I have a one word answer for you right now:
Ohio.
As it goes, so goes the electoral college.
OHIO has always been the bellweather for Republicans
And I have told the Pubbies here (everytime they call or solicit funds) that it’s the ballot initiatives that get the voters out.
When President Bush beat sKerry, the ballot initiative was defense of marriage.
This last election, the Dems had a ballot initiative that was a constitutional ammendment to tie the minimum wage to the Consumer Price Index, and it passed overwhelmingly up in Cleveland cemetery precincts giving us that butthead Sherrod Brown (”lets pass the immigration bill and then we can talk about how high to build a fence and how many border patrol agents we need”).