What sparked the deadly clashes in tribal Pakistan

Rediff ^ | October 10, 2007 | B Raman

[Gengis Khan]

Musharraf never fully controlled those areas. And there never is any “unity” among Muslims unless there is a substantial foreign threat involved that always brings them closer.

The “safe heaven” has allowed these groups to breed to the extent that now each faction is strong enough to assert their authority and there are others equally strong enough to challenge them. These clashes are actually a showdown over who is in control of the region.

Pakistan army has very little control on the ground which is why they have to resort to air strikes. Contrary to what many actually believe here at FR, Pakistan is just defending its ground against the jihadis. Not trying to fight a WOT but trying to prevent one and maintain status quo while the jihadis want to grow beyond the restricted boundaries of Waziristan and Mir Ali.

Going all out against those jihadi groups would spark a mutiny within the army.

[Gengis Khan]

The “safe havens” inside Pakistan has been breeding terrorist to the extent that its now reached a situation where different groups are competing to assert their authority over the region.

Earlier in Afghanistan they were under the onslaught of a bigger enemy and were on the run. The need for survival was the main factor that kept them united. Today they go virtually unopposed and unchallenged. They have re-established Taliban-Al Qeada territory within Pakistan and in order to grow out of their restricted boundaries they have been fuelling Taliban (Red Mosque) style madrassas very close to Islamabad (Pakistani heartland).

Pakistan army’s attempt to test the waters inside Wazirstan has met with a rude shock. They realised they have no control on the ground and so need to conduct air strikes. To little to late.

[Gengis Khan]

US has all for now resisted any attempt to make cross border incursions into Pakistan.

The biggest reason being that its not likely to work unless it uses substantial amount of force while entering Pakistan amounting to full scale invasion of Pakistan. That will not be liked by the Pakistan army.

Smaller incursion operations without sufficient knowledge of local conition and ground level intelligence will achieve little other then heavy casualties.

The other option is to bomb the area which will incurr heavy civilian casualty. After Iraq, US lacks the political will to go once again down that lane, better to get Pakistan to do the dirty job. And Pakistani strikes are only aimed at maintain status quo not an all out WOT.