Posted on 10/04/2007 1:52:15 PM PDT by Lorianne
Determining which industries aren't long for this world may seem easy enough. But some types of businesses, such as telemarketing, are surprisingly hard to kill. And then again, other industries, probably the ones you're sad to see go, can't find a way to survive.
So start setting up your office pool, because here are our picks for 10 businesses facing extinction in 10 years.
RECORD STORES: Record stores are closing in, well, record numbers. One of the most prominent music retailers, Tower Records, shut down all 89 stores last year after concluding it couldn't withstand the onslaught of online music stores and chains like Wal-Mart, which can offer lower prices and sell other items to offset the smaller number of CDs being sold. Odds of survival in 10 years: Great, if you consider Wal-Mart a record store.
CAMERA FILM MANUFACTURING: This probably isn't the best business to get into right now. According to The Chicago Tribune, from May 2006 to May 2007, the volume of prints made from digital cameras grew by 34 percent. Film camera sales, meanwhile, fell by 49 percent, while digital cameras sales continued to grow--by 5 percent. Of American internet users, 70 percent own a digital camera; another survey shows that 70 percent of Canadians now use a digital camera. Odds of survival in 10 years: Some entrepreneurs who specialize in making camera film for amateur photographers could possibly make a living.
CROP DUSTERS: They'll be around in 10 years, but likely not in their present form. The average age of the typical crop duster is 60, the number of crop dusters is dwindling, and the profession can be dangerous. Just several weeks ago, an Arkansas crop dusting company was ordered to stop flying in Iowa after spraying farm workers with a fungicide; 36 farm hands in a cornfield had to be decontaminated by a hazardous materials crew. Odds of survival in 10 years: The type of crop dusting plane that chased after Cary Grant in North by Northwest will have almost certainly gone south. Farmers say that they'll always need crop dusters, even though new technologies have made them less important than in the past. But commercial airlines are increasingly taking business away from the small, independent crop dusters.
GAY BARS: As The Orlando Sentinel noted in a recent article, around the country gay bars have been going out of business as gay men and women have been gaining greater acceptance in society. What used to be a hangout for people who felt unwelcome elsewhere is becoming less necessary.
Odds of survival in 10 years: As with many industries, the very best of them will endure; the rest won't.
NEWSPAPERS: Some people thought they were through when radio and TV news came about. Even after the fax machine revolutionized offices, some people predicted that everyone would have their news faxed in, since that would be quicker than relying on a newspaper. But the numbers have been falling precipitously since the 1990s when the internet came on the scene. In the past year, the Audit Bureau of Circulations twice has posted drops averaging 2.1 and 2.8 percent over six-month periods. Newsrooms across the country have been hemorrhaging staff.
Odds of survival in 10 years: They won't disappear; they'll be on the internet. We don't recommend startups investing a lot of money into a printing press plant.
PAY PHONES: In 1997, there were more than 2 million pay phones in the U.S.; now there are approximately half as many. There are probably always going to be certain places like airports and hotels that offer pay phones, as long as there are people who don't own or can't afford cell phones. Because phone kiosks on the streets are a favorite for drug dealers, who don't want to have their own numbers tapped and tracked, cities are shedding them.
Odds of survival in 10 years: They'll be around, but won't be anything to call home about.
USED BOOKSTORES: They've been closing fast, and those that are still open are relying on what's making them obsolete: the internet. A used bookstore used to be the place to find that beloved, out-of-print children's book you used to read 17 times a day until your little sister flushed it down the toilet. Now you just type that title in a search engine and order it within minutes. Odds of survival in 10 years: Some of them will still be eking out an existence, but the handwriting is on the wall.
PIGGY BANKS: You may chuckle, but as we continue gravitating toward a paperless society, it's not difficult to imagine a day when piggy banks no longer exist.
Odds of survival in 10 years: Sure, they'll probably still be a few around--in antique shops.
TELEMARKETING: The good news for people who hate telemarketing calls is that the industry may finally be dying; the bad news is that it may take a while. Telemarketing has been hit hard by the national Do-Not Call list that was established five years ago, and sales have been stagnant, but the industry still managed to bring in $393 billion in revenue last year. Some of this is due to clever marketing. This includes holding raffles at shopping malls; when you sign your information, you agree to accept calls from the company running the contest and its partners. Cell phones are exempt from automated telemarketing calls, but not from individuals calling. Then there are occasional windows of opportunity: The national Do-Not Call list is set to expire in 2008, unless you remember to register again.
Odds of survival in 10 years: They'll be here. Humbled, more impotent, but probably still here.
COIN-OPERATED ARCADES: With Nintendo Wii, casual gaming online and the Xbox 360, the video game arcade industry is thriving, but not the standalone brick-and-mortar arcades. For those of you who thought arcades were already dead, they still exist--at movie theaters, miniature golf courses and other touristy spots--but it seems only a matter of time before they vanish from the landscape. Ten years ago, there were 10,000 arcades in the nation, and now the number is close to 3,000, according to the American Amusement Machine Association. Revenue from arcade game units brought in $866 million last year, which sounds good until you consider that in 1994, the industry was pocketing $2.3 billion and that the profits are only still high because it costs so much to play a game.
