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27% of Republicans Would Vote for Pro-Life Third Party Instead of Giuliani (Proof Rudy CAN'T Win)
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10-4-07 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 10/04/2007 9:38:23 AM PDT by TitansAFC

If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and a third party campaign is backed by Christian conservative leaders, 27% of Republican voters say they’d vote for the third party option rather than Giuliani. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.

Over this past weekend, several Christian conservative leaders indicated they might back a pro-life, third-party, candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.

The latest poll highlights the potential challenges for Giuliani, but the numbers must be considered in context. A generic third-party candidate may attract 14% of the vote in the abstract at this time. However, if a specific candidate is chosen, that person would likely attract less support due to a variety of factors. Almost all third party candidates poll higher earlier in a campaign and their numbers diminish as election day approaches. Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote for Giuliani or help elect a Democrat.

The telephone survey found that 17% of Republicans believe it’s Very Likely conservative leaders would back a Pro-Life candidate if Giuliani is nominated. Another 32% believe it is Somewhat Likely. Among all voters, 22% think a third party approach is Very Likely and another 33% say it’s Somewhat Likely.

Most Republican voters consider themselves Pro-Life on the issue of Abortion. Most Democrats and Unaffiliated Voters are Pro-Choice.

The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.

With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. That’s down from 31% in a two-way race.

Among all voters, 49% say Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win a two-way match-up. That falls to 43% with a third party candidate in the mix.

Electability is a crucial issue for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters seen him as politically moderate or liberal. That is a challenge unto itself in a political party where most primary voters consider themselves politically conservative. Fred Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field.

Three of the last four Presidential elections have seen a candidate win with less than 50% of the total votes cast. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, there is a very reasonable possibility that neither major party candidate would top the 50% mark in Election 2008. With such a scenario, third party candidates on either side of the political spectrum could play a significant role by peeling away one or two percentage points of the vote.

Clinton is currently leading the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but her victory is not inevitable. Among Republicans, Thompson and Giuliani lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is" And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”

Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; giuliani; giulianitruthfile; rds; rudy
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To: Dudoight
Here we go again. Conservative third party puts another Clinton in the White House. Smart move.

A much smarter move than putting a liberal Republican in the White House...

61 posted on 10/04/2007 10:16:29 AM PDT by Ol' Sparky
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To: TitansAFC

and don’t forget the RON PAUL following, (who in my opinon) is being funded by moveon as to distract from the GOP.

62 posted on 10/04/2007 10:16:38 AM PDT by JFC
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To: bmwcyle

No lessons learned from Perot

63 posted on 10/04/2007 10:16:41 AM PDT by myuhaul
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To: TitansAFC

No question Rudy would get smoked with a pro-life 3rd party candidate in the race. But it’s a moot point, because Rudy ain’t gettin the nomination. The bloom is off the rose and the polls that count those most likely to vote in the pubbie primary show it clearly. No way a gun-grabbing, pro-abort, cross dressing northeast liberal wins in the primaries. The liberal press is already fantasizing about such a possibility but it will never be more than that, a fantasy.

64 posted on 10/04/2007 10:16:48 AM PDT by bereanway (Hunter in '08)
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To: TitansAFC
"Rudy911 is a whole new universe of leftism in the GOP."

It's not new. It's the Republican party pre-Reagan, very small, liberal, and out of power.

65 posted on 10/04/2007 10:17:08 AM PDT by penowa
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To: chuckles

We have plenty of pro-life candidates — today. What about yesterday?

66 posted on 10/04/2007 10:17:46 AM PDT by Stars&StripesNE (Liberals are the enemy within)
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To: TitansAFC

This is precisely the scenario I have been warning about for at least six months.

Giuliani, in addition to (and because of) being unacceptably liberal, cannot win.

67 posted on 10/04/2007 10:18:01 AM PDT by B Knotts (Tancredo '08!)
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To: HockeyPop
Nice fantasy.

If Rudy wouldn’t give that to us by now, he certainly won’t later. Plus, Roe is way too important to him to take a chance that it would be overturned.

68 posted on 10/04/2007 10:18:22 AM PDT by TitansAFC ("My 80% enemy is not my 20% friend" -- Common Sense)
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To: penowa
“Care to explain how that works because I certainly don’t understand how voting pro-abortion whether R or D saves any babies?”

Easy. Guili can be restrained by his party and the party's members. What you will see is no action on abortion for 4 or 8 years if Guili gets elected. It’s more of a prevent defense until the next election when you will have the opportunity to elect someone more to your liking.

