequences. Could you imagine, for example, if we had supported and supplied the Chechens? It would have been a nightmare for the Russians. Of course, it was not a desirable thing for us to support the Chechens. But now the Russians seem to be back to “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” line of thinking as evidenced by their willingness to support Iran. I hate to say it, but the Russians are leaving us with no choice but to revert to Cold War tactics and choose some undesirable allies to counter Russian.
We should start given massive support including weapons to Iranian opposition. Announce closure of bases in Germany and reassignment to new bases in Poland. Reach agreement on large weapon sales to Georgia, Poland, Chechs, and the Baltic states. Move forward with Missile defense in eastern Europe. Increase sub patrols near Russian waters, let it be known that subs are carrying nukes. Hold War games with eastern Nato countries in Eastern Europe. Near end of 08 remove troops from Iraq by way of Iran.
If there is any truth to the article we will regret showing any weakness. We need to let Russia know they lost one Cold war, and they can lose another one.
Excellent plan.
NordP
Important point you made.
“The article also makes it clear that the Russians want to regain their sphere of influence over the former Soviet Union, evidently by military means if possible. Ok, so why then couldn’t we supply weapons etc. to those former Soviet States and bog down Russia’s attempts to regain its sphere of influence?”
We can, and doing so will (is) also counter(ing) Iran in Central Asia at the same time.
I say let Putin and Iran cooperate, fully. If the Shias and Sunnis around Baghdad cannot get it together, put 75% of our troops in the Kurdish area and the rest in Afghanistan.
Let the Mullahs run all the way down to Basra and Baghdad and watch the Saudi-Sunni vs Iran-Shia war develop.
At the appropriate time, rested and strengthened, we will take Iran from the east and the west, not the south. As we do, the Kurds and the hired-help of the Saudis (they will not [cannot] fight themselves) will expell her Iraqi invasion.
It would be foolish to trust a hungry bear. Besides, there is always China and they would be more then happy to supply Iran arms in exchange for oil.
Russia is behaving the way the old Russian empire did, which isn’t good for the US.
They will not tolerate a US presence on their borders for long, and sadly I fear we will abandon eastern Europe once again.
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