Posted on 09/19/2007 8:26:29 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Help, what am I looking at here??
Buoy #42003 in the Eastern GOM. Impressive pressure dive, with simultaneous increased winds. aka Stormy Weather...
OS, Ok,Ready for it.
Well in Ocala we have a couple of good gusts, and a nice steady rain, may finish off the drought without a hurricane. The high today was in the low 70’s — nice break from the summer heat.
Heh heh, I’m one of the few people on the planet who is *happy* with crude oil prices right now and who doesn’t care a bit about gasoline prices.
That looks like where our rain came from yesterday.....
in NORFOLK!!!!
Tropical Concerns in the Eastern GulfAn area of low pressure moving from the Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico will be closely monitored for development over the next 24 hours. This system began primarily as an upper-level disturbance and elongated trough, but surface pressures have been lowering. The center of the system is located just south of Tampa Bay, with a surface pressure of 1007 mb or 29.74 inches. Upper-level wind shear is currently light over the eastern Gulf and the Tampa radar already shows convection wrapping around the southern part of the circulation. This suggests that the system is already becoming more organized.
With wind shear forecast to remain relatively light and very warm water temperatures over the Gulf, it appears likely that a tropical depression will form at some point in the next 12 to 24 hours. Steering currents are still fairly weak, with the system squeezed between upper-level ridging over the south-central U.S., and more ridging off the Southeast coast. Most global forecast models suggest that the low will move in a northwesterly direction, impacting the central Gulf Coast somewhere between Apalachicola and New Orleans late Friday or early Saturday. However, this system will continue to pose a threat for heavy rain across the Florida Gulf Coast, well before the circulation moves ashore. Rain and gusty winds will likely expand toward the Alabama, Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana coastlines.
It should be noted that at least one forecast model does keep this low over water for a longer period of time. Vertical wind shear in the Gulf will likely become more hostile this weekend, but if the system tracks farther west, areas from New Orleans on westward will need to watch the progress of this storm system more carefully.
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, we have tropical waves located along 35 west, 60 west and over the Yucatan Peninsula. There are no signs of development with these systems, and no tropical strengthening is forecast over the next 24 to 48 hours. However, a piece of the wave over the northwestern Caribbean could get drawn northward over the weekend, at the very least enhancing rainfall toward the lower Mississippi Valley.
by AccuWeather Meteorologist Bob Tarr
Bout time- so glad to see this gray, gloomy weather pass- we had it sitting on top of us for 2 days. The sun is coming out this morning!!
Will be interesting to see what it does now..
Hopefully it won't take on tropical characteristics before coming back into land. The LBAR and BAMM 2 am runs have this thing skirting the coast today and tomorrow before coming in around Mobile Friday night/Saturday morning. GFDL has a run further south before it swings into Mobile Saturday. GFS has a hard swing south staring at Tampa before it comes across about Biloxi on Saturday.
Interesting side note; outside the GFS and the old NOGAPS, its reminants will be in my neck of the woods about Tuesday.
I’ve got incoming weather this w/e. Thanks, Clive.
What timing for the National Geographic Channel to rerun “Explorer: The True Face of Hurricanes”. That’s at 10 am Eastern.
The air here was crystal clear an hour ago, now very overcast--and dead calm.
Was watching the WX channel at the top of the hour and “Hurricane Jim” Cantore was doing his usual dance trying to gin up a storm. The water vapor loops shows a big chunk of dry air curling in toward the center of the suface low off Naples.
Prayers for our Gulf State friends. I know Texas doesn’t need anymore rain, how are the reast of y’all doing?
Yep--and that dry air has been pulled in since last night. From everything I've read, it's a crap shoot at this point if, when, and where this system will develop. The heavy convection that pummeled the JAX area yesterday didn't follow the system across the state. We'll know soon enough if the circulation out my back door heats up into anything substantial.
Saw a video clip with Accuweather's JB yesterday. He was assuring us he isn't trying to hype storms.
Very calm weather here. It’s wait and see at this point.
Why he wasn't struck by lightning after saying that, I'll never know.
The whole S/E can use the rain.
Whatever this thing is, it’s moving W at 10 mph. Recon is scheduled to fly at 12:30PM EDT.
Recent Satellite loops and the Tampa Bay long range radar show that this non-tropical low pressure system is beginning to get more organized and is acquiring tropical characteristics. Substantial pressure falls are occurring at the surface underneath the upper level low, and this system is on its way to becoming a subtropical depression.A surface low pressure system vertically aligned with a cold-cored upper level low will usually take two or more days to make the transition to a warm-cored tropical storm. Rapid intensification cannot occur until the system is fully warm-core. Since landfall is expected Saturday between the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Louisiana, 93L probably does not have time to become fully tropical. If 93L makes landfall Saturday, it should not have winds stronger than about 55 mph. The GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS intensity models all keep 93L's winds below 55 mph.
If the storm spends an extra day over water and makes it to Texas, as the ECMWF model predicts, 93L could become fully tropical and make landfall as a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds. However, there is plenty of dry air in the environment, and I don't think the storm will be able to intensify to a strong tropical storm. The primary threat from 93L will be heavy rain, and the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas border can expect a soaking from this system.
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