Hillary will have no such restraints. If she gets it it will be open season on abortion legislation and judges. IF the dems continue to have a majority in both houses, you can kiss any progress you’ve made on your issue for the last twenty years goodbye.

Guili will keep things in stasis, Hillary will be pedal to the medal. Take your pick.

69 posted on 10/04/2007 10:18:25 AM PDT by Bob J (sis)
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To: Torie


70 posted on 10/04/2007 10:18:55 AM PDT by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
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To: going hot

Reminds me of how R's got so mad at Foley and Hastert last October Suprise that they sat out the election.

They were mad at what did they get?

A Speaker from gay San Francisco!

71 posted on 10/04/2007 10:19:29 AM PDT by what's up
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To: Bainbridge
I will hold my nose if I have to and save as many babies as possible.

Voting for someone that supports the slaughter of the unborn and the homosexual agenda is not only sinful, but STUPID.

If the Republicans abandon the pro-life position -- which they will be doing if Giuliani is elected -- the pro-life movement is essentially dead in both parties.

Get a brain.

72 posted on 10/04/2007 10:20:00 AM PDT by Ol' Sparky
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To: myuhaul
-—”No lessons learned from Perot”-—

Apparently not, as Rudy’s still in the running, and there are still faux Conservatives willing to vote for him if he gets the nod.

73 posted on 10/04/2007 10:20:23 AM PDT by TitansAFC ("My 80% enemy is not my 20% friend" -- Common Sense)
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To: inkling

You are 100% correct that Perot gave us Bubba...but, should the GOP abandon it’s pro-life platform and nominate are pro-abort, the majority of pro-lifers will stay home.

I have said for YEARS in my FR postings that the pro-life GOP voters are NOT a majority of the GOP, but that the GOP cannot win without their 28% (28% was my estimate of the GOP vote percentage they this poll backs up my estimate).

For the pro-life voter, it would voilate the very core of their being to vote for a pro-abort canidate in any party.

The liberal press has EGGED on the GOP to be more “moderate” and “tolerant” by offering a pro-abort canidate...when your ENEMIES encourage you to be more “inclusive”, you can bet that THEY understand that it would be the kiss of death for the GOP.

The BLUE BLOOD GOPers also want the GOP to adandon this “family values” stuff....I hope this poll shows them the peril if it does....the GOP is the REAL big and pro-abort are in its’ ranks...but it takes BOTH to win.

74 posted on 10/04/2007 10:20:30 AM PDT by Moby Grape
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To: ulm1

I have very few political illusions left at this point in my life. Once the Party finds it can field pro-abortion candidates with no consequence to them at the polls, you’ll find a lot more waffling on the issue to appeal to the so-called “moderates”. You can bank on that.

75 posted on 10/04/2007 10:21:07 AM PDT by Eepsy (The object of opening the mind, as of opening the mouth, is to shut it again on something solid.)
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To: myuhaul

“No lessons learned from Perot.”

I think the Perot voters learned their lesson, the problem is fewe of them were pro life Christians, who will make the same mistake then regret if for 8 years as the Perot voters did.

76 posted on 10/04/2007 10:21:27 AM PDT by Bob J (sis)
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To: TitansAFC

The Christian Right WILL GO TO THE POLLS AND VOTE for a Republican who is not hard-line against abortion in order to VOTE AGAINST someone who would EXPAND PUBLIC FUNDING FOR ABORTIONS, STEM CELL RESEARCH, ETC.
77 posted on 10/04/2007 10:21:33 AM PDT by davidlachnicht ("IF WE'RE ALL TO BE TARGETS, THEN WE ALL MUST BE SOLDIERS.")
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To: TitansAFC

I’m one of that 27%.

I won’t vote for a baby murderer for president.

78 posted on 10/04/2007 10:21:43 AM PDT by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
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To: what's up

Actually, every poll showed Conservatives came out in pretty good numbers. It was the middle that hated things most.

Our reward for all that loyalty and hard work? “Here’s Rudy, worship him or the terrorists will kill you!”

79 posted on 10/04/2007 10:22:12 AM PDT by TitansAFC ("My 80% enemy is not my 20% friend" -- Common Sense)
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To: penowa
how voting pro-abortion whether R or D saves any babies?

A Democrat would fill the administration with abortion advocates.

Much as many dislike Rudy, he will have liberals in his administration...sure.

But he will also appoint MANY conservatives to high positions. There would be a fight in his administration against him going too far left.

Not so with Hillary.

80 posted on 10/04/2007 10:22:36 AM PDT by what's up
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