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I really think that with the competitiveness in the early states, that Fred must with SC in a landslide. That is not as important for the others, because they have multiple strong states either right before, or right after to help them out.

Mitt will have the Iowa, NH momentum. Rudy should have a strong NH, Florida win, and other big states to follow.

Even a solid middle of the road win in all of the states is good for McCain because he will have the staying power, so Fred must have a very, very strong showing in SC to keep it going.

Am I right that Georgia also splits their delegates more than others? Or am I thinking of one of the other southern states that Fred is hanging his hat on.

It is very unlikely that Mitt will win Iowa and, if he wins New Hampshire he won’t impress anyone. Paul Tsogas won New Hampshire in 1992. Fat lot of good it did him.

Heartbreaking as it may be for his partisans, Mitt isn’t very appealing to real voters. Human beings don’t much like androids. Predicting that he will rise above the pack in Iowa because he is strong in the polls there after months of unanswered advertising is just silly. He is a badly flawed candidate and the smart money says he’ll sink like a stone when the real voting starts. He may even be third in Iowa behind Thompson and Huckabee (in any order).

If, as I anticipate, Mitt gets creamed in Iowa his candidacy is over. He can’t recover in New Hampshire and he won’t recover anywhere else. If, as is quite likely, Thompson wins Iowa, South Carolina and Florida the game is over and everyone else can go home. If Huckabee wins Iowa and Thompson is second, more or less the same result follows. Huckabee can’t capitalize on an Iowa win. He hasn’t got the money or the ideological orientation to make a serious run.

If Mitt can win Iowa he will be a serious candidate. If he can’t he’s toast. I’m betting he can’t. We shall see.