“So Goldwater, what does your analysis portend for Missus Clinton’s presidential run?”
If my hypothesis is correct and male Republicans are less likely to vote for female Democrats than for male Democrats because it is harder for the female Democrat to project a “conservative” or “moderate” image, then it does not look good for Hillary Clinton. Basically, she needs to do as well as her husband did in 1992 and 1996 in order to win 51%-49%, and if male Republicans who voted for Bill Clinton won’t vote for Hillary, then she can’t win.
BTW, the reason why I say that doing as well as Bill would give her a 51%-49% win is that that would be pretty close to Bill Clinton’s popular-vote margin in both 1992 and 1996 when one adjusts for the Perot factor (had Perot not been on the ballot, Bill Clinton would have gotten between 50%-51% of the popular vote in both 1992 and 1996, between 264-283 electoral votes in 1992, and between 268-291 EVs in 1996).
At the same time, perhaps some Democrat voters will be more willing to vote for a female Republican, as it’s easier for her to project a moderate image.