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Thanks for showing your level of immaturity. I guess anybody who disagrees with you is automatically a liberal troll. Have you graduated high school yet?

The fact is, there are plenty of financial analysts predicting doom and gloom. And there are plenty predicting a recession. There are also plenty saying we will avoid recession, the tanking USD is a good thing for the economy and the bull market will continue.

Ask 10 Economists, get 20 answers.

I am bearish on housing, on equities and on GDP growth in the short term. I assume Hydrashock is as well, from reading his posts

I was called a lot of things in 1998 when I said the stock market was in a massive bubble of funny money and couldn’t continue. Maybe I was year later, but I wasn’t one who lost my butt in the sell-off, unlike young coworkers I pleaded with NOT to invest. I knew young people who lost $40,000 or $50,000 in tech stocks who bought the “new economy” mantra.

I was called a lot of things in 2004 when I said that housing appreciation was so far over and beyond salaries that even the low interest rates couldn’t explain the soaring house appreciation, and again there was funny money pushing up house prices. I wish some of the younger coworkers hadn’t bought in 2005, but they wouldn’t listen.

Now I am bearish on the stock market. With 70% of GDP depending on consumer spending, with so much consumer spending dependent on mortgage extraction and credit card debt, with so many international businesses like those in China very heavily dependent on exports to the USA, with negative wealth effect due to downward housing prices and tight credit, with sweet crude at an all time high and with the dollar at an all time low (tempting those floating our national debt to put their money elsewhere or choose reserves in currencies other than the USD), it is obvious to me there is a very serious risk that the stock market will see losses that are greater than any historic 10% correction, and this knowing that the current bull market keeps bouncing back from even that level of correction.

Nobody has a crystal ball, but it is worth the bulls taking off the optimistic blinders for a minute to ask if the nation’s economic health is really that strong in light of everything I’ve written above.

I don’t see anything wrong with members like Hydroshock pointing these things out. I have no clue his motivation, but my motivation is a hope that if the market tanks like I fear it will, then the blind bulls are going to be hurt financially. It might be worth it to hedge a bit there.

On the other hand, if you really are bullish on the market, then help me out and let me know all of the bullish indicators you see out there. Because even while international business is doing well and the US consumer is still spending, though starting to reduce spending, and even though a weak dollar will help exports, I’m having real difficulty seeing businesses continue to grow at a healthy pace when the US consumer pulls back.

The market is nothing but greed and fear. Greed worked great the past 5 years as a housing bubble supported insane levels of consumer spending, on the back of insane historic levels of massive consumer debt. If fear should hit the market, it will be a blood bath. I don’t see the market tanking that bad, but I think a 20% correction is a no brainer when the bull market finally rolls over.

In any event, I respectfully disagree with the short term bulls, but at least I’m not resorting to slandering people as liberal trolls. You don’t have to stoop that low.