No. The polls are wrong about Rudy, because they are based on a false premise. If Rudy is the republican nominee, it will not be a one on one race. There is no way the American electorate is going to swallow 2 socially liberal New Yorkers as their choice. There will be a socially conservative third party that will split the Republican vote and deliver the White House to Hillary Clinton. It is her only sure path to victory.
You say that Reagan faced an enormously unpopular President. Hillary’s negatives are close to or above 50%. Is that what you would call “popular”?
As far as the polls being right, most of them showed a dead heat right up until election day. They were not wrong. Carter’s internal polls the weekend before the election showed the bottom had dropped out, but the MSM polls did not reflect this. Harris had the widest lead, I believe, which was Reagan ahead by 5 but within the MOE. The rest were dead even and one even had Carter up by a point or 2. None of them predicted the Blowout that occurred.
Polls before the 2006 congressional elections kept telling us that the Republicans were going to lose (or at least pretty close) yet there were many here who refused to believe them. In 2004 we knew it would be close, yet some here refused to believe that Kerry could attract a "mainstream" following. So I think we should look at trends, across the boards, and if we must look at polls this early, average them out.
Fred has come on strong in the past few weeks, and at this point I see a two way race with him and Rudy. I think it may go back and forth for months, until the primaries begin. With the way the primaries will be scheduled this time around it is anybodies guess on who comes out on top.
Now, for just a moment I would ask for you to take off your "Fred colored glasses", and tell me which States that you think Fred could win that President Bush lost in the past election? I really think that Ohio is turning on us, and if Richardson would be named the VP choice (which I think is a very strong possibility) New Mexico, and maybe a few other Western states are gone also. So where is Freds strength in the electoral votes? Will he be seen as the new strong leader, ie... a change that voters are looking for, or will he be seen as same old, same old southern white guy President.
Please explain how Fred mania sweeps the Country like Reagan did. Remember in the end Reagan was against Carter, and the people wanted a change. The wanted a change to the economy, they wanted a change to the enabler mentality of foreign security, they just plain wanted a change. If the voters feel the same way this time, their idea of a change will not be Fred.
Actually, it's quite possible for the 3rd party conservative candidate to win. In the 1970 NY Senate race, Conservative Party candidate James Buckley beat both the RINO and the Rat.
Liberals will not vote for Rudy, because they hate his pro-war stand and his authoritarian views. Obviously conservatives aren't going to vote for him because of his social liberalism. Rudy would come in a dismal 3rd and the conservative candidate will edge out Hillary in the election.