We came so close to World War Three that day (More Info)

The Spectator ^ | October 3, 2007 | James Forsyth and Douglas Davis

[txhurl]

I haven't been able to fit the Minot nukes into my scenario which is taking this shape: There were possibly 5 targets: those three WMD sites on that map I post occasionally, that site on the Euphrates at the Turkish border, and one in Deiz al Zahr. I'm wondering, after the ship stopped in Egypt (to drop off material or pick up scientists?), then landed in Lebanon (ditto?), then unloaded at Tartous, if a Mossad guy wasn't at the dock, helping the unload.

He gave a count of items to the IDF, and trucks started taking the items to one or more sites.

Here's where their (and our) assets are warmed up to hit those five? sites. They start flying, 'jamming' (that's the word everybody's using) Syrian air defense, and one plane goes and drops some tanks at the border in Turkey. Turkey calls Syrian intel, tells them something just fell out of the sky, and Syrian Intel, knowing they're under attack, is confused and disorganized.

Then, 10 or so IDF guys disguised as Syrian military show up in a truck, take one of the items claiming they're taking it to that site on the Turkish border, and instead drive over into Turkey to load the item and themselves up on a plane back to Israel.

When they're at the border the Deiz al Zarh facility gets hit, as does that far Northern facility.

It could happen! :)

[flutters]

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[Kevmo]

The idea that Pakistani nuclear technology, controlled completely and solely by the Pakistani military, could somehow be given away by a single man for over a decade without the support of the Pakistani military at the highest levels is ridiculous.
***Good point

[shield]

One day we may know. Your theory sounds very plausible...

[txhurl]

Everybody feel free to blow holes in it :)

[txhurl]

Mr. Southack, your critique, if you will, Sir.

[jpl]

It's pretty interesting that this incident happened mere days after our military "accidentally" transported some nuclear weapons by plane to a different air base.

Sounds like some pretty high-stakes gamesmanship were indeed going on during that timeframe.

[Kevmo]

Beat me to it. Good one. ;-)

[this is my name not yours]

If a nuke was "blown to bits" there would be "bits" of plutonium scattered all about for us to detect (someone would have detected it by now).

If a ground penetrating nuke was used it would have been picked up on seismographs.

The logical conclusion I keep coming to (based on the information put forth) is that IDF agents grabbed an ASSEMBLED weapon just before the planes blew up the facility. I'll betcha the "big surprise" is the nuclear bomb that Iran (via NK or Pakistan) was fixin' to cook Tel Aviv with.

[Southack]

Oh, you’ve got a good theory. Could be correct.

The problem that I have is that Syria has no compelling reason to possess something that would cause/give-excuse-for the U.S. or Israel to nuke Syria.

Consider that Syria has the largest chemical WMD program in the Mid-East. Nukes offer very little killing power over that arsenal...and both require delivery vehicles.

But if Syria gets a nuke, then Israel and the U.S. have carte blanc to nuke Syria at a whim.

So I lean more toward a major terror leader being the target of the 9/6 raids. Could have just been long range ICBM’s that were finally modified to accept city-killer-sized chemical WMD warheads, too. Next theory in line would be some form of massive currency counterfeiting operation.

but yeah, it could have been a nuke there.

Were ground teams there? Absolutely. Could have been unmanned ground vehicles, SCUBA teams in the river, SpecOps, or a variety of options, but there was an Isreali ground presence there and yes, drop tanks *could* have been planted in Turkey (though I presume it more likely that the drop tanks were real as they were sighted by Syria’s radar).

[Kevmo]

That makes the most sense.

Assuming there’s no radiation smoke rising from the site it would be kinda telling. If I had planned the raid, there would be a small nuclear radiation leak with the smoke because the best way to set back the program a couple of decades is to make the area radioactive and they’d have to clean it up, not suspecting the nuke was stolen.

[Kevmo]

I’ll continue to believe that this was an exercise to show up the Russians’ hottest antiaircraft stuff, and to wipe out a multinational terrorist installation.
***There’s no reason to tip your hand when it’s just an ‘exercise’. You’d risk the fact that the Iranians could figure out how the spoofing was done and you’d be risking thousands of American lives.

[txhurl]

My model has those tanks dropped so the disguised IDF guys with the 'item' have a reason to drive a borrowed Syrian truck over to the border to 'investigate' it amid all the chaos.

And the 'item' could be anything, even a HVT (human) like you suggest.

[Scythian]

Me too, la la la I can’t hear you, now pass the gravy ...

[steve86]

I’ll continue to believe that this was an exercise to show up the Russians’ hottest antiaircraft stuff

It isn't the hottest stuff. It is the export stuff and is dummied down just like ours is. Considering the destination, it was probably maximally dumbed down.

[Scythian]

World War III ??? A World War is a catasrophic series of escalating events culminating in massive military mobilizations and subsequent death and destruction. If Syria/Iran were to set off a nuke device in Israel we would wipe their miniscule presence off the face of the earth in a matter of minutes...Game Over - would that be WW III?

That was true once, but no longer, I guarantee you we would not take such an action, no way, no how.

[BigFinn]

I read this last night...

[Constitution Day]

read later...

[kidd]

...within hours a band of elite Israeli commandos had secretly crossed into Syria and headed for the town. Soil samples and other material they collected there were returned to Israel. Sure enough, they indicated that the cargo was nuclear.

How did the authors obtain this very important bit of information about the procedure?

[Kevmo]

You probably intended that comment for SunkenCiv, freeper extroardinaire.