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Posted on 10/01/2007 1:06:41 PM PDT by Yo-Yo
It is honours even between Airbus and Boeing after round one of British Airways' long-haul fleet-renewal evaluation, with the airline deciding to split the deal between the two airframers. However, despite losing out to the rival 787 at the small end, Airbus will feel relieved that the UK flag carrier has finally endorsed the A380 after a decade-long courtship.
BA has placed orders and options for 19 A380s after what the airline's commercial director Robert Boyle told Flight International, flightglobal.com's sister publication, was a close-run battle with Boeing's smaller, but "less risky" alternative, the 747-8. "It was a hard call for us right up until the end," he says.
Boeing's prize was a deal for up to 42 787-8s and -9s and the two new types - all of which are Roll-Royce-powered - will replace 20 of the airline's 57 747-400s and 14 of its 21 767-300ERs.
The rival manufacturers now have around a year to convince BA that they have the superior offering in the 300- to 350-seat "big twin" class as BA has deferred the decision on replacement of the remainder of its 747-400 fleet to early 2009 (see box).
The A380 eventually won the day despite Boeing's perceived advantage as the incumbent supplier, says Boyle. "Undoubtedly the A380 is a more complex aircraft for us to introduce than the 747-8 would have been, and a higher risk as it's a bigger aircraft."
But Boyle says that the "numbers" ultimately came out in favour of Airbus, while its noise performance was "also a significant factor for us in the context of Heathrow expansion, as the A380 is QC [Quota Count] 0.5 on arrival at Heathrow versus QC1 for the 747-8".
He adds that other factors working for the A380 were "the benefits of the slot efficiency of the bigger aircraft", and the fact that its larger cabin size provides "more flexibility to innovate".
Teal Group analyst Richard Aboulafia believes the BA A380 deal was a must-win for Airbus, and the size of the order is yet more proof that the ultra-large airliner is aimed at "niche" market.
"It would have been disastrous [for Airbus] if BA hadn't ordered it," he says. "Why couldn't BA, operating from a congested international hub, put more than a dozen A380s into its fleet? This reinforces the argument that it is a niche aircraft."
As the world's biggest 747-400 operator, BA's decision to eliminate the new -8 variant from all its future plans is "a blow" for that programme, says Aboulafia, but that the programme could quickly be turned around: "At the moment it is just Lufthansa and a bunch of cargo airlines that have ordered it, but there are a few more opportunities, and an order from Cathay or Emirates could easily rectify the situation."
Likely destinations on BA's A380 network include Johannesburg, Hong Kong, Singapore, points in India and US West Coast cities Los Angeles and San Francisco, says the airline. Significantly New York does not figure in the plan for the moment.
BA was able to secure some early slots for 787 deliveries as the campaign to sell the aircraft began over a year ago, and it was this availability that gave Boeing an upper hand in the 767 replacement evaluation, says Boyle.
"The A350 wasn't available [until 2013] so Airbus proposed a blend of A330 interim aircraft bridging to A350s. This gave them a hurdle in terms of the efficiency of the A330 against the 787 and the transition costs of an interim aircraft, which they couldn't overcome."
Well, I wouldnt worry much about this bogus order. When the hammer comes down on their illegal subsidies...Airbus is basically decommissioned for its fraudulent “loans” then none of these planes get made.
Any bets that the A350-1000 will ever be built?
If there is one thing the British love its problematic wiring harnesses and the employment jumps in electricians to deal with them...
Well, if this actually happens then my company won’t be flying on BA.
See ya.
"It would have been disastrous [for Airbus] if BA hadn't ordered it," he says. "Why couldn't BA, operating from a congested international hub, put more than a dozen A380s into its fleet? This reinforces the argument that it is a niche aircraft."
Looks like they're only replacing the 12 to 19 of the oldest 747's with A380's out of 61 (57 + 4 used South African Airways) 747's. What about the other 42-49 747's. They seem to be targeting markets like Hong Kong and Los Angeles that only have limited takeoff and landing windows due to distance, time zones, and curfews at origin and destination airports. These markets often have multiple 747's scheduled within an hour of each other. Notice New York is definitely not on the list to get BA A380's. They have about 20 flights a day to and from New York, because passengers demand flexible schedules between those cities. It's not unlike the way Southwest has flights between Dallas and Houston every thirty minutes throughout the day.
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Like British Airways had any choice but to at least order some of these beasts... after all British tax money helped subsidize these contraptions.. no way the government would have let them get away without ordering at least some.
Had they tried Parlament would have shut down their subsidies etc.
Emirates is throwing around enough cash that the A350-1000 will get built. In fact, since it more directly competes with the 777-20LR, it is more logical to build than the smaller versions.
Emirates is also pressing Boeing to build the 787-10, but Boeing is still reluctant, although resistance is fading.
Mark my words: the A380 is going to be a bigger white elephant (with all the associated maintenance problems) than the C-5 ever was.
Because the ICAO has ruled that non-A380 trailing aircraft needs to have more separation from a landing A380 than from a landing 747-400.
| Preceding aircraft | Following aircraft | Minimum radar separation |
|---|---|---|
| A380-800 | A380-800 | 4 nm |
| Non-A380-800 Heavy | 6 nm | |
| Medium | 8 nm | |
| Light | 10 nm | |
| Heavy | Heavy | 4 nm |
| Medium | 5 nm | |
| Light | 6 nm | |
| Medium | Light | 5 nm |
So the increase in A380 passenger load just about offsets the reduced landing capacity, resulting in a net wash in passenger load vis-a-vis the 747-400.
This could change if Airbus is successful in getting the ICAO to rescind the "super heavy" designation of the A380 after it has been in service for a time.
British Airways have been a private company since 1987 and do not recieve govt subsidies. In 1994 they threatened to sue the EU for subsidising Air France and Olympic airways.
Or if you put it another way:
It makes sense that BA should buy some of the massive carriers. Its a boost for EU technological engineering and aviation, and what with all the partnerships involved in the contstruction of these huge machines, it makes us good allies in the defence industry across the EU.
Not that the Boeings are bad aircraft, but a fleet of mixed aircraft can cover more duties.
Hey -- they're used to it; can't be any worse than Lucas Electrics !!
Perhaps the fact that the 747-8 is only available with General Electric engines and not Rolls-Royce played a part in it. BA prefers Rolls whenever possible.
I think BA is “sticking it toes in the water” with 12 A380-800’s, waiting for fuel-burn data from actual A380 operations at Singapore Airlines and Qantas Airways over the next 18 months. If the fuel burn at standard mean takeoff weight (MTOW) meets what Airbus has achieved so far in A380 testing, BA could double the order to as many as 24 planes.
Three cheers for the Prince of Darkness, Joseph Lucas!
-ccm
That's where I learned about the real secret of electronics -- smoke.
When you lose the smoke, they quit working!
A Lucas three-position switch: FLICKER/SPARK/SMOKE
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