Posted on 10/04/2007 9:38:23 AM PDT by TitansAFC
If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and a third party campaign is backed by Christian conservative leaders, 27% of Republican voters say they’d vote for the third party option rather than Giuliani. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.
Over this past weekend, several Christian conservative leaders indicated they might back a pro-life, third-party, candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.
The latest poll highlights the potential challenges for Giuliani, but the numbers must be considered in context. A generic third-party candidate may attract 14% of the vote in the abstract at this time. However, if a specific candidate is chosen, that person would likely attract less support due to a variety of factors. Almost all third party candidates poll higher earlier in a campaign and their numbers diminish as election day approaches. Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote for Giuliani or help elect a Democrat.
The telephone survey found that 17% of Republicans believe it’s Very Likely conservative leaders would back a Pro-Life candidate if Giuliani is nominated. Another 32% believe it is Somewhat Likely. Among all voters, 22% think a third party approach is Very Likely and another 33% say it’s Somewhat Likely.
Most Republican voters consider themselves Pro-Life on the issue of Abortion. Most Democrats and Unaffiliated Voters are Pro-Choice.
The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.
With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. That’s down from 31% in a two-way race.
Among all voters, 49% say Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win a two-way match-up. That falls to 43% with a third party candidate in the mix.
Electability is a crucial issue for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters seen him as politically moderate or liberal. That is a challenge unto itself in a political party where most primary voters consider themselves politically conservative. Fred Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field.
Three of the last four Presidential elections have seen a candidate win with less than 50% of the total votes cast. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, there is a very reasonable possibility that neither major party candidate would top the 50% mark in Election 2008. With such a scenario, third party candidates on either side of the political spectrum could play a significant role by peeling away one or two percentage points of the vote.
Clinton is currently leading the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but her victory is not inevitable. Among Republicans, Thompson and Giuliani lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
I know its easier to live in a world of black and white than have to made a choice among less than perfect alternatives. Really I do. I prefer making the easy choices too.
In the bubble that is FR, a lot of folks don’t realize that exactly the same thing is going on over on the Dem side. We regard Hillary as a radical socialist, but (believe it or not) for many of them she’s way too conservative, pro-business, and pro-war. Yet, thus far, I haven’t heard any anti-war candidate talk seriously about mounting a third party challenge. They understand what is at stake. When we understand it, then we will deserve to win.
“I would rather put up with Hitlary for 4 years then rip the prolife plank out of the republican platform by electing Rino Rudy. IF he I nominated I am going thired party.”
Hydro, The spawn of Arlen Spector could be the nominee and the prolife plank will still remain. Split the Repub party and say goodbye to the 2nd Am., the military, maleness, and say hello to a further cultural infusion of homosexual acceptability, preferencial treatment, higher taxes, Jesse Jackson, the NEA, NOW, the acceleration of the feminization of our boys, Hollywood carte blanche...
What a biased comment!
Why not say, "Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote NOMINATE for Giuliani or AND help elect a Democrat."
We will get about the same with Rino Rudy.
abortion has and will kill many more Americans than terrorism has or will and thats alright with Giuliani.
The main question for the 2008 elections is whether or not the American people want to elect a socialist who will install a socialist government and implement socialist policies.
Proof there won’t be any third party candidate — Perot was a fluke and Bloomberg found no support. Bloomberg was Hillary Matters “Perot”, got to get the winning vote under 50% so a Democrat could win.
Of course not. I much prefer a Republican appointed Souter or Stevens like you apparently do. /s
Yes, its just you.
Reagan actually won in spite of REPUBLICAN John Anderson splitting the GOP. Peeling off all the liberal republican votes. Reagan won with conservatives. Republican and Democrat.
GWB won because Nader calved off enough of Gore's votes to make a difference in several key states.
LOL! Bogus. Try Buchanan's Independence Party and the other parties also again peeling votes from the GOP. W won in spite of that. With razor-thin margins in many middle states, winning or losing... the third parties cut both ways. Maybe not always equally, but your views are clearly revisionist and frankly devoid of merit. You must not have lived through the elections of the 70's and 80s and don't know what a struggle conservatism has had to gain ascendancy within the GOP...which has only been lost due to betrayal !
As for what you are imputing to me:
.exactly what you're planning on doing, in reverse, but neither do you see or are willing to admit it
Can't and won't admit what I am not DOING. I want a housecleaning of the GOP, to restore the Reagan Conservative majority...and oust every single CFR enemy of that coalition of nationalists.
I will not vote for Rudy whether there's a third party or not.
It's so close that he doesn't need to lose 14% of the vote to lose to Hillary. He needs to lose only about 2-3%. And he will lose that.
Look outside the box...... It will be Hillary if the GOP splits and votes on the pro-life issue as their main qualifier for who they pull the lever for.
I think the war on terror should be the main issue in the next election. If Hillary gets in, we may not survive as a nation.
Essentially correct, but I would replace that label "moderate" with the more accurate, LIBERAL. Bush was also definitely out-flanked on the conservative side of the ledger badly by Alan Keyes who dramatically outed both the other two. But due to his failed efforts at fund-raising he could not compete.
Wish it weren't that way. But that was the way it went down.
The Republicans need to win CA, and NY to win Presidential elections? Where did you come up with that?
Such as?
Your many explanations of why these don't indicate conservative progress don't negate that.
Yes they do. I have barely BEGUN to list all the betrayals committed by this phoney.
“It’s proof that a Pro-Life third party would be idiotic, not proof that Rudy can’t win.”
So I take it that you would have no problem sacrificing your principles? Or, maybe you don’t have any...
Listed them already in response to a comment that "nothing conservative" has been going on.
Read the thread.
It's just you. LOL! Don't get mad, I couldn't help it.
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