Nobody was calling Intrade Cow-patty BINGO back when FDT was at 35%, check out the scores of celebratory posts:
Now that FDT is at 16%, why that Intrade is unreliable, you can no more trust it than a McCain tough on border pledge.
Thus the Fredheads multiply their explanations. The one robust explanation that FDT is a weak candidate won't do, so all evidence that suggests FDT is weak is dismissed in detail through multiple explanations. The pundits are biased, the polls unreliable, the reporters have agendas, Intrade is foreign, the fund raising is undercounted, the speech wasn't that bad, the interview wasn't disappointing, etc. etc.
Occam's razor states that the truth is the single not the multiple explanations. Thus:
But Fredheads, proud Fredheads,
Seeing Fred lose a little authority,
Make such multiple explanations before Free Republic,
As would make Occam weep.
OTOH, there is no way that I can stomach a Hitlary (or any democRAT) in the Oval Office (again).
Yours was the first Intrade reference I've seen re this election.
My point was that I see no more reason to trust Intrade numbers than I have reason to trust those from any online poll that can be FReeped (or, more specifically, "DUped").