should monitor the progress of this weather disturbance.
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Well its dumped about 10 inches of rain in Jacksonville over last few days, and it is not tropical yet.I guess this will be Jerry.
Watching. (Bump)
bump
Tropical Concerns in the Eastern GulfAn area of low pressure moving from the Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico will be closely monitored for development over the next 24 hours. This system began primarily as an upper-level disturbance and elongated trough, but surface pressures have been lowering. The center of the system is located just south of Tampa Bay, with a surface pressure of 1007 mb or 29.74 inches. Upper-level wind shear is currently light over the eastern Gulf and the Tampa radar already shows convection wrapping around the southern part of the circulation. This suggests that the system is already becoming more organized.
With wind shear forecast to remain relatively light and very warm water temperatures over the Gulf, it appears likely that a tropical depression will form at some point in the next 12 to 24 hours. Steering currents are still fairly weak, with the system squeezed between upper-level ridging over the south-central U.S., and more ridging off the Southeast coast. Most global forecast models suggest that the low will move in a northwesterly direction, impacting the central Gulf Coast somewhere between Apalachicola and New Orleans late Friday or early Saturday. However, this system will continue to pose a threat for heavy rain across the Florida Gulf Coast, well before the circulation moves ashore. Rain and gusty winds will likely expand toward the Alabama, Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana coastlines.
It should be noted that at least one forecast model does keep this low over water for a longer period of time. Vertical wind shear in the Gulf will likely become more hostile this weekend, but if the system tracks farther west, areas from New Orleans on westward will need to watch the progress of this storm system more carefully.
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, we have tropical waves located along 35 west, 60 west and over the Yucatan Peninsula. There are no signs of development with these systems, and no tropical strengthening is forecast over the next 24 to 48 hours. However, a piece of the wave over the northwestern Caribbean could get drawn northward over the weekend, at the very least enhancing rainfall toward the lower Mississippi Valley.
by AccuWeather Meteorologist Bob Tarr
Hopefully it won't take on tropical characteristics before coming back into land. The LBAR and BAMM 2 am runs have this thing skirting the coast today and tomorrow before coming in around Mobile Friday night/Saturday morning. GFDL has a run further south before it swings into Mobile Saturday. GFS has a hard swing south staring at Tampa before it comes across about Biloxi on Saturday.
Interesting side note; outside the GFS and the old NOGAPS, its reminants will be in my neck of the woods about Tuesday.
What timing for the National Geographic Channel to rerun “Explorer: The True Face of Hurricanes”. That’s at 10 am Eastern.
Did this sucker slow down? I haven't been paying much attention. Looks like she's trying to tighten up too.
This storm has been hanging onto the Gulf coast for two days now, like a kid on the monkey bars in the playground; unless it finds some clear water by moving dead west or a bit south, it will be a big stretch to baptize Little Jerry.