Odds of survival in 10 years: Game over.
flea markets - replaced by eBay
personal stock brokers - replaced by on-line stock trading
But what *should* be replaced by new technology and what *will* be replaced are different beasts altogether...
For instance:
car dealerships (manufacturers are prohibited by law from selling direct to bypass dealerships)
Casinos (internet gambling is illegal...not technically impossible)
Unions
Middle Management
Car inspections (On-Star self-diagnostics and email, anyone?!)
Phone numbers (remember back when we had internet numbers instead of names for email addresses?!)
Gay bars will remain. It isn’t about acceptance. They want to hook up with likeminded people, not drink with someone all night and no prospect of sex.
(((I think used book stores will outlive some of the other businesses.
I agree. It’s fun to browse through shelves and shelves of dusty old books. Much more fun that searching online!
The biggest reason to drop a technology is lack of support (parts, retailers, etc.).
Kodak getting out of darkroom photo paper may have done a lot to keep the other companies in business. Some people are already stocking their papers they use in refrigerators.
“USED BOOKSTORES: They’ve been closing fast, and those that are still open are relying on what’s making them obsolete: the internet... Now you just type that title in a search engine and order it within minutes.”
Not so fast. Still have to warehouse all that inventory someplace and THAT is the store. Bookfinder.com is a NETWORK of booklists. Book dealers more than many other resale merchants have long been networked to share inventory lists (they would run a booksearch for you, now you can do it yourself with www.bookfinder.com).
But those are still BOOK STORES that you are buying from. Not everything is in print and ebay isn’t the end all be all of resale.
A coworker recently bought a Sony Reader, which if you don’t know is a super-slick e-book viewer that doesn’t use any power to display a page - just to ‘turn’ pages. I held it and read a couple pages. It’s cool but there is a certain comforting je ne sais quoi about a paper book.
That's blasphemy! Flea markets are a cult religion...it's not what you buy, it is the experience...and PayPal sucks!
Daily newspapers are obsolete. They are 8-48 hours out of date when they go to press (except sports scores). Then they hit your doorstep (there is no other home delivery by private interests everyday anymore).
And ebay/monster.com/et al are eating their classified ad money.
Nightly News at 5:30pm is outmoded too. There are 24 hour news networks. You can get the news when you want it.
Those national news broadcasts only offered about 8 minutes of news anyway. They also gave focus stories and canned medical reports.
Movie Theaters won’t go away. Just because the home theater experience is available doesn’t mean that people who go to the movies can afford it. I still enjoy going to the movie theaters because my house isn’t big enough for theater quality.
If Hillary wins... Let’s see.... What would the list look like then?
To find something on ebay, you have to know what you are already searching for, or looking over a vendor’s list for a second thing to buy, or looking at a category.
At a flea market, it is all of “equal” weight. Something jumps out at you, it is a hunt.
Again, the people who sell on ebay will sell in both places, first buyer takes it.
I don’t know if casinos should disappear. Gambling is more fun when it’s social, and frankly no one should trust a computerized house, and way don’t trust computerized physics for games like craps or roulette. And car dealerships should never be replaced by online, not because they’re so awesome but because you should always test drive a car before buying it.
And I don’t think flea markets will be replaced by anything, flea markets are really an impulse shopping thing, E-Bay is a hard place to wander around in. Online shopping is geared towards you deciding what you want to look for then looking for it, flea markets are geared towards you not knowing what you want and seeing something that looks cool.
Private Practice Medical Care would be put on the same level as prostitution when it came to charging for services.
I'm not an expert photographer, but I'll bet that regular film will last a long time. I believe that vacuum-tube stereos are still available for those that want the very best.
#11 A Ron Paul Presidential Campaign
CAIR Spokesman...
And just as illegal in Hillary’s world
Piggy Banks are a business?
"Rubber roads that lead nowhere!
Watches that won't melt!
Cheap art, and compulsive education!
Digital beds!
Antproof casters!
Easy, affordable, efficient!
And all this by----Sixty-one!"
--From The Tail of the Giant Rat of Sumatra, The Firesign Theatre.
Yes and no. People aren't going to carry a computer around with them on their daily commute or hunker over one at breakfast unless they become as light and disposable as paper. You don't want to spill coffee on your laptop. I thought Babylon 5 had the right idea (their Universe Today paper): the newspaper is customized for the reader at the vending machine. You select your favorite topics, and a newspaper is printed on the spot customized to you. If we can get printing of disposable/recyclable paper very fast (<20 seconds) into a kiosk or vending size area, I think this idea could work. We have printers that are fast, but can they print on newspaper-grade paper? Anyone up to developing this with me?
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